IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentChapter 3Table 3-3 (continued)E. Asia (Continued)Regions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessW. Asia(WAS, 19)TibetanPlateau(TIB, 21)High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: Likely more frequent,longer and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (T06; Clark et al., 2010; OS11).Medium confidence: Some dependency ofmagnitude of signal on index choice (OS11).Low confidence: Inconsistent signal of change in HP(T06; Fig. 3-6; Fig. 3-7).Low confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD and SMA (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G G G G GHigh confidence: Likely more frequent,longer, and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (T06; Clark et al., 2010; OS11).Medium confidence: Increase in HP (T06; Figs. 3-6and 3-7).Low confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD (T06; SW08b; Fig.3-10).G G G G GF. Australia/New ZealandRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll Australiaand NewZealandN. Australia(NAU, 25)S. Australia/New Zealand(SAU, 26)High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease in all regions (CSIRO,2007; Mullan et al., 2008; Fig. 3-3). Very likelyincrease in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease (CSIRO, 2007; Fig. 3-3). Very likely increase in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease (CSIRO, 2007; Fig. 3-3). Very likely increase in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).Low confidence to medium confidence:Strongest New Zealand increases in WD inNorth Island and largest decreases in frost daysin South Island (Mullan et al., 2008).High confidence: WN very likely to increaseeverywhere (T06; Kharin et al., 2007;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig. 3-4) andCN very likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: WN increaseeverywhere. Largest increases in WN in N.compared with S. and most consistentchanges in inland regions (Alexander andArblaster, 2009).High confidence: WN very likely to increase(T06; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig. 3-4) and CN very likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: Changes larger than inS. Australia (Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).High confidence: WN very likely to increase(T06; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig. 3-4) and CN very likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: Changes smaller thanin N. Australia (Alexander and Arblaster,2009).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).Medium confidence: Strongest increases inHW duration in N.W. and most consistentincreases inland (Alexander and Arblaster,2009).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; OS11).Medium confidence: Strongest increases inN.W. and most consistent increases inland(Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; OS11).Medium confidence: Most consistentincreases inland (Alexander and Arblaster,2009).Low confidence: Lack of agreement regarding signof change for different models and different indices,and spatial variations in signal (T06; Figs. 3-6 and 3-7).Low confidence: HPD tend to increase in E. anddecrease in W. half of country – but considerableinter-model inconsistencies; HPC tends to increaseeverywhere – but considerable inter-modelinconsistencies (Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).Low confidence: Lack of agreement regarding signof change for different models and different indices(T06; Fig. 3-6, Fig. 3-7).Low confidence: Lack of agreement regarding signof change for different models and different indices,and spatial variations in signal (T06; Fig. 3-6, Fig. 3-7).Low confidence to medium confidence: In NewZealand, increase in HP events at most locations(Mullan et al., 2008; Carey-Smith et al., 2010).Low confidence to mediumconfidence depending on region:Models agree on increase in CDD inS. Australia, but inconsistent signalover most of S. Australia in SMA;inconsistent signal in CDD and SMAin N. Australia (T06; SW08b; Fig. 3-10). Strongest CDD increases in W.half of Australia (Alexander andArblaster, 2009). Inconsistentchange in area of droughtdepending on index used (Burke andBrown, 2008).G G G G GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalin CDD and SMA (T06; SW08b; Fig.3-10).G G G G GMedium confidence: Models agreeon increase in CDD in southernAustralia including S.W. (T06;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig.3-10), but inconsistent signal inSMA over most of the region, slightdecrease in S.W. (SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G R G G G R G202