IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Summary for PolicymakersTable SPM.1 (continued)Example Exposure and vulnerabilityat scale of risk managementin the exampleGLOBALObserved (since 1950) and projected(to 2100) global changesInformation on Climate Extreme Across Spatial ScalesREGIONALObserved (since 1950) and projected(to 2100) changes in the exampleSCALE OF RISK MANAGEMENTAvailable information for theexampleImpacts of heatwaves in urbanareas in EuropeFactors affecting exposure andvulnerability include age, pre-existinghealth status, level of outdooractivity, socioeconomic factorsincluding poverty and social isolation,access to and use of cooling,physiological and behavioraladaptation of the population, andurban infrastructure.[2.5.2, 4.3.5, 4.3.6, 4.4.5, 9.2.1]Observed: Medium confidence that the lengthor number of warm spells or heat waves hasincreased since the middle of the 20th century, inmany (but not all) regions over the globe.Very likely increase in number of warm days andnights at the global scale.Projected: Very likely increase in length,frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells orheat waves over most land areas.Virtually certain increase in frequency andmagnitude of warm days and nights at the globalscale.Observed: Medium confidence inincrease in heat waves or warm spells inEurope.Likely overall increase in warm days andnights over most of the continent.Projected: Likely more frequent, longer,and/or more intense heat waves orwarm spells in Europe.Very likely increase in warm days andnights.[Table 3-2, Table 3-3, 3.3.1]Observations and projections canprovide information for specific urbanareas in the region, with increased heatwaves expected due to regional trendsand urban heat island effects.[3.3.1, 4.4.5][Table 3-1, 3.3.1]Increasing lossesfrom hurricanes inthe USA and theCaribbeanExposure and vulnerability areincreasing due to growth inpopulation and increase in propertyvalues, particularly along the Gulf andAtlantic coasts of the United States.Some of this increase has been offsetby improved building codes.[4.4.6]Observed: Low confidence in any observedlong-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases intropical cyclone activity, after accounting for pastchanges in observing capabilities.Projected: Likely that the global frequency oftropical cyclones will either decrease or remainessentially unchanged.Likely increase in average tropical cyclonemaximum wind speed, although increases maynot occur in all ocean basins.Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclonesare likely to increase.Projected sea level rise is expected to furthercompound tropical cyclone surge impacts.See global changes column for globalprojections.Limited model capability to projectchanges relevant to specific settlementsor other locations, due to the inability ofglobal models to accurately simulatefactors relevant to tropical cyclonegenesis, track, and intensity evolution.[3.4.4][Table 3-1, 3.4.4]Droughts in thecontext of foodsecurity in WestAfricaLess advanced agricultural practicesrender region vulnerable to increasingvariability in seasonal rainfall,drought, and weather extremes.Vulnerability is exacerbated bypopulation growth, degradation ofecosystems, and overuse of naturalresources, as well as poor standardsfor health, education, andgovernance.[2.2.2, 2.3, 2.5, 4.4.2, 9.2.3]Observed: Medium confidence that someregions of the world have experienced moreintense and longer droughts, but in some regionsdroughts have become less frequent, less intense,or shorter.Projected: Medium confidence in projectedintensification of drought in some seasons andareas. Elsewhere there is overall low confidencebecause of inconsistent projections.[Table 3-1, 3.5.1]Observed: Medium confidence in anincrease in dryness. Recent yearscharacterized by greater interannualvariability than previous 40 years, withthe western Sahel remaining dry and theeastern Sahel returning to wetterconditions.Projected: Low confidence dueto inconsistent signal in modelprojections.[Table 3-2, Table 3-3, 3.5.1]Sub-seasonal, seasonal, and interannualforecasts with increasing uncertaintyover longer time scales.Improved monitoring, instrumentation,and data associated with early warningsystems, but with limited participationand dissemination to at-risk populations.[5.3.1, 5.5.3, 7.3.1, 9.2.3, 9.2.11]Options for risk management andadaptation in the exampleLow-regrets options that reduce exposure andvulnerability across a range of hazard trends:• Early warning systems that reach particularlyvulnerable groups (e.g., the elderly)• Vulnerability mapping and corresponding measures• Public information on what to do during heat waves,including behavioral advice• Use of social care networks to reach vulnerablegroupsSpecific adjustments in strategies, policies, and measuresinformed by trends in heat waves include awarenessraising of heat waves as a public health concern; changesin urban infrastructure and land use planning, forexample, increasing urban green space; changes inapproaches to cooling for public facilities; andadjustments in energy generation and transmissioninfrastructure.[Table 6-1, 9.2.1]Low-regrets options that reduce exposure andvulnerability across a range of hazard trends:• Adoption and enforcement of improved buildingcodes• Improved forecasting capacity and implementation ofimproved early warning systems (includingevacuation plans and infrastructures)• Regional risk poolingIn the context of high underlying variability anduncertainty regarding trends, options can includeemphasizing adaptive management involving learningand flexibility (e.g., Cayman Islands National HurricaneCommittee).[5.5.3, 6.5.2, 6.6.2, Box 6-7, Table 6-1, 7.4.4, 9.2.5,9.2.11, 9.2.13]Low-regrets options that reduce exposure andvulnerability across a range of hazard trends:• Traditional rain and groundwater harvesting andstorage systems• Water demand management and improved irrigationefficiency measures• Conservation agriculture, crop rotation, and livelihooddiversification• Increasing use of drought-resistant crop varieties• Early warning systems integrating seasonal forecastswith drought projections, with improvedcommunication involving extension services• Risk pooling at the regional or national level[2.5.4, 5.3.1, 5.3.3, 6.5, Table 6-3, 9.2.3, 9.2.11]19