IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 9Case StudiesTable 9-1 | Matrix demonstrating the connectivity between the case studies (9.2.1-9.2.14) and the Summary for Policymakers messages. Those with the strongest relationship are shown. Connectivity between the case studies and theHyogo Framework for Action Priority Areas (UNISDR, 2005b) are also shown.A. ContextKey MessageExposure and vulnerability are key determinants of disaster risk.A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity,spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather andclimate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weatherand climate events.9.2.1 9.2.2 9.2.3 9.2.4 9.2.5 9.2.6 9.2.7 9.2.8 9.2.9 9.2.10 9.2.11 9.2.12 9.2.13 9.2.14•Hotweatherandwildfires• •Drought Dzud Cyclones Floods EpidemicDisease•••••HeatwavesMegacitiesSIDS ColdClimateEWS Legislation RiskTransferEducationB. Observationsof Exposure,Vulnerability,ClimateExtremes,Impacts, andDisaster LossesExposure and vulnerability are dynamic, varying across temporaland spatial scales, and depend on economic, social, geographic,demographic, cultural, institutional, governance, andenvironmental factors.Settlement patterns, urbanization, and changes in socioeconomicstatus have all influenced observed trends in exposure andvulnerability to climate extremes.••••••C. Disaster RiskManagement andAdaptation toClimate Change:Past Experiencewith ClimateExtremesTrends in exposure and vulnerability are major drivers of changesin disaster risk.Inequalities influence local coping and adaptive capacity, andpose disaster risk management and adaptation challenges fromthe local to national levels.Humanitarian relief is often required when disaster risk reductionmeasures are absent or inadequate.••••••••••Post-disaster recovery and reconstruction provide an opportunityfor reducing weather and climate-related disaster risk and forimproving adaptive capacity.••••Risk sharing and transfer mechanisms at local, national, regional,and global scales can increase resilience to climate extremes.••Attention to the temporal and spatial dynamics of exposure andvulnerability is particularly important given that the design andimplementation of adaptation and disaster risk managementstrategies and policies can reduce risk in the short term, but mayincrease exposure and vulnerability over the longer term.••Closer integration of disaster risk management and climatechange adaptation, along with the incorporation of both intolocal, subnational, national, and international developmentpolicies and practices, could provide benefits at all scales.• • • •D. Future ClimateExtremes,Impacts, andDisaster LossesModels project substantial warming in temperature extremes bythe end of the 21st century.It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or theproportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the21st century over many areas of the globe.••••There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reducedprecipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration.•Continued next page`491