IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Case StudiesChapter 99.2.2.5. Outcomes/ConsequencesFollowing the findings from the various inquiries into the 2009 VictorianBushfires, which found failings in assumptions, policies, andimplementation, a number of far-reaching recommendations weredeveloped (Parliament of Victoria, 2010c). National responses have beenadopted through the National Emergency Management Committee,including: (i) revised bushfire safety policies to enhance the roles ofwarning and personal responsibility; (ii) increased fuel reduction burningon public lands; (iii) community refuges established in high-risk areas; (iv)improved coordination and communication between fire organizations;(v) modifying the ‘Prepare, stay and defend, or leave early’ approach (now‘Prepare, act, survive’) to recognize the need for voluntary evacuationson extreme fire days; and (vi) further ongoing investment in bushfireresearch, including a national research center.9.2.2.6 Lessons IdentifiedAustralia has recognized the need for strengthening risk managementcapacities through measures including: (i) prior public campaigns forrisk awareness; (ii) enhanced information and warning systems; (iii)translation of messages of awareness and preparedness into universalaction; (iv) sharing responsibility between government and the people;(v) development of integrated plans; and (vi) greater investment in riskmitigation and adaptation actions.Predicted changes in future climate will only exacerbate the impact ofother factors through increased likelihood of extreme fire danger days(Hennessy et al., 2005). We are already seeing the impact of many factorson wildfires and heat waves, for example, demographic and land usechanges. In the future, a better understanding of the interplay of all thecausal factors is required. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commissionstated “It would be a mistake to treat Black Saturday as a ‘one off’event. With populations at the rural-urban interface growing and theimpact of climate change, the risks associated with bushfire are likely toincrease” (Parliament of Victoria, 2010c).9.2.3. Managing the Adverse Consequences of Drought9.2.3.1. IntroductionWater is a critical resource throughout the world (Kundzewicz et al.,2007). Drought can increase competition for scarce resources, causepopulation displacements and migrations, and exacerbate ethnictensions and the likelihood of conflicts (Barnett and Adger, 2007;Reuveny, 2007; UNISDR, 2011a). Mediterranean countries are prone todroughts that can heavily impact agricultural production, cause economiclosses, affect rural livelihoods, and may lead to urban migration(UNISDR, 2011b). This case study focuses on Syria as one of thecountries that has been affected by drought in recent years (2007-2010)(Erian et al., 2011).9.2.3.2. BackgroundThe Eastern Mediterranean region is subject to frequent soil moisturedroughts, and in areas where annual rainfall ranges between 120-150and 400 mm, rain-fed crops are strongly affected (Erian et al., 2011).During the period from 1960 to 2006, a severe decrease in annual rainfallhas been documented in some major cities in Syria. These reductions wererelated to decreases in spring and winter rainfall (Skaff and Masbate,2010). The negative trend in precipitation in Syria during the pastcentury and the beginning of the 21st century is of a similar magnitudeto that predicted by most general circulation models for the Mediterraneanregion in the coming decades (Giannakopoulos et al., 2009).9.2.3.3. Description of EventsSyria is considered to be a dry and semi-arid country (FAO and NAPC,2010). Three-quarters of the cultivated land depends on rainfall and theannual rate is less than 350 mm in more than 90% of the overall area(FAO, 2009; FAO and NAPC, 2010). Syria has a total population of 22million people, 47% of whom live in rural areas (UN, 2011). TheNational Programme for Food Security in the Syrian Arab Republicreported that in the national economy of Syria, the agricultural and ruralsector is vital, but with the occurrence of frequent droughts, this sector isless certain of maintaining its contribution of about 20 to 25% of GDPand employment of about 38 to 47% of the work force (UNRCS andSARPCMSPC, 2005; FAO and NAPC, 2010).The prolonged drought, that in 2011 was in its fourth consecutive year,has affected 1.3 million people, and the loss of the 2008 harvest hasaccelerated migration to urban areas and increased levels of extremepoverty (UN, 2009, 2011; Sowers et al., 2011). During the 2008-2009winter grain-growing season there were significant losses of both rain-fedand irrigated winter grain crops (USDA, 2008a). This was exacerbated byabnormally hot spring temperatures (USDA, 2008a). Wheat productiondecreased from 4,041 kt in 2007 to 2,139 kt in 2008, an almost 50%reduction (SARPMETT, 2010). Of the farmers who depended on rain-fedproduction, most suffered complete or near-total loss of crops (FAO,2009). Approximately 70% of the 200,000 affected farmers in the rainfedareas have produced minimal to no yields because seeds were notplanted due to poor soil moisture conditions or failed germination(USDA, 2008b; FAO, 2009).Herders in the region were reported to have lost around 80% of theirlivestock due to barren grasslands, and animal feed costs rose by 75%,forcing sales at 60 to 70% below cost (FAO, 2008). Many farmers andherders sold off productive assets, eroding their source of livelihoods,with only few small-scale herders retaining a few animals, possibly asfew as 3 to 10% (FAO, 2009).Drought has affected the livelihoods of small-scale farmers and herders,threatening food security and having negative consequences for entirefamilies living in affected areas (FAO, 2009; UN, 2009). It is estimated498