IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentMeinshausen, M., N. Meinshausen, W. Hare, S.C.B. Raper, K. Frieler, R. Knutti, D.J.Frame, and M.R. Allen, 2009: Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limitingglobal warming to 2°C. Nature, 458(7242), 1158-1162.Menendez, C.G., M. de Castro, J.P. Boulanger, A. D’Onofrio, E. Sanchez, A.A.Sorensson, J. Blazquez, A. Elizalde, D. Jacob, H. Le Treut, Z.X. Li, M.N. Nunez, N.Pessacg, S. Pfeiffer, M. Rojas, A. Rolla, P. Samuelsson, S.A. Solman, and C.Teichmann, 2010: Downscaling extreme month-long anomalies in southernSouth America. Climatic Change, 98(3-4), 379-403.Menendez, M. and P.L. Woodworth, 2010: Changes in extreme high water levels basedon a quasi-global tide-gauge dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, C10011.Menendez, M., F.J. Mendez, I.J. Losada, and N.E. Graham, 2008: Variability ofextreme wave heights in the northeast Pacific Ocean based on buoymeasurements. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L22607.Menne, M.J., and C.N. Williams Jr., 2009: Homogenization of temperature series viapairwise comparisons. Journal of Climate, 22(7), 1700-1717.Merrifield, M.A., Y.L. Firing, and J.J. Marra, 2007: Annual climatologies of extremewater levels. In: Aha Hulikoa: Extreme Events. Proceedings of the HawaiianWinter Workshop, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 23 -26 Jan 2007. SOEST,University of Hawaii, Manoa, HI, pp. 27-32.Miller, R., G. Schmidt, and D. Shindell, 2006: Forced annular variations in the 20thcentury Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Reportmodels. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D18101.Mills, G.A., 2005: A re-examination of the synoptic and mesoscale meteorology ofAsh Wednesday 1983. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 54(1), 35-55.Milly, P.C.D. and K.A. Dunne, 2011: Hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections:The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration. Earth Interactions, 15(1), 1-14.Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L. Delworth, 2002: Increasing risk ofgreat floods in a changing climate. Nature, 415(6871), 514-517.Mimura, N., 1999: Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea levelrise and climate change. Climate Research, 12(2-3), 137-143.Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, and F. Zwiers, 2008: Human-induced arctic moistening. Science,320(5875), 518-520.Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, and G.C. Hegerl, 2011: Human contribution to moreintense precipitation extremes. Nature, 470(7334), 378-381.Min, S.K., and A. Hense, 2007: A Bayesian assessment of climate change usingmultimodel ensembles. Part II: Regional and seasonal mean surface temperatures.Journal of Climate, 20(12), 2769-2790.Mitrovica, J.X., M.E. Tamisiea, E.R. Ivins, L.L.A. Vermeersen, G.A. Milne, and K.Lambeck, 2010: Surface mass loading on a dynamic earth: complexity andcontamination in the geodetic analysis of global sea-level trends. In:Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability [Church, J.A., P.L. Woodworth, T.Aarup, and W.S. Wilson (eds.)]. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK, pp. 285-325.Moberg, A., P.D. Jones, D. Lister, A. Walther, M. Brunet, J. Jacobeit, L.V. Alexander, P.M.Della-Marta, J. Luterbacher, P. Yiou, D. Chen, A.M.G.K. Tank, O. Saladie, J. Sigro, E.Aguilar, H. Alexandersson, C. Almarza, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, M. Begert, H.Bergstroem, R. Boehm, C.J. Butler, J. Caesar, A. Drebs, D. Founda, F.-W. Gerstengarbe,G. Micela, M. Maugeri, H. Osterle, K. Pandzic, M. Petrakis, L. Srnec, R. Tolasz, H.Tuomenvirta, P.C. Werner, H. Linderholm, A. Philipp, H. Wanner, and E. Xoplaki, 2006:Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for theperiod 1901-2000. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 111, D22106.Moise, A.F., and R. Colman, 2009: Tropical Australia and the Australian Monsoon:general assessment and projected changes. In: 18th World IMACS Congress andMODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modellingand Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and InternationalAssociation for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, July 2009[Anderssen, R.S., R.D. Braddock, and L.T.H. Newham (eds.)]. pp. 2042-2048.Morgenstern, O., H. Akiyoshi, S. Bekki, P. Braesicke, N. Butchart, M.P. Chipperfield, D.Cugnet, M. Deushi, S.S. Dhomse, R.R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, N.P. Gillett, S.C.Hardiman, J. Jumelet, D.E. Kinnison, J.F. Lamarque, F. Lott, M. Marchand, M. Michou,T. Nakamura, D. Olivie, T. Peter, D. Plummer, J.A. Pyle, E. Rozanov, D. Saint-Martin,J.F. Scinocca, K. Shibata, M. Sigmond, D. Smale, H. Teyssedre, W. Tian, A. Voldoire,and Y. Yamashita, 2010: Anthropogenic forcing of the Northern Annular Mode inCCMVal-2 models. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 115, D00M03.Mori, N., T. Yasuda, H. Mase, T. Tom, and Y. Oku, 2010: Projection of extreme waveclimate change under global warming. Hydrological Research Letters, 4, 15-19.Mudelsee, M., M. Borngen, G. Tetzlaff, and U. Grunewald, 2003: No upward trendsin the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature, 425(6954),166-169.Muir-Wood, R., 2000: Deglaciation Seismotectonics: a principal influence on intraplateseismogenesis at high latitudes. Quaternary Science Reviews, 19(14-15),1399-1411.Mullan, B., D. Wratt, S. Dean, M. Hollis, S. Allan, T. Williams, and G. Kenny, 2008:Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A Guidance Manual for LocalGovernment in New Zealand. 2nd ed. Ministry for the Environment, Wellington,New Zealand, 149 pp.Müller, W.A. and E. Roeckner, 2008: ENSO teleconnections in projections of futureclimate in ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Climate Dynamics, 31(5), 533-549.Murakami, H., B. Wang, and A. Kitoh, 2011: Future change of western North Pacifictyphoons: Projections by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. Journal ofClimate, 24(4), 1154-1169.Murphy, J.M., B.B.B. Booth, M. Collins, G.R. Harris, D.M.H. Sexton, and M.J. Webb,2007: A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate changefrom perturbed physics ensembles. Philosophical Transactions of the RoyalSociety A, 365(1857), 1993-2028.Murphy, J.M., D.M. Sexton, G.J. Jenkins, B.B.B. Booth, C.C. Brown, R.T. Clark, M.Collins, G.R. Harris, E.J. Kendon, R.A. Betts, S.J. Brown, K.A. Humphrey, M.P.McCarthy, R.E. McDonald, A. Stephens, C. Wallace, R. Warren, R. Wilby, and R.A.Wood, 2009: UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate change projections.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.Nakaegawa, T. and W. Vergara, 2010: First projection of climatological mean riverdischarges in the Magdalena River Basin, Colombia, in a changing climate duringthe 21st century. Hydrological Research Letters, 4, 50-54.Nakamura, M., S. Kanada, Y. Wakazuki, C. Muroi, A. Hashimoto, T. Kato, A. Noda, M.Yoshizaki, and K. Yasunaga, 2008: Effects of global warming on heavy rainfallduring the Baiu season projected by a cloud-system-resolving model. Journal ofDisaster Research, 3(1), 15-24.Nandintsetseg, B., J.S. Greene, and C.E. Goulden, 2007: Trends in extreme dailyprecipitation and temperature near lake Hövsgöl, Mongolia. InternationalJournal of Climatology, 27(3), 341-347.Narama, C., Y. Shimamura, D. Nakayama, and K. Abdrakhmatov, 2006: Recentchanges of glacier coverage in the western Terskey-Alatoo range, KyrgyzRepublic, using Corona and Landsat. Annals of Glaciology, 43(1), 223-229.National Climate Centre, 2009: The Exceptional January-February 2009 Heatwavein Southeastern Australia. Special Climate Statement 17 (www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs17d.pdf), Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne,Australia.Neill, S.P., J.D. Scourse, G.R. Bigg, and K. Uehara, 2009: Changes in wave climate overthe northwest European shelf seas during the last 12,000 years. Journal ofGeophysical Research – Oceans, 114, C06015.Neu, U., 2008: Is recent major hurricane activity normal? Nature, 451(7181), E5.New, M., B. Hewitson, D.B. Stephenson, A. Tsiga, A. Kruger, A. Manhique, B. Gomez,C.A.S. Coelho, D.N. Masisi, E. Kulunaga, E. Mbambalala, F. Adesina, H. Saleh, J.Kanyanga, J. Adosi, L. Bulane, L. Fortunata, M.L. Mdoka, and R. Lajoie, 2006:Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa.Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D14102.Newhall, C.G. and R.S. Punongbayan (eds.), 1996: Fire and Mud: Eruptions andLahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines. University of Washington Press, Seattle,WA, 1126 pp.Niall, S. and K. Walsh, 2005: The impact of climate change on hailstorms insoutheastern Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 25(14), 1933-1952.Nicholls, N., 1995: Long-term climate monitoring and extreme events. ClimaticChange, 31(2-4), 231-245.Nicholls, N., 2008: Recent trends in the seasonal and temporal behaviour of the ElNiño Southern Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L19703.Nicholls, N., 2010: Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumnwinterrainfall decline, 1958-2007. Climate Dynamics, 34(6), 835-845.219