IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

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Changes in Impacts of Climate Extremes: Human Systems and EcosystemsChapter 4events in two regions of England, combining fluvial and coastal flooding.The two main conclusions from their work were as follows. First, thepercentage change in cost was greater for the rarer event than the morefrequent event. Second, the absolute value of impacts, and therefore thepercentage change from current impacts, was found to be highlydependent on the assumed socioeconomic change. In one region, eventdamage varied, in monetary terms, between four and five times acrosssocioeconomic scenarios. An even wider range in estimated averageannual damage was found in the UK Foresight Future Flooding andCoastal Defence project (Evans et al., 2004; Hall et al., 2005), whichcalculated average annual damage in 2080 of £1.5 billion, £5 billion, and£21 billion under similar climate scenarios but different socioeconomicfutures (current average annual damage was estimated at £1 billion).The Foresight project represented the effect of climate change on floodfrequency by altering the shape of the flood frequency curve usingprecipitation outputs from climate models and rainfall-runoff models fora sample of UK catchments. The EU-funded Projection of Economicimpacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based onboTtom-up Analysis (PESETA) project (Ciscar, 2009; Feyen et al., 2009)used a hydrological model to simulate river flows, flooded areas, and floodfrequency curves from climate scenarios derived from regional climatemodels, but – in contrast to the UK Foresight project – assumed nochange in economic development in flood-prone areas. Figure 4-4summarizes estimated changes in the average annual number of peopleflooded and average annual damage, by European region (Ciscar, 2009).There are strong regional variations in impact, with particularly largeprojected increases in both number of people flooded and economicdamage (over 200%) in central and Eastern Europe, while in parts ofNorth Eastern Europe, average annual flood damages decrease.At the global scale, two studies have estimated the numbers of peopleaffected by increases (or decreases) in flood hazard. Kleinen and Petschel-Held (2007) calculated the percentage of population living in river basinswhere the return period of the current 50-year event becomes shorter,for three climate models and a range of increases in global meantemperature. With an increase in global mean temperature of 2°C (abovelate 20th-century temperatures), between (approximately) 5 and 27%of the world’s population would live in river basins where the current50-year return period flood occurs at least twice as frequently. Hirabayashiand Kanae (2009) used a different metric, counting each year the numberof people living in grid cells where the flood peak exceeded the (current)100-year magnitude, using runoff as simulated by a high-resolutionclimate model fed through a river routing model. Beyond 2060, theyfound that at least 300 million people could be affected by substantialflooding even in years with relatively low flooding, with of the order oftwice as many being flooded in flood-rich years (note that they usedonly one climate scenario with one climate model). This compares witha current range (using the same index) of between 20 and 300 millionpeople. The largest part of the projected increase is due to increases inthe occurrence of floods, rather than increases in population.The impacts of changes in flood characteristics are highly dependent onhow climate changes in the future, and as noted in Section 3.5.2, thereis low confidence in projections of changes in flood magnitude orfrequency. However, based on the available literature, there is highconfidence that, in some places, climate change has the potential tosubstantially affect flood losses.4.3.3. EcosystemsAvailable information shows that high temperature extremes (i.e., heatwave), drought, and floods substantially affect ecosystems. Increasinggaps and overall contraction of the distribution range for specieshabitat could result from increases in the frequency of large-scaledisturbances due to extreme weather and climate events (Opdam andWascher, 2004). Fischlin et al. (2007), from assessment of 19 studies,found that 20 to 30% of studied plant and animal species may be at anincreased risk of extinction if warming exceeds 2 to 3°C above thepreindustrial level. Changes due to climate extremes could also entailshifts of ecosystems to less-desired states (Scheffer et al., 2001; Chapinet al., 2004; Folke et al., 2004) through, for example, the exceedance ofcritical temperature thresholds, with potential loss of ecosystem servicesdependent on the previous state (Reid et al., 2005; see also Fischlin etal., 2007).4.3.3.1. Heat WavesHeat waves can directly impact ecosystems by, for example, constrainingcarbon and nitrogen cycling and reducing water availability, with theresult of potentially decreasing production or even causing speciesmortality.Warming can decrease net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchangeby inducing drought that suppresses net primary productivity. Morefrequent warm years may lead to a sustained decrease in CO 2 uptake byterrestrial ecosystems (Arnone et al., 2008). Extreme temperatureconditions can shift forest ecosystems from being a net carbon sink tobeing a net carbon source. For example, tall-grass prairie net ecosystemCO 2 exchange levels decreased in both an extreme warming year(2003) and the following year in grassland monoliths from centralOklahoma, United States (Arnone et al., 2008). A 30% reduction in grossprimary productivity together with decreased ecosystem respirationover Europe during the heat wave in 2003 resulted in a strong netsource of CO 2 (0.5 Pg C yr -1 ) to the atmosphere and reversed the effectof four years of net ecosystem carbon sequestration. Such a reductionin Europe’s primary productivity is unprecedented during the last century(Ciais et al., 2005).Impacts are determined not only by the magnitude of warming but alsoby organisms’ physiological sensitivity to that warming and by theirability to compensate behaviorally and physiologically. For example,warming may affect tropical forest lizards’ physiological performance insummer, as well as their ability to compete with warm-adapted, openhabitatcompetitors (Huey et al., 2009). Projected increases in maximum244
Chapter 4Changes in Impacts of Climate Extremes: Human Systems and EcosystemsNORTHEUROPENumber of people affectedper year (in thousands)BRITISH ISLESNORTHERNCENTRAL EUROPEModelHadAM3hPeriod2071—2100ModelECHAM4Period2071—21002.5°C (B2)SOUTHEUROPESOUTHERNCENTRAL EUROPE2001501005003.9°C (A2)BaselinePopulationaffectedduring1961-1990period4.1°C (B2)5.4°C (A2)BRITISH ISLESNORTHEUROPENORTHERNCENTRAL EUROPEExpected economic damagein million Euros per year (2006 prices)6 000ModelHadAM3hPeriod2071—21002.5°C (B2)3.9°C (A2)ModelECHAM4Period2071—21004.1°C (B2)5.4°C (A2)5 0004 0003 000BaselineEconomicdamageduring1961-1990periodSOUTHEUROPESOUTHERNCENTRAL EUROPE2 0001 0000Figure 4-4 | Impact of climate change by 2071–2100 on flood risk in Europe. Note that the numbers assume no change in population or development in flood-proneareas. As illustrated in the legend on the right of each panel, projections are given for two Special <strong>Report</strong> on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios (A2 and B2) and fortwo global climate models (HadAM3h and ECHAM4). Projected mean temperature increase in the European region for the period 2071–2100 compared with1961–1990 is indicated for each scenario and model combination. (top): For each region, baseline simulated population affected over 1961–1990 (thousands per year)and expected population affected (thousands per year) for 2071–2100 for each scenario and model combination. (bottom): For each region, baseline simulatedeconomic damage over 1961–1990 (million € per year, 2006 prices) and expected economic damage (million € per year, 2006 prices) for 2071–2100 for each scenarioand model combination. Data from Ciscar, 2009.245
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MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREMEEVENTS
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Managing the Risks of Extreme Event
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ContentsSection IForeword .........
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ForewordForewordThis Special Report
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Prefacein understanding and managin
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Summary for PolicymakersA.ContextTh
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Summary for PolicymakersFigure SPM.
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Summary for Policymakerssettlements
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Summary for PolicymakersC.Disaster
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Summary for Policymakers20103146957
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Summary for Policymakers50201053W.
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Summary for PolicymakersOscillation
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Summary for PolicymakersTable SPM.1
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Summary for Policymakersimportance
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Summary for Policymakers22
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1Climate Change:New Dimensions inDi
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Chapter 1Climate Change: New Dimens
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2Determinantsof Risk:Exposure and V
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Chapter 2Determinants of Risk: Expo
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3Changesin Climate Extremesand thei
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Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extreme
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137in annual extremes (20-year extr
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6National Systemsfor Managing the R
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Chapter 6National Systems for Manag
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7Managingthe Risks:International Le
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Chapter 7Managing the Risks: Intern
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8Towarda Sustainableand Resilient F
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Chapter 8Toward a Sustainable and R
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9 Case StudiesCoordinating Lead Aut
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Chapter 9Case StudiesExecutive Summ
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Chapter 9Case StudiesTable 9-1 | Ma
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Chapter 9Case Studiesbecause heat-r
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Chapter 9Case Studiesneed for other
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Chapter 9Case StudiesAustralian coa
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Chapter 9Case Studiesthat 1.3 milli
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Chapter 9Case Studiesof impact. Bas
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Chapter 9Case StudiesTropical cyclo
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Chapter 9Case Studies9.2.6.5. Outco
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Chapter 9Case Studieswith increased
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Chapter 9Case StudiesThe developmen
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Chapter 9Case StudiesSuch devastati
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Chapter 9Case Studiesbuildings have
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Chapter 9Case Studies• Wind defle
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Chapter 9Case Studiesdeveloped, som
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Chapter 9Case Studiesbeen establish
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Chapter 9Case StudiesTable 9-3 | Ex
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Chapter 9Case StudiesThe Philippine
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Chapter 9Case StudiesBeg, N., J.C.
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Chapter 9Case StudiesRepublic of So
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Chapter 9Case StudiesUNESC, 2000: A
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IV Annexes I to IV
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Authors and Expert ReviewersAnnex I
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIAbrupt cli
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIor anthrop
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIFrozen gro
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIand time s
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IImain track
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AcronymsAnnex IIIAAO Antarctic Osci
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AcronymsAnnex III568
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List of Major IPCC ReportsAnnex IVC
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List of Major IPCC ReportsAnnex IV5
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IndexIndex | KeyTerms defined in th
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IndexDemographic changes, 80, 234-2
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Indexregional impacts, 259vulnerabi
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IndexOcean acidification, 185, 261O
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Indextipping points, 122, 351, 458-
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