IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Summary for Policymakers2010314695710281511141213 191716202123182224Central 50%intermodel rangeFull model range521Scenarios:204665 208100B1 A1B A2MedianReturn period (Years)2231242320105212010521Alaska/N.W. Canada - 1204665 208100W. North America - 3204665 2081002010521C. North America - 4204665 208100Central America/Mexico - 62010521204665 20810020105212010521E. Canada/Greenl./Icel. - 22010521204665 208100E. North America - 5204665 208100Amazon - 7204665 208100W. Coast South America - 92010521204665 20810020105212010521S.E. South America - 10204665 208100N.E. Brazil - 8204665 2081002010521C. Europe - 12204665 208100S. Europe/Mediterranean - 132010521204665 20810020105212010521W. Africa - 15204665 20810020105212010521Sahara - 14204665 208100N. Europe - 11204665 2081002010S. Africa - 175212010521204665 208100W. Asia - 19204665 208100E. Africa - 16204665 20810020105212010521204665 2081002010521C. Asia - 20S. Asia - 23204665 208100N. Asia - 18204665 2081002010521Tibetan Plateau - 21204665 2081002010521204665 2081002010S.E. Asia - 24521N. Australia - 25204665 2081002010521E. Asia - 22204665 208100S. Australia/New Zealand - 262010521204665 208100LegendDecrease in return period implies more frequent extreme temperature events (see caption)2526Globe (Land only)2010521204665 208100Figure SPM.4A | Projected return periods for the maximum daily temperature that was exceeded on average once during a 20-year period in the late 20th century (1981–2000). A decrease in return period implies morefrequent extreme temperature events (i.e., less time between events on average). The box plots show results for regionally averaged projections for two time horizons, 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, as compared to the late20th century, and for three different SRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) (see legend). Results are based on 12 global climate models (GCMs) contributing to the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3). The level of agreement among the models is indicated by the size of the colored boxes (in which 50% of the model projections are contained), and the length of the whiskers (indicating the maximum and minimumprojections from all models). See legend for defined extent of regions. Values are computed for land points only. The ‘Globe’ inset box displays the values computed using all land grid points. [3.3.1, Figure 3-1, Figure 3-5]12
Summary for Policymakersthe crossing of poorly understood climate thresholds cannot be excluded, given the transient and complex nature ofthe climate system. Assigning ‘low confidence’ for projections of a specific extreme neither implies nor excludes thepossibility of changes in this extreme. The following assessments of the likelihood and/or confidence of projections aregenerally for the end of the 21st century and relative to the climate at the end of the 20th century. [3.1.5, 3.1.7, 3.2.3,Box 3-2]Models project substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. It is virtuallycertain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in coldextremes will occur in the 21st century at the global scale. It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or intensityof warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas. Based on the A1B and A2 emissions scenarios, a1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions, exceptin the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where it is likely to become a 1-in-5 year event (see Figure SPM.4A).Under the B1 scenario, a 1-in-20 year event would likely become a 1-in-5 year event (and a 1-in-10 year event inNorthern Hemisphere high latitudes). The 1-in-20 year extreme daily maximum temperature (i.e., a value that wasexceeded on average only once during the period 1981–2000) will likely increase by about 1°C to 3°C by the mid-21stcentury and by about 2°C to 5°C by the late 21st century, depending on the region and emissions scenario (based onthe B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios). [3.3.1, 3.1.6, Table 3-3, Figure 3-5]It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls willincrease in the 21st century over many areas of the globe. This is particularly the case in the high latitudes andtropical regions, and in winter in the northern mid-latitudes. Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likelyto increase with continued warming. There is medium confidence that, in some regions, increases in heavy precipitationwill occur despite projected decreases in total precipitation in those regions. Based on a range of emissions scenarios(B1, A1B, A2), a 1-in-20 year annual maximum daily precipitation amount is likely to become a 1-in-5 to 1-in-15 yearevent by the end of the 21st century in many regions, and in most regions the higher emissions scenarios (A1B and A2)lead to a stronger projected decrease in return period. See Figure SPM.4B. [3.3.2, 3.4.4, Table 3-3, Figure 3-7]Average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely to increase, although increases may not occur inall ocean basins. It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remainessentially unchanged. [3.4.4]There is medium confidence that there will be a reduction in the number of extratropical cyclones averagedover each hemisphere. While there is low confidence in the detailed geographical projections of extratropicalcyclone activity, there is medium confidence in a projected poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks. There is lowconfidence in projections of small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes and hail because competing physicalprocesses may affect future trends and because current climate models do not simulate such phenomena. [3.3.2, 3.3.3,3.4.5]There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, dueto reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration. This applies to regions including southern Europeand the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil,and southern Africa. Elsewhere there is overall low confidence because of inconsistent projections of drought changes(dependent both on model and dryness index). Definitional issues, lack of observational data, and the inability of modelsto include all the factors that influence droughts preclude stronger confidence than medium in drought projections.See Figure SPM.5. [3.5.1, Table 3-3, Box 3-3]Projected precipitation and temperature changes imply possible changes in floods, although overall thereis low confidence in projections of changes in fluvial floods. Confidence is low due to limited evidence andbecause the causes of regional changes are complex, although there are exceptions to this statement. There is mediumconfidence (based on physical reasoning) that projected increases in heavy rainfall would contribute to increases inlocal flooding in some catchments or regions. [3.5.2]13
Page 1: MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREMEEVENTS
Page 5 and 6: Managing the Risks of Extreme Event
Page 7: ContentsSection IForeword .........
Page 10 and 11: ForewordForewordThis Special Report
Page 12 and 13: Prefacein understanding and managin
Page 16 and 17: Summary for PolicymakersA.ContextTh
Page 18 and 19: Summary for PolicymakersFigure SPM.
Page 20 and 21: Summary for Policymakerssettlements
Page 22 and 23: Summary for PolicymakersC.Disaster
Page 26 and 27: Summary for Policymakers50201053W.
Page 28 and 29: Summary for PolicymakersOscillation
Page 30 and 31: Summary for PolicymakersTable SPM.1
Page 32 and 33: Summary for Policymakersimportance
Page 34 and 35: Summary for Policymakers22
Page 37 and 38: 1Climate Change:New Dimensions inDi
Page 39 and 40: Chapter 1Climate Change: New Dimens
Page 75 and 76:
Chapter 1Climate Change: New Dimens
Page 77 and 78:
2Determinantsof Risk:Exposure and V
Page 79 and 80:
Chapter 2Determinants of Risk: Expo
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
3Changesin Climate Extremesand thei
Page 123 and 124:
Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extreme
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
137in annual extremes (20-year extr
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
Page 241 and 242:
Page 243 and 244:
4Changesin Impactsof Climate Extrem
Page 245 and 246:
Chapter 4Changes in Impacts of Clim
Page 247 and 248:
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251 and 252:
Page 253 and 254:
Page 255 and 256:
Page 257 and 258:
Page 259 and 260:
Page 261 and 262:
Page 263 and 264:
Page 265 and 266:
Page 267 and 268:
Page 269 and 270:
Page 271 and 272:
Page 273 and 274:
Page 275 and 276:
Page 277 and 278:
Page 279 and 280:
Page 281 and 282:
Page 283 and 284:
Page 285 and 286:
Page 287 and 288:
Page 289 and 290:
Page 291 and 292:
Page 293 and 294:
Page 295 and 296:
Page 297 and 298:
Page 299 and 300:
Page 301 and 302:
Page 303 and 304:
5Managingthe Risksfrom Climate Extr
Page 305 and 306:
Chapter 5Managing the Risks from Cl
Page 307 and 308:
Page 309 and 310:
Page 311 and 312:
Page 313 and 314:
Page 315 and 316:
Page 317 and 318:
Page 319 and 320:
Page 321 and 322:
Page 323 and 324:
Page 325 and 326:
Page 327 and 328:
Page 329 and 330:
Page 331 and 332:
Page 333 and 334:
Page 335 and 336:
Page 337 and 338:
Page 339 and 340:
Page 341 and 342:
Page 343 and 344:
Page 345 and 346:
Page 347 and 348:
Page 349 and 350:
Page 351 and 352:
6National Systemsfor Managing the R
Page 353 and 354:
Chapter 6National Systems for Manag
Page 355 and 356:
Page 357 and 358:
Page 359 and 360:
Page 361 and 362:
Page 363 and 364:
Page 365 and 366:
Page 367 and 368:
Page 369 and 370:
Page 371 and 372:
Page 373 and 374:
Page 375 and 376:
Page 377 and 378:
Page 379 and 380:
Page 381 and 382:
Page 383 and 384:
Page 385 and 386:
Page 387 and 388:
Page 389 and 390:
Page 391 and 392:
Page 393 and 394:
Page 395 and 396:
Page 397 and 398:
Page 399 and 400:
Page 401 and 402:
Page 403 and 404:
Page 405 and 406:
7Managingthe Risks:International Le
Page 407 and 408:
Chapter 7Managing the Risks: Intern
Page 409 and 410:
Page 411 and 412:
Page 413 and 414:
Page 415 and 416:
Page 417 and 418:
Page 419 and 420:
Page 421 and 422:
Page 423 and 424:
Page 425 and 426:
Page 427 and 428:
Page 429 and 430:
Page 431 and 432:
Page 433 and 434:
Page 435 and 436:
Page 437 and 438:
Page 439 and 440:
Page 441 and 442:
Page 443 and 444:
Page 445 and 446:
Page 447 and 448:
Page 449 and 450:
8Towarda Sustainableand Resilient F
Page 451 and 452:
Chapter 8Toward a Sustainable and R
Page 453 and 454:
Page 455 and 456:
Page 457 and 458:
Page 459 and 460:
Page 461 and 462:
Page 463 and 464:
Page 465 and 466:
Page 467 and 468:
Page 469 and 470:
Page 471 and 472:
Page 473 and 474:
Page 475 and 476:
Page 477 and 478:
Page 479 and 480:
Page 481 and 482:
Page 483 and 484:
Page 485 and 486:
Page 487 and 488:
Page 489 and 490:
Page 491 and 492:
Page 493 and 494:
Page 495 and 496:
Page 497 and 498:
Page 499 and 500:
9 Case StudiesCoordinating Lead Aut
Page 501 and 502:
Chapter 9Case StudiesExecutive Summ
Page 503 and 504:
Chapter 9Case StudiesTable 9-1 | Ma
Page 505 and 506:
Chapter 9Case Studiesbecause heat-r
Page 507 and 508:
Chapter 9Case Studiesneed for other
Page 509 and 510:
Chapter 9Case StudiesAustralian coa
Page 511 and 512:
Chapter 9Case Studiesthat 1.3 milli
Page 513 and 514:
Chapter 9Case Studies• Iron dzud:
Page 515 and 516:
Chapter 9Case Studiesof impact. Bas
Page 517 and 518:
Chapter 9Case StudiesTropical cyclo
Page 519 and 520:
Chapter 9Case Studies9.2.6.5. Outco
Page 521 and 522:
Chapter 9Case Studieswith increased
Page 523 and 524:
Chapter 9Case StudiesThe developmen
Page 525 and 526:
Chapter 9Case StudiesSuch devastati
Page 527 and 528:
Chapter 9Case Studiesbuildings have
Page 529 and 530:
Chapter 9Case Studies• Wind defle
Page 531 and 532:
Chapter 9Case Studiesdeveloped, som
Page 533 and 534:
Chapter 9Case Studiesbeen establish
Page 535 and 536:
Chapter 9Case StudiesTable 9-3 | Ex
Page 537 and 538:
Chapter 9Case Studieswhile they pro
Page 539 and 540:
Chapter 9Case Studiesexperiential l
Page 541 and 542:
Chapter 9Case StudiesThe Philippine
Page 543 and 544:
Chapter 9Case StudiesBeg, N., J.C.
Page 545 and 546:
Chapter 9Case StudiesFlyvbjerg, B.,
Page 547 and 548:
Chapter 9Case StudiesJeuland, M. an
Page 549 and 550:
Chapter 9Case StudiesMétéo France
Page 551 and 552:
Chapter 9Case StudiesRepublic of So
Page 553 and 554:
Chapter 9Case StudiesUNESC, 2000: A
Page 555:
IV Annexes I to IV
Page 558 and 559:
Authors and Expert ReviewersAnnex I
Page 560 and 561:
Page 562 and 563:
Page 564 and 565:
Page 566 and 567:
Page 568 and 569:
Glossary of TermsAnnex IIAbrupt cli
Page 570 and 571:
Glossary of TermsAnnex IIor anthrop
Page 572 and 573:
Glossary of TermsAnnex IIFrozen gro
Page 574 and 575:
Glossary of TermsAnnex IIand time s
Page 576 and 577:
Glossary of TermsAnnex IImain track
Page 578 and 579:
AcronymsAnnex IIIAAO Antarctic Osci
Page 580 and 581:
AcronymsAnnex III568
Page 582 and 583:
List of Major IPCC ReportsAnnex IVC
Page 584 and 585:
List of Major IPCC ReportsAnnex IV5
Page 586 and 587:
IndexIndex | KeyTerms defined in th
Page 588 and 589:
IndexDemographic changes, 80, 234-2
Page 590 and 591:
Indexregional impacts, 259vulnerabi
Page 592 and 593:
IndexOcean acidification, 185, 261O
Page 594:
Indextipping points, 122, 351, 458-
show all

IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?