IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

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Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentChapter 3Table 3-2 (continued)B. Europe and Mediterranean RegionRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll Europe andMediterraneanRegionN. Europe(NEU, 11)CentralEurope(CEU, 12)S. Europe andMediterranean(MED, 13)High confidence: Overall likely increase in WDand likely decrease of CD over most of thecontinent since 1950. Strong increasing tendencyin WD in most regions since 1976 onward; smallor insignificant decrease in CD over same period(Alexander et al., 2006; see also entries forindividual subregions).Medium confidence: Increase in WD anddecrease in CD. Consistent signals for wholeregion, but generally not significant at the localscale (Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Likely overall increase in WDand likely decrease in CD since 1950 in mostregions. Some regional and temporal variationsin significance of trends.High confidence: Very likely increase in WD since1950, 1901 and 1880 and likely decrease in CDsince 1950 and 1901 in west Central Europe(Alexander et al., 2006; Della-Marta et al.,2007a; Laurent and Parey, 2007).Medium confidence: Lower confidence in trendsin east Central Europe due to lack of literature,partial lack of access to observations, overallweaker signals, and change point in trends atthe end of the 1970s / beginning of 1980s.Strongest increase in WD since 1976 (Alexanderet al., 2006; Bartholy and Pongracz, 2007;Hirschi et al., 2011).High confidence: Likely increase in WD and likelydecrease in CD in most of the region. Someregional and temporal variations in significanceof trends. Likely strongest and most significanttrends in the Iberian Peninsula and southernFrance (Alexander et al., 2006; Brunet et al.,2007; Della-Marta et al., 2007a; Bartolini et al.,2008; Kuglitsch et al., 2010; Rodríguez-Puebla etal., 2010; Hirschi et al., 2011).Medium confidence: Smaller or less significanttrends in S.E. Europe and Italy due to changepoint in trends at the end of the 1970s /beginning of 1980s; sometimes linked withchanges in sign of trends; strongest WD increasesince 1976 (Bartholy and Pongracz, 2007;Bartolini et al., 2008; Toreti and Desiato, 2008;Kuglitsch et al., 2010; Hirschi et al., 2011).High confidence: Overall likely increase inWN and likely decrease in CN over most ofthe continent since 1950. Strong increasingtendency in WN in most regions since 1976onward; small or insignificant decrease inCN over same period (Klein Tank andKönnen, 2003; Alexander et al., 2006; seealso entries for individual subregions).Medium confidence: Increase in WN anddecrease in CN. Consistent signals overwhole region but generally not significant atthe local scale (Klein Tank and Können,2003; Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Likely overall increase inWN and likely overall decrease in CN at theyearly time scale. Some regional andseasonal variations in significance and in afew cases also the sign of the trends.High confidence: Very likely increase in WNand very likely decrease in CN since 1950and 1901 in west Central Europe (Kiktev etal., 2003; Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Lower confidence intrends in east Central Europe due to lack ofliterature, partial lack of access toobservations, overall weaker signals, andchange point in trends at the end of the1970s / beginning of 1980s. (Klein Tank andKönnen, 2003; Alexander et al., 2006;Bartholy and Pongracz, 2007).High confidence: Likely increase in WN andlikely decrease in CN in most of the region.Some regional variations in significance oftrends.Very likely overall increase in WN and verylikely overall decrease in CN in S.W. Europeand W. Mediterranean; likely strongestsignals in Spain and southern France (Kiktevet al., 2003; Klein Tank and Können, 2003;Alexander et al., 2006; Brunet et al., 2007;Rodríguez-Puebla et al., 2010). Likely overalltendency for increase in WN and likelyoverall tendency for decrease in CN in S.E.Europe and E. Mediterranean (Kiktev et al.,2003; Klein Tank and Können, 2003;Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Increase of HWsince 1950. Overall consistent positivetrend of WSDI across Europe, but nocoherent region with significant trends(Alexander et al., 2006). Availability of afew single studies for specific regions(see below).Medium confidence: Increase in HW.Consistent tendency for increase inWSDI, but no significant trends(Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Increase in heatwaves. Consistent tendency for WSDIincrease but no significant trends(Alexander et al., 2006). Significantincrease in max HW duration since 1880in west Central Europe in summer (JJA)(Della-Marta et al., 2007a). Lesssignificant signal in heat wave indices ineast Central Europe due to presence ofchange point (Bartholy and Pongracz,2007; Hirschi et al., 2011).High confidence: Likely overall increasein HW in summer (JJA). Significantincrease in max HW duration since 1880in Iberian Peninsula and west CentralEurope in JJA (Della-Marta et al.,2007a). Significant increase in max HWduration in Tuscany (Italy) (Bartolini etal., 2008). Significant increase in HWindices in Turkey and to a smaller extentin S.E. Europe and Turkey in JJA(Kuglitsch et al., 2010). Less significantsignal in HW indices in S.E. Europe dueto presence of change point in trends(Bartholy and Pongracz, 2007; Hirschi etal., 2011).Medium confidence: Increase in part of theregion, mostly in winter, insignificant orinconsistent changes elsewhere, inparticular in summer. Some inconsistenciesin overall patterns between studiesdepending on considered indices. Mostconsistent signal over central W. Europeand European Russia (Klein Tank andKönnen, 2003; Haylock and Goodess, 2004;Alexander et al., 2006; Zolina et al., 2009).Medium confidence: Increase in winter insome areas, but often insignificant orinconsistent trends at subregional scale, inparticular in summer (Fowler and Kilsby,2003; Kiktev et al., 2003; Klein Tank andKönnen, 2003; Alexander et al., 2006;Maraun et al., 2008; Zolina et al., 2009).Medium confidence: Increase in part of thedomain, in particular in central W. Europeand European Russia, especially in winter.Insignificant or inconsistent trendselsewhere, in particular in summer (Kiktevet al., 2003; Klein Tank and Können, 2003;Schmidli and Frei, 2005; Alexander et al.,2006; Bartholy and Pongracz, 2007; Kyselý,2009; Tomassini and Jacob, 2009; Zolina etal., 2009).Low confidence: Inconsistent trends withindomain and across studies (Kiktev et al.,2003; Klein Tank and Können, 2003;Alexander et al., 2006; García et al., 2007;Pavan et al., 2008; Zolina et al., 2009;Rodrigo, 2010).Medium confidence: Inconsistent trends.Increase in dryness (SMA, PDSI, CDD) inpart of the region; insignificant,inconsistent, or no changes elsewhere.Most consistent signal for increase indryness in central and S. Europe since the1950s. No signal in N. Europe (Kiktev et al.,2003; Haylock and Goodess, 2004;Alexander et al., 2006; Sheffield and Wood,2008a; Dai, 2011).Medium confidence: Spatially varyingtrends. Overall only slight or no increase indryness (SMA, PDSI, CDD), slight decreasein dryness in part of the region (Kiktev etal., 2003; Alexander et al., 2006; Sheffieldand Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011).Medium confidence: Spatially varyingtrends. Increase in dryness (SMA, PDSI,CDD) in part of the region but someregional variation in dryness trends anddependence of trends on consideredstudies (index, time period) (Kiktev et al.,2003; Alexander et al., 2006; Bartholy andPongracz, 2007; Sheffield and Wood,2008a; Brázdil et al., 2009; Dai, 2011).Medium confidence: Overall increase indryness (SMA, PDSI, CDD), but partialdependence on index and time period(Kiktev et al., 2003; Alexander et al., 2006;Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011).Continued next page192
Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentTable 3-2 (continued)C. AfricaRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll AfricaW. Africa(WAF, 15)E. Africa(EAF, 16)S. Africa(SAF, 17)Sahara(SAH, 14)Low confidence to medium confidence: Lowconfidence due to insufficient evidence (lack ofliterature) in many regions. Medium confidencein increase in frequency of WD and decrease infrequency of CD in southern part of continent(Alexander et al., 2006). See also regionalassessments.Medium confidence: Significant increase intemperature of warmest day and coldest day,significant increase in frequency of WD, andsignificant decrease in frequency of CD inwestern central Africa, Guinea Conakry, Nigeria,and Gambia (New et al., 2006; Aguilar et al.,2009).Low confidence: Lack of literature in other partsof the region.Low confidence: Lack of evidence due to lack ofliterature and spatially non-uniform trends. Overtime period 1939–1992 spatially non-uniformtrends in daytime temperature, some areas withcooling (King’uyu et al., 2000). In southern tip ofdomain increases in WD, decreases in CD(Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Increases in WD, decreasesin CD (Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence to medium confidencedepending on region: Low confidence due toinsufficient evidence (lack of literature) inmany regions. Medium confidence inincrease in frequency of WN in northern andsouthern part of continent (Alexander et al.,2006). Medium confidence in decrease infrequency of CN in southern part ofcontinent (Alexander et al., 2006). See alsoregional assessments.Medium confidence: Decreases in frequencyof CN in western central Africa, Nigeria, andGambia; insignificant decreases in frequencyof CN in Guinea Conakry (New et al., 2006;Aguilar et al., 2009).Low confidence: Lack of literature onchanges in CN in other parts of the region.Medium confidence: Increases in frequencyof WN (Alexander et al., 2006; New et al.,2006; Aguilar et al., 2009).Medium confidence: Over time period 1939–1992, spatially non-uniform trends, rise ofnighttime temperature at several locations,but with many coastal areas and stationsnear large water bodies showing asignificant decrease (King’uyu et al., 2000).In southern tip of domain, decreases in CN,increases in WN (Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Decreases in CN,increases in WN (King’uyu et al., 2000;Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Lack of literature. Medium confidence: Increases in WN(Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Lack of literature on trendsin CN.Low confidence: Insufficient evidence(lack of literature). Some analyses forlocalized regions (see regionalassessments).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence(lack of literature) for most of theregion; increases in WSDI in Nigeria andGambia (New et al., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence(lack of literature) for most of region;increase in WSDI in southern tip ofdomain (New et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Increase in WSDI(New et al., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence(lack of literature).Low confidence: Partial lack of data andliterature and inconsistent patterns inexisting studies (New et al., 2006; Aguilaret al., 2009). See also regional assessments.Medium confidence: Precipitation fromheavy events has decreased (westerncentral Africa, Guinea Conakry) but lowspatial coherence (Aguilar et al., 2009),rainfall intensity increased (New et al.,2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence (lackof literature) to assess trends.Low confidence: No spatially coherentpatterns of trends in precipitation extremes(Kruger, 2006; New et al., 2006; Trenberthet al., 2007).Medium confidence: Overall increase indryness (SMA, PDSI); regional variability,1970s prolonged Sahel drought dominates(Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011). Noapparent continent-wide trends in changein rainfall over the 20th century, althoughthere was a continent-wide drought in1983 and 1984 (Hulme et al., 2001). Wetseason arrives 9–21 days later, large interannualvariability of wet season start, localscalegeographical variability (Kniveton etal., 2009).Medium confidence: 1970s prolongedSahel drought dominates, conditions arestill drier (SMA, PDSI, precipitationanomalies) than during the humid 1950s(L'Hôte et al., 2002; Dai et al., 2004;Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011). Dryspell duration (CDD) overall increased from1961 to 2000 (New et al., 2006). Recentyears characterized by a greaterinterannual variability than previous 40years, western Sahel remaining dry and theeastern Sahel returning to wetterconditions (Ali and Lebel, 2009).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends indryness (SMA, PDSI) (Sheffield and Wood,2008a; Dai, 2011).Medium confidence: Slight dry spellduration increase (Alexander et al., 2006;Kruger, 2006; New et al., 2006). Generalincrease in dryness (SMA, PDSI) (Sheffieldand Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Low confidence: Limited data, spatialvariation in the trends (Dai, 2011).Continued next page193
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MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREMEEVENTS
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Managing the Risks of Extreme Event
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ContentsSection IForeword .........
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ForewordForewordThis Special Report
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Prefacein understanding and managin
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Summary for PolicymakersA.ContextTh
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Summary for PolicymakersFigure SPM.
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Summary for Policymakerssettlements
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Summary for PolicymakersC.Disaster
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Summary for Policymakers20103146957
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Summary for Policymakers50201053W.
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Summary for PolicymakersOscillation
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Summary for PolicymakersTable SPM.1
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Summary for Policymakersimportance
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Summary for Policymakers22
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1Climate Change:New Dimensions inDi
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2Determinantsof Risk:Exposure and V
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137in annual extremes (20-year extr
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5Managingthe Risksfrom Climate Extr
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6National Systemsfor Managing the R
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7Managingthe Risks:International Le
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8Towarda Sustainableand Resilient F
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9 Case StudiesCoordinating Lead Aut
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Chapter 9Case Studiesbecause heat-r
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Chapter 9Case StudiesUNESC, 2000: A
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IV Annexes I to IV
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Authors and Expert ReviewersAnnex I
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIAbrupt cli
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIor anthrop
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIFrozen gro
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IIand time s
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Glossary of TermsAnnex IImain track
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AcronymsAnnex IIIAAO Antarctic Osci
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AcronymsAnnex III568
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List of Major IPCC ReportsAnnex IVC
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List of Major IPCC ReportsAnnex IV5
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IndexIndex | KeyTerms defined in th
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IndexDemographic changes, 80, 234-2
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Indexregional impacts, 259vulnerabi
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IndexOcean acidification, 185, 261O
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Indextipping points, 122, 351, 458-
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