IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 6National Systems for Managing the Risks from Climate Extremes and Disasters6.5.1.1. Assessing Risks and Maintaining Information SystemsAs discussed widely in Chapter 1, the first key step in managing risk isto assess and characterize it. In terms of risk factors, disaster risk iscommonly defined by three elements: the hazard, exposure of elements,and vulnerability (Swiss Re, 2000; Kuzak, 2004; Grossi and Kunreuther,2005; CACCA, 2010). Thus, understanding risk involves observing andrecording hazards and hazard analysis, studying exposure and drivers ofvulnerability, and vulnerability assessment. Responding to risks isdependent on the way risk-based information is framed in the contextof public perception and risk management needs.Given the ‘public good’ nature of much of disaster-related information(Benson and Clay, 2004), governments have a fundamental role inproviding good-quality and context-specific risk information about, forexample, the geographical distribution of people, assets, hazards, risks, anddisaster impacts and vulnerability to support disaster risk management(McBean, 2008). Good baseline information and robust time seriesinformation are key for long-term risk monitoring and assessments, notonly for hazards, but also for evaluating the evolution of vulnerability andexposure (McEntire and Myers, 2004; Aldunce and León, 2007). Regularupdating of information about hazards, exposure, and vulnerability arealso necessary because of the dynamic nature of disaster risk, especiallydue to the effects of climate change and the associated uncertainty thiscreates (UNISDR, 2004; Prabhakar et al., 2009; CACCA, 2010).A key component in the risk assessment process is to determine exposedelements at risk. This may relate to persons, buildings, infrastructure(e.g., water and sewer facilities, roads, and bridges), agricultural assets,livelihoods, ecosystems, natural infrastructure, and ecosystem servicesin harm’s way that can be impacted in case of a disaster event. Fornational level assessments, their aggregate values are of interest.Ideally, this would be based on national asset inventories, nationalpopulation census, and other national information. In practice, collectingan inventory on assets and their values often proves very difficult andexpensive due to the heterogeneity and sheer number of the examinedelements (see Cummins and Mahul, 2009). In addition, risk managementprocesses require identifying those elements of the social process thatalso contribute to vulnerability – such as organizational and economiccapacities, human development status of communities at risk, andcapacity to respond to disasters (Lavell, 1996; Cardona et al., 2010) – aswell as assessing the impacts following disaster events (ECLAC, 2003;Benson and Clay, 2004). Considerable progress has been made in thegeneration and use of such information including in some developingcountries (Benson and Clay, 2004; UNISDR 2009c). Nevertheless, inmany countries this is not a regular practice and efforts to documentTable 6-3 | Information requirements for selected disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change activities. Adapted from Wilby (2009).ActivitiesExamples of information needsCross -cutting Climate change modeling Time series information on climate variables – air and sea surface temperatures, rainfall and precipitation measures, wind, aircirculation patterns, and greenhouse gas levelsFlood riskmanagementDroughtmanagementHazard zoning and ‘hot spot’ mappingHuman development indicatorsDisbursement of relief paymentsSeasonal outlooks for preparednessplanningA system of risk indicators reflectingmacro and financial health of nation,social and environmental risks, humanvulnerability conditions, and strengthof governance (Cardona et al., 2010)Early warning systems for fluvial,glacial, and tidal hazardsFlooding hot spots, and structural andnon-structural flood controlsArtificial draining of proglacial lakesTraditional rain and groundwaterharvesting, and storage systemsLong-range reservoir inflow forecastsWater demand management andefficiency measuresGeoreferenced inventories of landslide, flood, drought, and cyclone occurrence and impacts at local, sub-national andnational levelsGeospatial distribution of poverty, livelihood sources, access to water and sanitationHousehold surveys of resource access, social well-being, and income levelsSeasonal climate forecasts; sea surface temperatures; remotely sensed and in situ measurements of snow cover/depth, soilmoisture, and vegetation growth; rainfall-runoff; crop yields; epidemiologyMacroeconomic and financial indicators (Disaster Deficit Index)Measures of social and environmental risksMeasures of vulnerability conditions reflected by exposure in disaster-prone areas, socioeconomic fragility, and lack of socialresilience in generalMeasures of organizational, development, and institutional strengthsReal-time meteorology and water-level telemetry; rainfall, stream flow, and storm surge; remotely sensed snow, ice, and lakeareas; rainfall-runoff model and time series; probabilistic information on extreme wind velocities and storm surgesRainfall data, rainfall-runoff, stream flow, floods, and flood inundation mapsInventories of pumps, stream gauges, drainage and defense works; land use maps for hazard zoning; post-disaster plan;climate change allowances for structures; floodplain elevationsSatellite surveys of lake areas and glacier velocities; inventories of lake properties and infrastructure at risk; local hydrometeorologyInventories of system properties including condition, reliable yield, economics, ownership; soil and geological maps of areassuitable for enhanced groundwater recharge; water quality monitoring; evidence of deep-well impactsSeasonal climate forecast model; sea surface temperatures; remotely sensed snow cover; in situ snow depths; multi-decadalrainfall-runoff seriesIntegrated climate and river basin water monitoring; data on existing systems’ water use efficiency; data on current and futuredemand metering and survey effectiveness of demand management363