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Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentChapter 3Table 3-3 (continued)E. Asia (Continued)Regions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessW. Asia(WAS, 19)TibetanPlateau(TIB, 21)High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: Likely more frequent,longer and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (T06; Clark et al., 2010; OS11).Medium confidence: Some dependency ofmagnitude of signal on index choice (OS11).Low confidence: Inconsistent signal of change in HP(T06; Fig. 3-6; Fig. 3-7).Low confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD and SMA (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G G G G GHigh confidence: Likely more frequent,longer, and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (T06; Clark et al., 2010; OS11).Medium confidence: Increase in HP (T06; Figs. 3-6and 3-7).Low confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD (T06; SW08b; Fig.3-10).G G G G GF. Australia/New ZealandRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll Australiaand NewZealandN. Australia(NAU, 25)S. Australia/New Zealand(SAU, 26)High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease in all regions (CSIRO,2007; Mullan et al., 2008; Fig. 3-3). Very likelyincrease in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease (CSIRO, 2007; Fig. 3-3). Very likely increase in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease (CSIRO, 2007; Fig. 3-3). Very likely increase in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).Low confidence to medium confidence:Strongest New Zealand increases in WD inNorth Island and largest decreases in frost daysin South Island (Mullan et al., 2008).High confidence: WN very likely to increaseeverywhere (T06; Kharin et al., 2007;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig. 3-4) andCN very likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: WN increaseeverywhere. Largest increases in WN in N.compared with S. and most consistentchanges in inland regions (Alexander andArblaster, 2009).High confidence: WN very likely to increase(T06; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig. 3-4) and CN very likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: Changes larger than inS. Australia (Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).High confidence: WN very likely to increase(T06; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig. 3-4) and CN very likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: Changes smaller thanin N. Australia (Alexander and Arblaster,2009).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).Medium confidence: Strongest increases inHW duration in N.W. and most consistentincreases inland (Alexander and Arblaster,2009).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; OS11).Medium confidence: Strongest increases inN.W. and most consistent increases inland(Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; OS11).Medium confidence: Most consistentincreases inland (Alexander and Arblaster,2009).Low confidence: Lack of agreement regarding signof change for different models and different indices,and spatial variations in signal (T06; Figs. 3-6 and 3-7).Low confidence: HPD tend to increase in E. anddecrease in W. half of country – but considerableinter-model inconsistencies; HPC tends to increaseeverywhere – but considerable inter-modelinconsistencies (Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).Low confidence: Lack of agreement regarding signof change for different models and different indices(T06; Fig. 3-6, Fig. 3-7).Low confidence: Lack of agreement regarding signof change for different models and different indices,and spatial variations in signal (T06; Fig. 3-6, Fig. 3-7).Low confidence to medium confidence: In NewZealand, increase in HP events at most locations(Mullan et al., 2008; Carey-Smith et al., 2010).Low confidence to mediumconfidence depending on region:Models agree on increase in CDD inS. Australia, but inconsistent signalover most of S. Australia in SMA;inconsistent signal in CDD and SMAin N. Australia (T06; SW08b; Fig. 3-10). Strongest CDD increases in W.half of Australia (Alexander andArblaster, 2009). Inconsistentchange in area of droughtdepending on index used (Burke andBrown, 2008).G G G G GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalin CDD and SMA (T06; SW08b; Fig.3-10).G G G G GMedium confidence: Models agreeon increase in CDD in southernAustralia including S.W. (T06;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig.3-10), but inconsistent signal inSMA over most of the region, slightdecrease in S.W. (SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G R G G G R G202
Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentReferencesA digital library of non-journal-based literature cited in this chapter thatmay not be readily available to the public has been compiled as part ofthe IPCC review and drafting process, and can be accessed via either theIPCC Secretariat or IPCC Working Group II web sites.Abbs, D., and T. Rafter, 2008: The Effect of Climate Change on Extreme RainfallEvents in the Western Port Region. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research,Aspendale, Australia, 23 pp.Abeysirigunawardena, D.S. and I.J. Walker, 2008: Sea level responses to climaticvariability and change in northern British Columbia. Atmosphere-Ocean, 46(3),277-296.Abeysirigunawardena, D.S., E. Gilleland, D. Bronaugh, and W. Wong, 2009:Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the innersouth coast of British Columbia, Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, 47(1), 41-62.Adams, P.N., D.L. Imnan, and N.E. Graham, 2008: Southern California deep-waterwave climate: Characterization and application to coastal processes. Journal ofCoastal Research, 24(4), 1022-1035.Aguilar, E., T.C. Peterson, P. Ramírez Obando, R. Frutos, J.A. Retana, M. Solera, J. Soley,I. González García, R.M. Araujo, A. Rosa Santos, V.E. Valle, M. Brunet, L. Aguilar,L. Álvarez, M. Bautista, C. Castañón, L. Herrara, E. Ruano, J.J. Sinay, E. Sánchez,G.I. Hernández Oviedo, F. Obed, J.E. Salgado, J.L. Vázquez, M. Baca, M. Gutiérrez,C. Centella, J. Espinosa, D. Martinez, B. Olmedo, C.E. Ojeda Espinoza, R. Núñez,M. Haylock, H. Benavides, and R. Mayorga, 2005: Changes in precipitation andtemperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961-2003. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 110, D23107.Aguilar, E., A. Aziz Barry, M. Brunet, L. Ekang, A. Fernandes, M. Massoukina, J. Mbah,A. Mhanda, D.J. do Nascimento, T.C. Peterson, M. Thamba Umba, M. Tomou, andX. 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Vincent, D.B. Stephenson, J. Burn, E. Aguilar, M. Brunet,M. Taylor, M. New, P. Zhai, M. Rusticucci, and J.L. Vazquez-Aguirre, 2006: Globalobserved changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 111, D05109.Alexander, L.V., P. Uotila, and N. Nicholls, 2009: Influence of sea surface temperaturevariability on global temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal ofGeophysical Research – Atmospheres, 114, D18116.Alexander, L.V., X.L. Wang, H. Wan, and B. Trewin, 2011: Significant decline instorminess over southeast Australia since the late 19th century. AustralianMeteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 61(1), 23-30.Ali, A. and T. Lebel, 2009: The Sahelian standardized rainfall index revisited.International Journal of Climatology, 29(12), 1705-1714.Allamano, P., P. Claps, and F. Laio, 2009: Global warming increases flood risk inmountainous areas. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L24404.Allan, J.C. and P.D. Komar, 2006: Climate controls on US West Coast erosion processes.Journal of Coastal Research, 22(3), 511-529.Allan, R., S. Tett, and L. Alexander, 2009: Fluctuations in autumn-winter severe stormsover the British Isles: 1920 to present. International Journal of Climatology,29(3), 357-371.Allan, R.P. and B.J. Soden, 2008: Atmospheric warming and the amplification ofprecipitation extremes. Science, 321(5895), 1481-1484.Allen, M., 2003: Liability for climate change: will it ever be possible to sue anyonefor damaging the climate? Nature, 421(6926), 891-892.Allen, M.R., D.J. Frame, C. Huntingford, C.D. Jones, J.A. Lowe, M. Meinshausen, andN. Meinshausen, 2009: Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissionstowards the trillionth tonne. Nature, 458(7242), 1163-1166.Allen, S.K., S.C. Cox, and I.F. Owens, 2011: Rock-avalanches and other landslides inthe central Southern Alps of New Zealand: A regional assessment of possibleclimate change impacts. Landslides, 8(1), 33-48.An, S.I., A. Timmermann, L. Bejarano, F.F. Jin, F. Justino, Z. Liu, and A.W. Tudhope, 2004:Modeling evidence for enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude duringthe Last Glacial Maximum. Paleoceanography, 19, PA4009.Anders, I., and B. Rockel, 2009: The influence of prescribed soil type distribution onthe representation of present climate in a regional climate model. ClimateDynamics, 33(2-3), 177-186.Andersen, O.B., S.I. Seneviratne, J. Hinderer, and P. Viterbo, 2005: GRACE-derivedterrestrial water storage depletion associated with the 2003 European heatwave. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L18405.Anderson, C.J., R.W. Arritt, E.S. Takle, Z.T. Pan, W.J. Gutowski, F.O. Otieno, R. da Silva,D. Caya, J.H. Christensen, D. Luthi, M.A. Gaertner, C. Gallardo, F. Giorgi, S.Y. Hong,C. Jones, H.M.H. Juang, J.J. Katzfey, W.M. Lapenta, R. Laprise, J.W. Larson, G.E.Liston, J.L. McGregor, R.A. Pielke, J.O. Roads, and J.A. Taylor, 2003: Hydrologicalprocesses in regional climate model simulations of the central United Statesflood of June-July 1993. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4(3), 584-598.Andrade, C., H.O. Pires, R. Taborda, and M.C. Freitas, 2007: Projecting future changesin wave climate and coastal response in Portugal by the end of the 21st century.Journal of Coastal Research, SI50, 253-257.Andreadis, K.M. and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2006: Trends in 20th century drought over thecontinental United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L10403.Andreadis, K.M., E.A. Clark, A.W. Wood, A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2005:Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States. Journal ofHydrometeorology, 6(6), 985-1001.Arblaster, J.M., G.A. Meehl, and D.J. Karoly, 2011: Future climate change in theSouthern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases.Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L02701.Arriaga-Ramírez, S. and T. Cavazos, 2010: Regional trends of daily precipitationindices in Northwest Mexico and the Southwest United States. Journal ofGeophysical Research – Atmospheres, 115, D14111.Aryal, S.K., B.C. Bates, E.D. Campbell, Y. Li, M.J. Palmer, and N.R. Viney, 2009:Characterizing and modeling temporal and spatial trends in rainfall extremes.Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10(1), 241-253.Ashfaq, M., Y. Shi, W.W. Tung, R.J. Trapp, X. Gao, S.J. Pal, and N.S. Diffenbaugh, 2009:Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century.Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L01704.Asokan, S.M., and D. Dutta, 2008: Analysis of water resources in the Mahanadi RiverBasin, India under projected climate conditions. Hydrological Processes,22(18), 3589-3603.Augustinus, P., 1995: Rock mass strength and the stability of some glacial valleyslopes. Zeitschrift Für Geomorphologie, 39(1), 55-68.Aunan, K., and B. Romstad, 2008: Strong coasts and vulnerable communities:Potential implications of accelerated sea-level rise for Norway. Journal ofCoastal Research, 24(2), 403-409.Bader, J., M.D.S. Mesquita, K.I. Hodges, N. Keenlyside, S. Østerhus, and M. Miles,2011: A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the NorthAtlantic Oscillation: Observations and projected changes. AtmosphericResearch, 101(4), 809-834, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.1004.1007.Bajracharya, S.R. and P. Mool, 2009: Glaciers, glacial lakes and glacial lake outburstfloods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal. Annals of Glaciology, 50(53), 81-86.203
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MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREMEEVENTS
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Managing the Risks of Extreme Event
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ContentsSection IForeword .........
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ForewordForewordThis Special Report
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Prefacein understanding and managin
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Summary for PolicymakersA.ContextTh
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Summary for PolicymakersFigure SPM.
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Summary for Policymakerssettlements
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Summary for PolicymakersC.Disaster
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Summary for Policymakers20103146957
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Summary for Policymakers50201053W.
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Summary for PolicymakersOscillation
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Summary for PolicymakersTable SPM.1
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Summary for Policymakersimportance
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Summary for Policymakers22
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1Climate Change:New Dimensions inDi
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Chapter 1Climate Change: New Dimens
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2Determinantsof Risk:Exposure and V
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Chapter 2Determinants of Risk: Expo
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3Changesin Climate Extremesand thei
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137in annual extremes (20-year extr
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5Managingthe Risksfrom Climate Extr
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Chapter 5Managing the Risks from Cl
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6National Systemsfor Managing the R
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7Managingthe Risks:International Le
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Chapter 7Managing the Risks: Intern
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8Towarda Sustainableand Resilient F
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Chapter 8Toward a Sustainable and R
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9 Case StudiesCoordinating Lead Aut
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Chapter 9Case StudiesExecutive Summ
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Chapter 9Case StudiesTable 9-1 | Ma
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Chapter 9Case Studiesbecause heat-r
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Chapter 9Case Studiesneed for other
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Chapter 9Case StudiesAustralian coa
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Chapter 9Case Studiesthat 1.3 milli
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Chapter 9Case Studiesof impact. Bas
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Chapter 9Case Studieswith increased
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Chapter 9Case StudiesThe developmen
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Chapter 9Case StudiesSuch devastati
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Chapter 9Case Studiesbuildings have
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Chapter 9Case Studies• Wind defle
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Chapter 9Case Studiesdeveloped, som
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Chapter 9Case Studiesbeen establish
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Chapter 9Case StudiesTable 9-3 | Ex
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Chapter 9Case StudiesUNESC, 2000: A
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IV Annexes I to IV
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Authors and Expert ReviewersAnnex I
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIAbrupt cli
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIor anthrop
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIFrozen gro
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIand time s
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IImain track
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AcronymsAnnex IIIAAO Antarctic Osci
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AcronymsAnnex III568
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List of Major IPCC ReportsAnnex IVC
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List of Major IPCC ReportsAnnex IV5
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IndexIndex | KeyTerms defined in th
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IndexDemographic changes, 80, 234-2
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Indexregional impacts, 259vulnerabi
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IndexOcean acidification, 185, 261O
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Indextipping points, 122, 351, 458-
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