IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Toward a Sustainable and Resilient FutureChapter 8and winners and losers inherent in adaptation responses (Eriksen andO’Brien, 2007; Ulsrud et al., 2008; Barnett and O’Neill, 2010; Beckman,2011; Brown, 2011; Eriksen et al., 2011; Gachathi and Eriksen, 2011;Owuor et al., 2011). Sustainable adaptation is defined as a processthat addresses the underlying causes of vulnerability and poverty,including ecological fragility; it is considered a way of generating socialtransformation, or changes in the fundamental attributes of society thatcontribute to vulnerability (Eriksen and O’Brien, 2007; Eriksen and Brown,2011).Disaster risk can be defined in many ways (see Section 1.1.2). In general,however, it is closely associated with the concepts of hazards, exposure,and vulnerability. Hazards are defined in this report as the potentialoccurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event that maycause negative consequences. Exposure is defined as the presence ofpeople, livelihoods, environmental services and resources, infrastructure,and economic, social, and cultural assets in places that could beadversely affected by climate extremes. Hazards and exposure arechanging, not only as the result of climate change, but also due tohuman activities. For example, hazards associated with floods, landslides,storm surges, and fires can be influenced by declines in ecosystemservices that regulate runoff, erosion, etc. The drainage of wetlands,deforestation, the destruction of mangroves, and the changes associatedwith urban development (such as the impermeability of surfaces andoverexploitation of groundwater) are all factors that can modifyhazard patterns (Nobre et al., 1991, 2005; MEA, 2005; Nicholls etal., 2008). Consequently, most weather-related hazards now have ananthropogenic element (Cardona, 1999; Lavell, 1999).Vulnerability has many different (and often conflicting) definitions andinterpretations, both across and within the disaster risk and climatecommunities (see Sections 1.1.2 and 2.2). Vulnerability can increase ordecrease over time as a result of both environmental and socioeconomicchanges (Blaikie et al., 1994; Leichenko and O’Brien, 2008). In general,improvements in a country’s development indicators have been associatedwith reduced mortality risk, yet an increase in economic loss and insuranceclaims (UNDP, 2004; Pielke Jr. et al., 2008; Schumacher and Strobl, 2008;ECA, 2009; UNISDR, 2009; World Bank, 2010a). Indeed, recent evidenceconfirms that, despite increasing exposure, mortality risk from tropicalcyclones and floods is now decreasing globally, as well as in heavilyexposed regions like Asia (UNISDR, 2011). In contrast, the risk ofeconomic loss is increasing globally because reductions in vulnerabilityare not compensating for rapid increases in the exposure of economicassets. In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) countries, for example, economic losses are increasing at a fasterrate than GDP per capita. In other words, the risk of losing wealth indisasters is increasing faster than that wealth is being created (UNISDR,2011). However, some types of development may increase vulnerabilityor transfer it between social groups, particularly if development isunequal or degrades ecosystem services (Guojie, 2003). Even wheregrowth is more equitable, vulnerabilities can be generated (e.g., whenmodern buildings are not constructed to prescribed safety standards)(Hewitt, 1997; Satterthwaite, 2007).Climate change can magnify many preexisting risks through changes inthe frequency, severity, and spatial distribution of weather-relatedhazards, as well as through increases in vulnerability due to climateimpacts (e.g., decreased water availability, decreased agriculturalproduction and food availability, or increased heat stress) (see Section4.3). Like adaptation, disaster risk reduction may be anticipatory(ensuring that new development does not increase risk) or corrective(reducing existing risk levels) (Lavell, 2009). Given expected populationincreases in hazard-prone areas, anticipatory disaster risk reduction isfundamental to addressing the risk associated with future climateextremes. At the same time, investments in corrective disaster riskreduction are required to address the accumulation of exposure andsusceptibility to existing climate risks, for example, those inherited frompast urban planning or rural infrastructure decisions.Climate change adaptation and disaster risk management (especiallydisaster risk reduction) are critical elements of long-term sustainabilityfor economies, societies, and environments at all scales (Wilbanks andKates, 2010). The generally accepted and most widespread definition ofsustainable development comes from the Brundtland CommissionReport, which defined sustainable development as “development thatmeets the needs of the present without compromising the ability offuture generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1987). A numberof principles of sustainable development have emerged, including theachievement of a standard of human well-being that meets humanneeds and provides opportunities for social and economic development;that sustains the life support systems of the planet; that broadensparticipation in development processes and decisions; and that acceleratesthe movement of knowledge into action in order to provide a widerrange of options for resolving issues (WCED, 1987; Meadowcroft, 1997;NRC, 1999; Swart et al., 2003; MEA, 2005). Because sustainabledevelopment means finding pathways that achieve socioeconomic andenvironmental goals without sacrificing either, it is a concept that isfundamentally political (Wilbanks, 1994).Discussions of the relationships between sustainable development andclimate change have increased over the past decades (Cohen et al., 1998;Yohe et al., 2007; Bizikova et al., 2010). The literature on developmenthas considered how development paths relate to vulnerabilities both toclimate change and to climate change policies (e.g., Davis, 2001; Garget al., 2009), as well as to other hazards. Clearly, some climate changerelatedenvironmental shifts are potentially threatening to sustainabledevelopment, but they can also help move toward sustainability,especially if the trends or events are severe enough to require significantadjustment of unsustainable development practices or developmentpaths (e.g., the relocation of population or economic activities to lessvulnerable areas). In such cases, both disaster risk reduction and climatechange adaptation can be important – even essential – contributors tosustainable development.There are some examples of successful decreases in vulnerabilitythrough disaster risk management, but less evidence in relation to climatechange adaptation, in part because the ability to attribute observed444