IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentChapter 3Table 3-3 (continued)B. Europe and Mediterranean RegionRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll Europe andMediterraneanRegionN. Europe(NEU, 11)CentralEurope(CEU, 12)High confidence: WD very likely to increase –largest increases in summer and Central/S.Europe and smallest in N. Europe (Scandinavia)(Goubanova and Li, 2007; Kjellström et al.,2007; Koffi and Koffi, 2008; Fischer and Schär,2010; Fig. 3-3) and CD very likely to decrease(Fig. 3-3). Likely increase in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).Medium confidence: Changes in higherquantiles of Tmax generally greater thanchanges in lower quantiles of Tmax in summerin Central Europe and Mediterranean(Diffenbaugh et al., 2007; Kjellström et al.,2007; Fischer and Schär, 2009, 2010; OS11).High confidence: Very likely increase infrequency of WD, but smaller than in Centraland S. Europe (Fischer and Schär, 2010; Fig. 3-3). Very likely decrease in CD (Fig. 3-3). Likelyincrease in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).Medium confidence: Changes in lowerquantiles of Tmax generally greater than forchanges in higher quantiles of Tmax in fall,winter, and spring in Scandinavia andnortheastern Europe (OS11).High confidence: Very likely increase infrequency and intensity of WD (Fischer andSchär, 2010; Fig. 3-3) and decrease infrequency of CD (Fig. 3-3). Very likely increasein RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).Medium confidence: Changes in higherquantiles of Tmax much larger than changes inlower quantiles of Tmax in summer; results invery large increase in Tmax variability(Diffenbaugh et al., 2007; Kjellström et al.,2007; Fischer and Schär, 2009, 2010; OS11).High confidence: CN very likely to decrease– largest decreases in winter in E. Europeand Scandinavia (Goubanova and Li, 2007;Kjellström et al., 2007; Sillmann andRoeckner, 2008). WN very likely to increase(T06; Fig. 3-4).High confidence: CN very likely to decrease(Kjellström et al., 2007; Sillmann andRoeckner, 2008; Fig. 3-4); WN very likely toincrease (T06; Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: Changes in lowerquantiles of Tmin generally greater thanchanges in higher quantiles of Tmin inScandinavia and northeastern Europe(Kjellström et al., 2007; OS11).High confidence: CN very likely to decrease(Goubanova and Li, 2007; Kjellström et al.,2007; Sillmann and Roeckner, 2008); WNvery likely to increase (T06; Fig. 3-4).High confidence: Likely more frequent,longer, and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells but little change overScandinavia (Beniston et al., 2007; Koffi andKoffi, 2008; Clark et al., 2010; OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent,longer and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells, but summer increases smallerthan in S. Europe and little change overScandinavia (Beniston et al., 2007; Koffi andKoffi, 2008; Fischer and Schär, 2010; OS11).Medium confidence: Some dependency ofprojections of changes in HW intensity onparameterization choice (Clark et al., 2010).High confidence: Likely more frequent,longer, and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (Beniston et al., 2007; Koffi andKoffi, 2008; Clark et al., 2010; Fischer andSchär, 2010; OS11).Medium confidence: Some dependency ofprojections of changes in HW intensity onparameterization choice (Clark et al., 2010).Low confidence to high confidence, depending onregion: Likely overall increases in HPD, %DP10, andRV20HP and decreases in return periods of long (5-day) and short (1-day) events; strong signals in N.Europe particularly in winter, but lower confidencein changes in Central Europe and in particular theMediterranean (T06; Beniston et al., 2007; Fowler etal., 2007a; Sillmann and Roeckner, 2008; Kendon etal., 2010; Figs. 3-6 and 3-7).Likely increase in HPC in some regions (Boberg etal., 2009b; Kendon et al., 2010).Likely greater changes in extremes than mean inmany regions. Increase in HP intensity (and increasein HPC) despite decrease in summer mean in someregions – e.g., Central Europe (Beniston et al., 2007;Fowler et al., 2007a; Haugen and Iversen, 2008;May, 2008; Kyselý and Beranová, 2009).High confidence: Very likely increases in HP(intensity and frequency) and %DP10 north of 45°Nin winter (Frei et al., 2006; T06; Beniston et al.,2007; Kendon et al., 2008; Fig. 3-6). Likely increasein RV20HP (Fig. 3-7).High confidence: Likely increases in HP (intensityand frequency) in large part of the region in winter(Frei et al., 2006; Beniston et al., 2007; Kendon etal., 2008; Kyselý and Beranová, 2009; Fig. 3-6).Likely increase in RV20HP (Fig. 3-7).Medium confidence: Inconsistent evidence forsummer: increase in HP in summer evident in RCMs(Christensen and Christensen, 2003; Frei et al.,2006) versus no signal in GCMs (Fig. 3-6).Medium confidence: European areaaffected by stronger dryness(reduced SMA and CDD) with largestand most consistent changes inMediterranean Europe (T06; Burkeand Brown, 2008; May, 2008;SW08b; Sillmann and Roeckner,2008; Fig. 3-10).G R G R G R G R G RMedium confidence: No majorchanges in dryness (CDD, SMA) in N.Europe (T06; SW08b; Sillmann andRoeckner, 2008; Fig. 3-10).G R G R G R G R GMedium confidence: Increase indryness (CDD, SMA) in CentralEurope (Seneviratne et al., 2006a;T06; Fig. 3-10).Medium confidence: Increase inshort-term droughts (SW08b).G R G R G R G R G RContinued next page198