IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentTable 3-3 (continued)E. AsiaRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll AsiaN. Asia(NAS, 18)Central Asia(CAS, 20)E. Asia(EAS, 22)S.E. Asia(SEA, 24)S. Asia(SAS, 23)High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease in all regions (Fig. 3-3). Likelyincrease in RV20AHD in all regions (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease across the region (Clark etal., 2010; Fig. 3-3), including in Korea (Boo etal., 2006; Im and Kwon, 2007; Im et al., 2008,2011; Koo et al., 2009). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Kumar et al., 2006;Rajendran and Kitoh, 2008; Fig. 3-3). Likelyincrease in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Kharin et al., 2007; Fig. 3-4) and CN likely todecrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4),including in Korea (Boo et al., 2006; Koo etal., 2009; Im et al., 2011).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: Extreme nighttimetemperature warms faster than daytime(Kumar et al., 2006).Low confidence to high confidencedepending on region:Likely more frequent and/or longer heatwaves and warm spells in most regions(continental) on the annual time scale; lowconfidence due to inconsistent signal inIndonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Papua NewGuinea, and neighboring islands for someHW indices (T06; OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent,longer and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (T06; Clark et al., 2010; OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent,longer, and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (T06; Clark et al., 2010; OS11).Low confidence to high confidencedepending on subregion and index: Likelymore frequent and/or longer heat waves andwarm spells on the annual time scale overcontinental areas; Low confidence inchanges in some HW indices but modelagreement of increases in a WS index inIndonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Papua NewGuinea, and neighboring islands (T06;OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells onannual time scale (T06; OS11).Medium confidence: Some dependency ofmagnitude of signal on index choice (OS11).Low confidence to high confidence depending onregion and index: High confidence regarding likelyincrease in HP in N. Asia; medium confidenceregarding increase in HP in S.E. Asia, E. Asia, andTibetan Plateau; low confidence regarding increasein HP in S. and W. Asia (T06; Figs. 3-6 and 3-7).High confidence: Likely increase in HP (T06; Figs. 3-6 and 3-7) including more frequent and intense HPDover most regions (Emori and Brown, 2005;Kamiguchi et al., 2006).Low confidence: Inconsistent signal in modelsregarding changes in HP (T06; Fig. 3-6). Somemodel consistency in projections of RV20HP (Fig. 3-7).Medium confidence: Increases in HP (less consistentin %DP10 than other indicators) across the region(T06; Figs. 3-6 and 3-7), including increase in Japanand Korea (Emori and Brown, 2005; Kimoto et al.,2005; Boo et al., 2006; Kamiguchi et al., 2006;Kusunoki and Mizuta, 2008; Kitoh et al., 2009; Su etal., 2009; Kim et al., 2010; Im et al., 2011).Medium confidence: Inconsistent signal in changeof %DP10 across models (T06; Fig. 3-6) but morefrequent and intense HPD, including increase inRV20HP, suggested by other indicators over mostregions especially non-continental parts (Emori andBrown, 2005; Kamiguchi et al., 2006; Figs. 3-6 and3-7).Low confidence: Slight or no increase in %DP10(T06; Fig. 3-6). Some model consistency regardingincrease in RV20HP (Fig. 3-7).Low confidence: More frequent and intense HPDover parts of S. Asia (Emori and Brown, 2005;Kamiguchi et al., 2006; Kharin et al., 2007;Rajendran and Kitoh, 2008).Low confidence: Inconsistent changein CDD and SMA between models inlarge part of domain (T06; Fig. 3-10).G G G G GLow confidence: Inconsistent changein dryness (CDD, SMA) betweenmodels in large part of domain (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G G G G GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalsacross indices (CDD, SMA) (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G G G G GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalacross indices (CDD, SMA) (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G R G R G G R GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD and/or SMA (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G G G G GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD and SMA (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G R G R G G R GContinued next page201