IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Determinants of Risk: Exposure and VulnerabilityChapter 2The first three actions are mainly ex ante – that is, they take place inadvance of disaster – and the fourth refers mainly to ex post actions,although preparedness and early warning do require ex ante planning(Cardona, 2004; IDB, 2007). Risk identification, through vulnerability andrisk assessment can produce common understanding by the stakeholdersand actors. It is the first step for risk reduction, prevention, and transfer,as well as climate adaptation in the context of extremes.2.6.1. Risk IdentificationUnderstanding risk factors and communicating risks due to climatechange to decisionmakers and the general public are key challenges.These challenges include developing an improved understanding ofunderlying vulnerabilities, and societal coping and response capacities.There is high confidence that the selection of appropriate vulnerabilityand risk evaluation approaches depends on the decisionmaking context.The promotion of a higher level of risk awareness regarding climatechange-induced hazards and changes requires an improved understandingof the specific risk perceptions of different social groups and individuals,including those factors that influence and determine these perceptions,such as beliefs, values, and norms. This also requires attention forappropriate formats of communication that characterize uncertaintyand complexity (see, e.g., Patt et al., 2005; Bohle and Glade, 2008; Renn,2008, pp. 289; Birkmann et al., 2009; ICSU-LAC, 2011a,b, p. 15).Appropriate information and knowledge are essential prerequisites forrisk-aware behavior and decisions. Specific information and knowledgeon the dynamic interactions of exposed and vulnerable elementsinclude livelihoods and critical infrastructures, and potentially damagingevents, such as extreme weather events or potential irreversiblechanges such as sea level rise. Based on the expertise of disaster riskresearch and findings in the climate change and climate changeadaptation community, requirements for risk understanding related toclimate change and extreme events particularly encompass knowledgeof various elements (Kasperson et al., 2005; Patt et al., 2005; Renn andGraham, 2006; Biermann, 2007; Füssel, 2007; Bohle and Glade, 2008;Cutter and Finch, 2008; Renn, 2008; Biermann et al., 2009, Birkmann etal., 2009, 2010b; Cardona, 2010; Birkmann, 2011a; ICSU-LAC, 2011a,b),including:• Processes by which persons, property, infrastructure, goods, andthe environment itself are exposed to potentially damaging events,for example, understanding exposure in its spatial and temporaldimensions.• Factors and processes that determine or contribute to thevulnerability of persons and their livelihoods or of socio-ecologicalsystems. This includes an understanding of increases or decreasesin susceptibility and response capacity, including the distribution ofsocio- and economic resources that make people more vulnerableor that increase their level of resilience.• How climate change affects hazards, particularly regardingprocesses by which human activities in the natural environment orchanges in socio-ecological systems lead to the creation of newhazards (e.g., NaTech hazards), irreversible changes, or increasingprobabilities of hazard events occurrence.• Different tools, methodologies, and sources of knowledge (e.g.,expert/scientific knowledge, local or indigenous knowledge) thatallow capturing new hazards, risk, and vulnerability profiles, as wellas risk perceptions. In this context, new tools and methodologiesare also needed that allow for the evaluation, for example, of newrisks (sea level rise) and of current adaptation strategies.• How risks and vulnerabilities can be modified and reconfiguredthrough forms of governance, particularly risk governance –encompassing formal and informal rule systems and actornetworks at various levels. Furthermore, it is essential to improveknowledge on how to promote adaptive governance within theframework of risk assessment and risk management.• Adaptive capacity status and limits of adaptation. This includes theneed to assess potential capacities for future hazards and fordealing with uncertainty. Additionally, more knowledge is neededon the various and socially differentiated limits of adaptation.These issues also imply an improved understanding on how differentadaptation measures influence resilience and adaptive capacities.2.6.2. Vulnerability and Risk AssessmentThe development of modern risk analysis and assessments were closelylinked to the establishment of scientific methodologies for identifyingcausal links between adverse health effects and different types ofhazardous events and the mathematical theories of probability (Covelloand Mumpower, 1985). Today, risk and vulnerability assessmentsencompass a broad and multidisciplinary research field. In this regard,vulnerability and risk assessments can have different functions andgoals.Risk and vulnerability assessment depend on the underlyingunderstanding of the terms. In this context, two main schools ofthought can be differentiated. The first school of thought defines riskas a decision by an individual or a group to act in such a way that theoutcome of these decisions can be harmful (Luhmann, 2003; Dikau andPohl, 2007). In contrast, the disaster risk research community views riskas the product of the interaction of a potentially damaging event andthe vulnerable conditions of a society or element exposed (UNISDR,2004; IPCC, 2007).Vulnerability and risk assessment encompass various approaches andtechniques ranging from indicator-based global or national assessmentsto qualitative participatory approaches of vulnerability and risk assessmentat the local level. They serve different functions and goals (see IDEA,2005; Birkmann, 2006a; Cardona, 2006; Dilley, 2006; Wisner, 2006a;IFRC, 2008; Peduzzi et al., 2009).Risk assessment at the local level presents specific challenges related toa lack of data (including climate data at sufficient resolution, but also90