IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Determinants of Risk: Exposure and VulnerabilityChapter 2Risk accumulation can be driven by underlying factors such as a declinein the regulatory services provided by ecosystems, inadequate watermanagement, land use changes, rural-urban migration, unplannedurban growth, the expansion of informal settlements in low-lying areas,and an underinvestment in drainage infrastructure. Development andgovernance processes that increase the marginalization of specificgroups, for example, through the reduction of access to health servicesor the exclusion from information and power – to name just a few – canalso severely increase the susceptibility of these groups and at the sametime erode societal response capacities. The classic example is disasterrisk in urban areas in many rapidly growing cities in developing countries(Pelling and Wisner, 2009b). In these areas, disaster risk is often veryunequally distributed, with the poor facing the highest risk, for instancebecause they live in the most hazard-prone parts of the city, often inunplanned dense settlements with a lack of public services; where lackof waste disposal may lead to blocking of drains and increases the riskof disease outbreaks when floods occur; with limited political influenceto ensure government interventions to reduce risk. The accumulation ofdisaster risk over time may be partly caused by a string of smallerdisasters due to continued exposure to small day-to-day risks in urbanareas (e.g., Pelling and Wisner, 2009a), aggravated by limited resourcesto cope and recover from disasters when they occur – creating a viciouscycle of poverty and disaster risk. Analysis of disaster loss data suggeststhat frequent low-intensity losses often highlight an accumulation of risks,which is then realized when an extreme hazard event occurs (UNISDR,2009a). Similar accumulation of risk may occur at larger scales in hazardpronestates, especially in the context of conflict and displacement (e.g.,UNDP, 2004).A context-based understanding of these risks is essential to identifyappropriate risk management strategies. This may include better collectionof sub-national disaster data that allows visualization of complex patternsof local risk (UNDP, 2004), as well as locally owned processes of riskidentification and reduction. Bull-Kamanga et al. (2003) suggest thatone of the most effective methods to address urban disaster risk inAfrica is to support community processes among the most vulnerablegroups so they can identify risks and set priorities – both for communityaction and for action by external agencies (including local governments).Such local risk assessment processes also avoid the pitfalls of planningbased on dated maps used to plan and develop large physical constructionand facilities.Disaster risk is not an autonomous or externally generated circumstanceto which society reacts, adapts, or responds (as is the case with naturalphenomena or events per se), but rather the result of the interaction ofsociety and the natural or built environment. Thus disasters are oftenthe product of parallel developments that sometimes reach a tippingpoint, where the cumulative effect of these parallel processes results indisaster (Dikau and Pohl, 2007; Birkmann, 2011b). After that point,recovery may be slowed by conflict between processes and goals ofreconstruction (Colten et al., 2008). In addition, there is often strongpressure to restore the status quo as soon as possible after a disasterhas happened, even if that status quo means continued high levels ofdisaster risk. Sometimes, however, disasters themselves can be awindow of opportunity for addressing the determinants of disaster risk.With proactive risk assessment and reconstruction planning, moreappropriate solutions can be realized while restoring essential assetsand services during and after disasters (Susman et al., 1983, Renn,1992; Comfort et al., 1999; Vogel and O’Brien, 2004).ReferencesA digital library of non-journal-based literature cited in this chapter thatmay not be readily available to the public has been compiled as part ofthe IPCC review and drafting process, and can be accessed via either theIPCC Secretariat or IPCC Working Group II web sites.Abel, N., D. Cumming, and J. Anderies, 2006: Collapse and reorganization in socialecologicalsystems: Questions, some ideas, and policy implications. Ecology andSociety, 11(1), 17-42.Adam, B. and J. van Loon, 2000: Repositioning risk; the challenge for social theory.In: The Risk Society and Beyond [Adam, B., U. Beck, and J. van Loon (eds.)].SAGE Publications, London, UK, pp. 1-31.Adelekan, I.O., 2010: Vulnerability of poor urban coastal communities to flooding inLagos, Nigeria. Environment and Urbanization, 22, 433, doi:10.1177/0956247810380141.Adger, W.N., 1999: Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastalVietnam. World Development, 27(3), 249-269.Adger, W.N., 2000: Social and ecological resilience: are they related? Progress inHuman Geography, 24(3), 347-364.Adger, W.N., 2003: Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climatechange. Economic Geography, 79(4), 387-404.Adger, W.N., 2006: Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 268-281.Adger, W.N. (ed.), 2009: Adapting to Climate Change, Thresholds, Values,Governance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.Adger, W.N. and N. Brooks, 2003: Does global environmental change causevulnerability to disaster? In: Natural Disasters and Development in aGlobalizing World [Pelling, M. (ed.)]. Routledge, London, UK, pp. 19-42.Adger, W.N., and P.M. Kelly, 1999: Social vulnerability to climate change and thearchitecture of entitlements. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for GlobalChange, 4, 253-266.Adger, W.N., N. Brooks, M. Kelly, S. Bentham, and S. Eriksen, 2004: New Indicators ofVulnerability and Adaptive Capacity. Tyndall Centre for Climate ChangeResearch, Technical Report 7, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.Adger, W.N., N.W. Arnell, and E.L. Tompkins, 2005: Successful adaptation to climatechange across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15(2), 77-86.Afifi, T., 2011: Economic or environmental migration? The push factors in Niger.International Migration, 49(S1), e95-e124.Agrawala, S. and M.K. van Aalst, 2008: Adapting development co-operation toadapt to climate change. Climate Policy, 8, 183-193.Ahern, M., R.S. Kovats, P. Wilkinson, R. Few, and F. Matthies, 2005: Global healthimpacts of floods: epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiologic Reviews, 27,doi:10.1093/epirev/mxi004.Alexander, D.E., 1993: Natural Disasters, UCL Press Limited, London, UK.Alexander, D.E., 2000: Confronting Catastrophe. Terra Publishing, Harpenden, UK.Altman, I. and S. Low, 1992: Place Attachment. Plenum Press, New York, NY.Alwang, J., P.B. Siegel, and S.L. Jorgensen, 2001: Vulnerability: A View From DifferentDisciplines. Social Protection Discussion Paper Series, No. 115, World Bank,Washington, DC.96