IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 8Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future(2009) applied four scenarios over three time periods to floodmanagement. Through a wide consultation process, it was determinedthat improving the current infrastructure continues to be the preferredstrategy until 2070, when construction of an outer barrage may becomejustifiable, especially as economic and climate change conditionschange over time.Evaluating choices among different options depends on how thestakeholders view the region in coming decades, and on adaptationdecisions that are informed by political processes. One scenarioapproach that explicitly acknowledges both social and environmentaluncertainties entails identification of flexible adaptation pathways formanaging the future risks associated with climate change (Yohe andLeichenko, 2010). Based on principles of risk management (whichemphasize the importance of diversification and risk-spreadingmechanisms in order to improve social and/or private welfare in situationsof profound uncertainty), this approach can be used to identify asequence of adaptation strategies that are designed to keep society ator below acceptable levels of risk. These strategies, which policymakers,stakeholders, and experts develop and implement, are expected toevolve over time as knowledge of climate change and associated climatehazards progresses. The flexible adaptation or adaptive managementapproach that underpins this also stresses the connections betweenadaptation and mitigation of climate change, recognizing that climatechange mitigation will be needed in order to sustain society at or belowan acceptable level of risk (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010).In contrast to predictive scenarios and risk management approaches,exploratory and normative approaches can be used to develop scenariosthat represent desirable alternative futures. This is particularly importantin the case of sustainability, where the most likely futures may not bethe most desirable (Robinson, 2003), and where poverty, inequity, andinjustice are recognized by many as incompatible with sustainabledevelopment (Redclift 1987, 1992; St. Clair, 2010). Pathways thatrequire considerable transformation to reach sustainable futures of thiskind can be supported by backcasting techniques. The process ofbackcasting involves developing normative scenarios that explore thefeasibility and implications of achieving certain desired outcomes(Robinson, 2003; Carlsson-Kanyama et al., 2008). It is concerned withhow desirable futures can be attained, focusing on policy measures thatwould be required to reach such conditions. Participatory backcasting,which involves local stakeholders in visionary activities related tosustainable development, can also open deliberative opportunities andinclusiveness in decision framing and making. Where visioning isrepeated it can also open possibilities for tracking development andlearning processes that make up adaptive strategies for disaster riskmanagement, based on the explicit acknowledgement of the beliefs,values, and preferences of citizens (Robinson, 2003). Changing attitudesand core beliefs, including those on climate change, its causes, andconsequences, is a slow process (Volkery and Ribeiro, 2009).Adding an anticipatory dimension to planning for the future is criticalfor striving toward transformational actions in the face of multiple anddynamic uncertainties. The literature on anticipatory action learningprovides some experience on what this might look like (Stevenson,2002; Kelleher, 2005). The framing and negotiation of decisionmakingand policy is made inclusive and reflexive through multiple rounds ofstakeholder engagement to explore meanings of what different futuresmay involve, reflect upon unavoidable tradeoffs and the winners andlosers, and establish confidence to creatively adapt to new challenges(Inayatullah, 2006). This type of learning stresses the skills, knowledge,and visions of those at risk and aims to support leadership from eventhe most vulnerable. A combination of local- and global-scale scenariosthat link storylines developed at several organizational levels (Biggs etal., 2007), personalizing narratives to create a sense of ownership(Frittaion et al., 2010), and providing safe and repeated learning spaces(Kesby, 2005) can enhance learning.While scenarios, projections, and forecasts are all useful and importantinputs for planning, actual planning and decisionmaking is a complexsocio-political process involving different stakeholders and interactingagents. Although much progress has been made by employing scenariobuilding and narrative creation to explore uncertainties, surprises,extreme events, and tipping points, the transition from envisioning toplanning, policymaking, and implementation remains poorly understood(Lempert, 2007). Similarly, more widespread uptake of even scientificallyhighly robust scenarios may be hampered by conflicting understandingsof and practical approaches to uncertainty, different scalar needs, andlack of training among users (Gawith et al., 2009). Experiences inscenario building emphasize their usefulness for raising awareness onclimate change (Gawith et al., 2009). However, to move from framingpublic debates to policymaking and implementation, useful scenariobuilding requires procedural stability, permanent yet flexible institutionaland governance structures that build trust, and experience to takeadvantage of new insights for effective and fair risk management(Volkery and Ribeiro, 2009).Developing the capacity for adaptive learning to accommodatecomplexity and uncertainty requires exploratory and imaginative visionsfor the future that support choices and can accommodate multiple valuesand aspirations (Miller, 2007). Disaster risk management and climatechange adaptation, and synergies between the two, can contributetoward planning for a sustainable and resilient future, but this involvesexpanding the diversity of futures that are considered and identifyingthose that are desirable, as well as the short- and long-term values andactions that are consistent with them (Lempert, 2007).8.6.2. Approaches, Tools, and Integrating PracticesAs discussed above, scenarios, narrative storylines (Tschakert and Dietrich,2010) and simulations (Nicholls et al., 2007) can help to project andfacilitate discussion of possible futures. This section considers the toolsthat are available for helping decisionmakers and planners think aboutand plan for the future in the context of extreme climate and weatherevents. Past experiences with enhancing resilience to climate extremes463