IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Toward a Sustainable and Resilient FutureChapter 8RiskManagement-DevelopmentSynergy andCapacityTransformativeChangesUnacceptable RiskManagement BurdenPoint at which the costsof risk management areperceived as too high,such that measures areno longer taken to keepup with changing riskand uncertaintyUnacceptable RiskAdjustingPathwayResilienceencTrajectoryIncrementalAdjustmentsPoint at which a lack of resilience becomesunacceptable, provoking a shift from incrementalto transformative risk management approachesAdaptive LearningManagementInnovation LeadershipRisk and UncertaintyFigure 8-1 | Incremental and transformative pathways to resilience.embraces transformation – as illustrated in Figure 8-1, which depictsresilience as a moving target that is positioned somewhere between theacceptability of residual risk and the costs of risk management. The targetmoves as the relationship between risk and uncertainty changes (drivenby climate extremes, as well as development trends such as urbanization)in relation to the capacity for risk management (which integrates climatechange adaptation, disaster risk management, and development). Asrisk and uncertainty increase, incremental adjustments in practices mayno longer be sufficient to achieve resilience, and at some point thegrowing resilience gap will provoke a search for transformative solutions.Through enhanced experimentation and learning approaches, climatechange adaptation, disaster risk management, and development mayprovide a pathway for keeping pace with the dynamic drivers andexpressions of risk.After this introduction, this chapter discusses the relationship betweendisaster risk management, climate change adaptation, and sustainableand resilient development (Section 8.2), highlighting the synergies andconflicts between these objectives and the common obstacles to reachingthem (Section 8.2.1) and the specific role of ecosystems and biodiversity(Section 8.2.2). In particular, it emphasizes the importance of values andperceptions (Section 8.2.3) and the role of technologies (Section 8.2.4) indesigning sustainability policies. Finally, it highlights the importance oftradeoffs between temporal scales, spatial scales, and multiple stressors(Section 8.2.5).Focusing on time perspectives, Section 8.3 then discusses options tointegrate short- and long-term objectives, by looking at the long-termconsequences of present-day responses to disasters (Section 8.3.1),investigating the barriers to integrating short- and long-term responses(Section 8.3.2), and proposing options to overcome these barriers andpromote resilience (Section 8.3.3).Section 8.4 assesses the implications of disaster risk reduction andclimate change adaptation for equity and access to resources, and inparticular the importance of capacities and resource availability toimplement policies for adaptation and disaster risk reduction (Section8.4.1). It also highlights the existence of losers and winners fromdisasters and disaster risk reduction and adaptation policies (Section8.4.2), and the consequences of these distributive effects for humansecurity (Section 8.4.3) and for the possibility to achieve internationalgoals such as the Millennium Development Goals (Section 8.4.4).Section 8.5 focuses on the specific issue of combining disaster riskmanagement and adaptation with climate change mitigation policies. Itstarts by stressing the role of thresholds and tipping points as limitsto what can be achieved in terms of disaster risk management andadaptation, and thus the importance of considering the three policiestogether (Section 8.5.1). It then discusses synergies and conflictsbetween mitigation, adaptation, and disaster risk management in urbanand rural areas (Section 8.5.2).Section 8.6 identifies the tools and options to promote resilience toclimate extremes and combine adaptation, disaster risk management,and other policy goals. It first discusses various approaches to planningfor the future, including the use of scenarios (Section 8.6.1). It thenhighlights the existence of a continuum of options to make progressover the short and long term, from incremental to transformational442