IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 5Managing the Risks from Climate Extremes at the Local Level2006). The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami attests to the utility of mangroves,coral reefs, and sand dunes in alleviating the influx of large waves to theshore (Das and Vincent, 2009). The use of dune management districts toprotect property along developed shorelines has achieved success inmany places along the US eastern shore and elsewhere (Nordstrom,2000, 2008). Carbon sequestration is another benefit of ecosystembasedadaptation based on sustainable watershed and community forestmanagement (McCall, 2010). While the extent of their protectiveecosystem functions is still debated (Gedan et al., 2011), the merits ofecosystem services in general are proven, and development of quantifiedmodels of the services is well under way (Barbier et al., 2008; Nelson etal., 2009). These nonstructural measures are considered to be lessintrusive and more sustainable, and when integrated with engineeringresponses provide mechanisms for adapting to disasters and climateextremes (Galloway, 2007; Opperman et al., 2009; Cheong, 2011a).5.3.4. Storage and Rationing of ResourcesCommunities may take a range of approaches to cope with disasterinducedshortages of resources, including producing surpluses andstoring them. If the surpluses are not available, rationing of food mayoccur. Many localities produce food surpluses that enable them tomanage during periods of seasonal or disaster-initiated disruptions totheir food supplies, although such practices were more prevalent in precapitalistsocieties. In Pacific Island communities, for example, foodcrops such as taro and breadfruit were often stored for periods up toand exceeding a year by fermentation in leaf-lined pits. Yams could bestored for several years in dry locations, and most communities maintainedfamine foods such as wild yams, swamp taro, and sago, which were onlyharvested during times of food shortage (Campbell, 2006). The provisionof disaster relief, among other factors, has seen these practices decline(Campbell, 2010a). In Mali, women store part of their harvest as a hedgeagainst drought (Intercooperation, 2008). Stockpiling and prepositioningof emergency response equipment, materials, foods, and pharmaceuticalsand medical equipment is also an important form of disaster preparednessat the local level, especially for many indigenous communities.Rationing may be seen as the initial response to food shortages at ornear the onset of a food crisis. However, in many cases rationing isneeded on a seasonal basis. Rationing at the local level is often selfrationinginstituted at the level of households – particularly poor oneswithout the ability to accumulate wealth or surpluses. Often, rationinginitially occurs among women and children (Hyder et al., 2005;Ramachandran, 2006). Most rationing takes place in response tofood shortages and is, for most poor communities, the first responseto the disruption of livelihoods (Walker, 1989; Barrett, 2002; Devereuxand Sabates-Wheeler, 2004; Baro and Deubel, 2006). In many casesincreases in food prices force those with insufficient incomes to rationas well.When the food shortage becomes too severe, households may reducefuture security by eating seeds or selling livestock, followed by severeillness, migration, starvation, and death if the shortages persist. Whileclimate change may alter the frequency and severity of droughts (seeSection 3.5.1), the causes of food crises are multi-faceted and oftenlie in social, economic, and political processes in addition to climaticvariability (Sen, 1981; Corbett, 1988; Bohle et al., 1994; Wisner et al., 2004).Food rationing is unusual in developed countries where most communitiesare not based on subsistence production. Welfare systems and NGOagencies respond to needs of those with livelihood deficits in thesecountries. However, other forms of rationing do exist particularly inresponse to drought events. Reductions in water use are achievedthrough a number of measures including: metering, rationing (fixedamounts, proportional reductions, or voluntary reductions), pressurereduction, leakage reduction, conservation devices, education, plumbingcodes, market mechanisms (e.g., transferable quotas, tariffs, pricing),and water use restrictions (Lund and Reed, 1995; Froukh, 2001).Electricity supplies may also be disrupted by disaster events resulting inpartial or total blackouts. While a number of countries have nationalelectrical grids, decisions on responses to shortages are often made atlocal levels causing considerable disruption to other services, domesticcustomers, and to businesses. Rose et al. (2007) show that manyAmerican businesses can be quite resilient in such circumstances,adapting a variety of strategies including conserving energy, usingalternative forms of energy, using alternative forms of generation,rescheduling activities to a future date, or focusing on the low- or noenergyelements of the business operation. Rose and Liao (2005) hadsimilar findings for water supply disruption. Electricity storage (inadvance) and rationing may also be required when low precipitationreduces hydroelectricity production, a possible scenario in some placesunder climate projections (Vörösmarty et al., 2000; Boyd and Ibarrarán,2009). In some cases there may be competition among a range of sectorsincluding industry, agriculture, electricity production, and domesticwater supply (Vörösmarty et al., 2000) that may have to be addressedthrough rationing and other measures such as those listed above.Clear rules outlining which consumers have priority in using water orelectricity is important.Other elements that may be rationed as a result of natural hazards ordisasters include prioritization of medical and health services wheredisasters may simultaneously cause a large spike in numbers requiringmedical assistance and a reduction in medical facilities, equipment,pharmaceuticals, and personnel. This may require classifying patientsand giving precedence to those with the greatest need and the highestlikelihood of a positive outcome. This approach seeks to achieve thebest results for the largest number of people (Alexander, 2002; Isersonand Moskop, 2007).Responding to future disaster risk will entail multiple approaches at thelocal level. Starting with risk communication and warning information,the following dominate the range of adjustments local areas presentlyundertake in responding to future risks: structural measures, land useplanning, ecosystem protection, and storage and rationing of resources.307