IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 1Climate Change: New Dimensions in Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Resilience1.1. Introduction1.1.1. Purpose and Scope of the Special ReportClimate change, an alteration in the state of the climate that can beidentified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties,and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer, isa fundamental reference point for framing the different managementthemes and challenges dealt with in this Special Report.Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or externalforcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition ofthe atmosphere or in land use (see Chapter 3 for greater detail).Anthropogenic climate change is projected to continue during thiscentury and beyond. This conclusion is robust under a wide range ofscenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions, including some thatanticipate a reduction in emissions (IPCC, 2007a).While specific, local outcomes of climate change are uncertain, recentassessments project alteration in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent,or duration of weather and climate extremes, including climate andhydrometeorological events such as heat waves, heavy precipitationevents, drought, and tropical cyclones (see Chapter 3). Such change, ina context of increasing vulnerability, will lead to increased stress onhuman and natural systems and a propensity for serious adverse effectsin many places around the world (UNISDR, 2009e, 2011). At the sametime, climate change is also expected to bring benefits to certain placesand communities at particular times.New, improved or strengthened processes for anticipating and dealingwith the adverse effects associated with weather and climate eventswill be needed in many areas. This conclusion is supported by the factthat despite increasing knowledge and understanding of the factorsthat lead to adverse effects, and despite important advances overrecent decades in the reduction of loss of life with the occurrence ofhydrometeorological events (mainly attributable to important advanceswith early warning systems, e.g., Section 9.2.11), social intervention inthe face of historical climate variability has not kept pace with the rapidincreases in other adverse economic and social effects suffered duringthis period (ICSU, 2008) (high confidence). Instead, a rapid growth inreal economic losses and livelihood disruption has occurred in manyparts of the world (UNISDR, 2009e, 2011). In regard to losses associatedwith tropical cyclones, recent analysis has shown that, with the exceptionof the East Asian and Pacific and South Asian regions, “both exposureand the estimated risk of economic loss are growing faster than GDPper capita. Thus the risk of losing wealth in disasters associated withtropical cyclones is increasing faster than wealth itself is increasing”(UNISDR, 2011, p. 33).The Hyogo Framework for Action (UNISDR, 2005), adopted by 168governments, provides a point of reference for disaster risk managementand its practical implementation (see Glossary and Section 1.1.2.2 for adefinition of this practice). Subsequent United Nations statementssuggest the need for closer integration of disaster risk management andadaptation with climate change concerns and goals, all in the context ofdevelopment and development planning (UNISDR, 2008a, 2009a,b,c).Such a concern led to the agreement between the IPCC and the UnitedNations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), withthe support of the Norwegian government, to undertake this SpecialReport on “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters toAdvance Climate Change Adaptation” (IPCC, 2009).This Special Report responds to that concern by considering climatechange and its effects on extreme (weather and climate) events, disaster,and disaster risk management; how human responses to extremeevents and disasters (based on historical experience and evolution inpractice) could contribute to adaptation objectives and processes; andhow adaptation to climate change could be more closely integratedwith disaster risk management practice.The report draws on current scientific knowledge to address threespecific goals:1) To assess the relevance and utility of the concepts, methods,strategies, instruments, and experience gained from the managementof climate-associated disaster risk under conditions of historicalclimate patterns, in order to advance adaptation to climate changeand the management of extreme events and disasters in thefuture.2) To assess the new perspectives and challenges that climate changebrings to the disaster risk management field.3) To assess the mutual implications of the evolution of the disasterrisk management and adaptation to climate change fields,particularly with respect to the desired increases in social resilienceand sustainability that adaptation implies.The principal audience for this Special Report comprises decisionmakersand professional and technical personnel from local through to nationalgovernments, international development agencies, nongovernmentalorganizations, and civil society organizations. The report also has relevancefor the academic community and interested laypeople.The first section of this chapter briefly introduces the more importantconcepts, definitions, contexts, and management concerns needed toframe the content of this report. Later sections of the chapter expand onthe subjects of extreme events and extreme impacts; disaster riskmanagement, reduction, and transfer and their integration withclimate change and adaptation processes; and the notions of coping andadaptation. The level of detail and discussion presented in this chapteris commensurate with its status as a ‘scene setting’ initiative. Thefollowing eight chapters provide more detailed and specific analysis.Chapter 2 assesses the key determinants of risk, namely exposure andvulnerability in the context of climate-related hazards. A particular focus isthe connection between near-term experience and long-term adaptation.Key questions addressed include whether reducing vulnerability tocurrent hazards improves adaptation to longer-term climate change,29