IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 1Climate Change: New Dimensions in Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and ResilienceThe importance of vulnerability to the disaster risk managementcommunity may be appreciated in the way it has helped to highlight therole of social factors in the constitution of risk, moving away from purelyphysical explanations and attributions of loss and damage (see Hewitt,1983 for an early critique of what he denominated the ‘physicalist’interpretation of disaster). Differential levels of vulnerability will leadto differential levels of damage and loss under similar conditions ofexposure to physical events of a given magnitude (Dow, 1992; Wisneret al., 2011).The fundamentally social connotation and ‘predictive’ value ofvulnerability is emphasized in the definition used here. The earlierIPCC definition of vulnerability refers, however, to “the degree to whicha system is susceptible to and unable to cope with adverse effects ofclimate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerabilityis a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change andvariation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptivecapacity” (IPCC, 2007c, p. 883). This definition makes physical causes andtheir effects an explicit aspect of vulnerability while the social contextis encompassed by the notions of sensitivity and adaptive capacity(these notions are defined later). In the definition used in this report, thesocial context is emphasized explicitly, and vulnerability is consideredindependent of physical events (Hewitt, 1983, 1997, 2007;Weichselgartner, 2001; Cannon, 2006; O’Brien et al., 2007).Vulnerability has been contrasted and complimented with the notion ofcapacity.Capacity refers to the combination of all the strengths, attributes, andresources available to an individual, community, society, or organizationthat can be used to achieve established goals. This includes the conditionsand characteristics that permit society at large (institutions, local groups,individuals, etc.) access to and use of social, economic, psychological,cultural, and livelihood-related natural resources, as well as access tothe information and the institutions of governance necessary to reducevulnerability and deal with the consequences of disaster. This definitionextends the definition of capabilities referred to in Sen’s ‘capabilitiesapproach to development’ (Sen, 1983).The lack of capacity may be seen as being one dimension of overallvulnerability, while it is also seen as a separate notion that, althoughcontributing to an increase in vulnerability, is not part of vulnerabilityper se. The existence of vulnerability does not mean an absolute, butrather a relative lack of capacity.Promoted in disaster recovery work by Anderson and Woodrow (1989)as a means, among other objectives, to shift the analytical balance fromthe negative aspects of vulnerability to the positive actions by people,the notion of capacity is fundamental to imagining and designing aconceptual shift favoring disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climatechange. Effective capacity building, the notion of stimulating andproviding for growth in capacity, requires a clear image of the futurewith clearly established goals.Adaptive capacity comprises a specific usage of the notion of capacityand is dealt with in detail in later sections of this chapter and Chapters2 and 8 in particular.The existence of vulnerability and capacity and their importance forunderstanding the nature and extent of the adverse effects that mayoccur with the impact of physical events can be complemented with aconsideration of the characteristics or conditions that help ameliorate ormitigate negative impacts once disaster materializes. The notions ofresilience and coping are fundamental in this sense.Coping (elaborated upon in detail in Section 1.4 and Chapter 2) isdefined here generically as the use of available skills, resources, andopportunities to address, manage, and overcome adverse conditionsFAQ 1.1 | Is there a one-to-one relationship between extreme events and disasters?No. Disaster entails social, economic, or environmental impacts that severely disrupt the normal functioning of affected communities.Extreme weather and climate events will lead to disaster if: 1) communities are exposed to those events; and 2) exposure to potentiallydamaging extreme events is accompanied by a high level of vulnerability (a predisposition for loss and damage). On the other hand,disasters are also triggered by events that are not extreme in a statistical sense. High exposure and vulnerability levels will transformeven some small-scale events into disasters for some affected communities. Recurrent small- or medium-scale events affecting the samecommunities may lead to serious erosion of its development base and livelihood options, thus increasing vulnerability. The timing (whenthey occur during the day, month, or year) and sequence (similar events in succession or different events contemporaneously) of suchevents is often critical to their human impact. The relative importance of the underlying physical and social determinants of disaster riskvaries with the scale of the event and the levels of exposure and vulnerability. Because the impact of lesser events is exacerbated byphysical, ecological, and social conditions that increase exposure and vulnerability, these events disproportionately affect resource-poorcommunities with little access to alternatives for reducing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The potential negative consequences ofextreme events can be moderated in important ways (but rarely eliminated completely) by implementing corrective disaster riskmanagement strategies that are reactive, adaptive, and anticipatory, and by sustainable development.33