IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Chapter 2Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerabilitysocioeconomic data at the lowest levels of aggregation) but also thehighly complex and dynamic interplay between the capacities of thecommunities (and the way they are distributed among communitymembers, including their power relationships) and the challenges theyface (including both persistent and acute aspects of vulnerability).To inform risk management, it is desirable that risk assessments arelocally based and result in increased awareness and a sense of localownership of the process and the options that may be employed toaddress the risks. Several participatory risk assessment methods, oftenbased on participatory rural appraisal methods, have been adjusted toexplicitly address changing risks in a changing climate. Examples ofguidance on how to assess climate vulnerability at the community levelare available from several sources (see Willows and Connell, 2003;Moench and Dixit, 2007; van Aalst et al., 2007; CARE, 2009; IISD et al.,2009; Tearfund, 2009). In integrating climate change, a balance needs tobe struck between the desire for a sophisticated assessment that includeshigh-quality scientific inputs and rigorous analysis of the participatoryfindings, and the need to keep the process simple, participatory, andimplementable at scale. Chapter 5 provides further details on theimplementation of risk management at local levels.The International Standards Organization defines risk assessment as aprocess to comprehend the nature of risk and to determine the level ofrisk (ISO, 2009a,b). Additionally, communication within risk assessmentand management are seen as key elements of the process (Renn, 2008).More specifically, vulnerability and risk assessment deal with theidentification of different facets and factors of vulnerability and risk, bymeans of gathering and systematizing data and information, in order tobe able to identify and evaluate different levels of vulnerability and riskof societies – social groups and infrastructures – or coupled socioecologicalsystems at risk. A common goal of vulnerability and riskassessment approaches is to provide information about profiles, patternsof, and changes in risk and vulnerability (see, e.g., IDEA, 2005; Birkmann,2006a; Cardona, 2008; IFRC, 2008), in order to define priorities, selectalternative strategies, or formulate new response strategies. In thiscontext, the Hyogo Framework for Action stresses “that the startingpoint for reducing disaster risk and for promoting a culture of disasterresilience lies in the knowledge of the hazards and the physical, social,economic, and environmental vulnerabilities to disasters that mostsocieties face, and of the ways in which hazards and vulnerabilities arechanging in the short and long term, followed by action taken on thebasis of that knowledge” (UN, 2005).Vulnerability and risk assessments are key strategic activities thatinform both disaster risk management and climate change adaptation.These require the use of reliable methodologies that allow an adequateestimation and quantification of potential losses and consequences tothe human systems in a given exposure time.Risk estimates are thus intended to be prospective, anticipatingscientifically possible hazard events that may occur in the future.Usually technical risk analyses have been associated with probabilities.Taking into account epistemic and aleatory uncertainties the probabilisticestimations of risk attempt to forecast damage or losses even whereinsufficient data are available on the hazards and the system beinganalyzed (UNDRO, 1980; Fournier d’Albe, 1985; Spence and Coburn,1987; Blockley, 1992; Coburn and Spence, 1992; Sheldon and Golding,1992; Woo, 1999; Grossi and Kunreuther, 2005; Cardona et al., 2008a,b;Cardona 2011). In most cases, approaches and criteria for simplificationand for aggregation of different information types and sources are used,due to a lack of data or the inherent low resolution of the information. Thiscan result in some scientific or technical and econometric characteristics,accuracy, and completeness that are desirable features when the riskevaluation is the goal of the process (Cardona et al., 2003b). Measuressuch as loss exceedance curves and probable maximum loss for differentevent return periods are of particular importance for the stratification ofrisk and the design of disaster risk intervention strategy considering riskreduction, prevention, and transfer (Woo, 1999; Grossi and Kunreuther,2005; Cardona et al., 2008a,b; ERN-AL, 2011; UNISDR, 2011). However,it is also evident that more qualitative-oriented risk assessmentapproaches are focusing on deterministic approaches and the profilingof vulnerability using participatory methodologies (Garret, 1999).Vulnerability and risk indicators or indices are feasible techniques forrisk monitoring and may take into account both the harder aspects ofrisk as well as its softer aspects. The usefulness of indicators dependson how they are employed to make decisions on risk managementobjectives and goals (Cardona et al., 2003a; IDEA, 2005; Cardona, 2006,2008, 2010; Carreño et al., 2007b).However, quantitative approaches for assessing vulnerability need to becomplemented with qualitative approaches to capture the full complexityand the various tangible and intangible aspects of vulnerability in itsdifferent dimensions. It is important to recognize that complex systemsinvolve multiple variables (physical, social, cultural, economic, andenvironmental) that cannot be measured using the same methodology.Physical or material reality have a harder topology that allows the useof quantitative measure, while collective and historical reality have asofter topology in which the majority of the attributes are described inqualitative terms (Munda, 2000). These aspects indicate that a weighingor measurement of risk involves the integration of diverse disciplinaryperspectives. An integrated and interdisciplinary focus can moreconsistently take into account the nonlinear relations of the parameters,the context, complexity, and dynamics of social and environmental systems,and contribute to more effective risk management by the differentstakeholders involved in risk reduction or adaptation decisionmaking.Results can be verified and risk management/adaptation priorities canbe established (Carreño et al., 2007a, 2009).To ensure that risk and vulnerability assessments are also understood,the key challenges for future vulnerability and risk assessments, in thecontext of climate change, are, in particular, the promotion of moreintegrative and holistic approaches; the improvement of assessmentmethodologies that also account for dynamic changes in vulnerability,exposure, and risk; and the need to address the requirements of91