IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Toward a Sustainable and Resilient FutureChapter 8FAQ 8.2 | Are transformational changes desirable and even possible, and if so, who will lead them?Transformation in and of itself is not always desirable. It is a complex process that involves changes at the personal, cultural, institutional,and systems levels. Transformation can imply the loss of the familiar, which can create a sense of disequilibrium and uncertainty. Insome cases, notable changes in the nature, form, or appearance of a system or process may be inconsistent with the values and preferencesof some groups. Transformation can thus be perceived as threatening by some and instrumental by others, as the potential for real orperceived winners and losers at different scales stimulates social unease or tension. Desirable or not, it is important to recognize thattransformations are now occurring at an unprecedented rate and scale, influenced by globalization, social and technological development,and environmental change. Climate change itself represents a system-scale transformation that will have widespread consequences forecology and society, including through changes in climate extremes. Responses to climate change and changes in disaster risk can beboth incremental and transformational. Transformational responses are not always radical or monumental – sometimes they simplyinvolve a questioning of assumptions or viewing a problem from a new perspective. Transformational responses are not only possible,but they can be facilitated through learning processes, especially reflexive learning that explores blind spots in current thinking andapproaches to disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. However, because there are risks and barriers, transformationalso calls for leadership – not only from authority figures who hold positions and power, but from individuals and groups who are ableto connect present-day actions with their values, and with a collective vision for a sustainable and resilient future. Considering thebalance between incremental and transformative adjustments flags the importance of scale: first, because of the opportunities forenhancing leadership capacity that come from greater involvement of those locally at risk or undertaking adaptive experimentation forrisk management; and second, because of the potential for transformation, incremental change, or stability at one systems level or sector(e.g., administrative, social, technical) to provoke or restrict adjustments in other systems and scales. Inter-scale and inter-sectoralcommunication therefore become important tools for managing adaptive disaster risk management.important to recognize that many change initiatives create uncertaintyand disequilibria, and are considered disruptive or disorienting (Heifetzet al., 2009). Furthermore, vested interests seldom choose transformation,particularly when there is much to lose from change (Christensen, 1997).As discussed in Section 8.5.2, there are winners and losers not only fromextreme climate and weather events, but also from responses.Consequently, fundamental change is often resisted by the people that itaffects the most (Kotter, 1996; Kegan and Lahey, 2009). Helping people,groups, organizations, and governments to manage the resultingdisequilibria is seen as essential to successful transformation.Many of the recent approaches to change and transformation focus onlearning organizations, and the importance of changing individual andcollective mindsets or mental models (Senge, 1990; Heifetz et al., 2009;Kegan and Lahey, 2009; Scharmer, 2009). This transformational changeliterature distinguishes between technical problems that can beaddressed through management based on existing organizational andinstitutional structures and cultural norms, and adaptive challenges thatrequire a change in mindsets, including changes in assumptions, beliefs,priorities, and loyalties (Heifetz et al., 2009; Kegan and Lahey, 2009).Treating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation astechnical problems may focus attention only on improving technologies,reforming institutions, or managing displaced populations, whereasviewing them as an adaptive challenge shifts attention toward gapsbetween values and behaviors (e.g., values that promote human securityversus policies or behaviors that undermine health and livelihoods),beliefs (e.g., a belief that disasters are inevitable or that adaptation willoccur autonomously), and competing commitments (e.g., a commitmentto maintaining aid dependency or preserving social hierarchies).Although most problems have both technical and adaptive elements,treating an adaptive challenge only as a technical problem limitssuccessful outcomes (Heifetz et al., 2009).Transformative changes that move society towards the path ofopenness and adaptability depend not only on changes in mindsets, butalso on changes in systems and structures. Case studies of socialecologicalsystems suggest that there are three phases involved in systemstransformations. The first phase includes being prepared, or preparingthe system, for change. The second phase calls for navigating thetransition by making use of a sudden crisis as an opportunity forchange, whether the crisis is real or perceived. The third phase involvesbuilding resilience of the new system (Olsson et al., 2004; Chapin et al.,2010). Traditional management approaches emphasize the reduction ofuncertainties, with the expectation that this will lead to systems thatcan be predicted and controlled. However, in the case of climate change,future projections of climate variables and extremes will containuncertainty (see Section 3.2.3). Consequently, there is a need formanagement approaches that are adaptive and robust in the presenceof large and irreducible uncertainties.8.6.3. Facilitating Transformational ChangeAdapting to climate and weather extremes associated with rapid andsevere climate change, such as a warming beyond 4°C within thiscentury, without transformational policy and social change will bedifficult: if not chosen through proactive policies, forced transformationsand crises are likely to result (New et al., 2011). Adaptation that is466