IPCC Report.pdf - Adam Curry

Determinants of Risk: Exposure and VulnerabilityChapter 2also influence the transport sector (through reduction in ice cover);increase numbers of pollution events (through increased maritimetransport of oil and other goods); may risk ecological and other damagesas a result of competition from introduced species in ballast water;which, in turn, are aggravated by increases in ocean temperatures.Neither the potential level of impact nor the processes of adaptation arebest represented by a singular focus on a particular sector but mustconsider interactions between sectors and institutional, economic,social, and cultural conditions (O’Brien et al., 2006).2.5.4.1. Intersectionality and Other DimensionsThe dimensions discussed above generate differential effects but it isimportant to consider not just differences between single categories(e.g., between women and men) but the differences within a givencategory (e.g., ‘women’). This refers to intersectionality, where, forexample, gender may be a significant variable but only when allied withrace/ethnicity or some other variable. In Hurricane Katrina, it mattered(it still matters) whether you were black or white, upper class or workingclass, home owner or renter, old or young, woman or man in termsof relative exposure and vulnerability factors (Cutter et al., 2006; Elliottand Pais, 2006).Certain factors are identified as cross-cutting themes of particularimportance for understanding the dynamic changes within exposure,vulnerability, and risk. In the Sphere Project’s minimum standards inhumanitarian response, children, older people, persons with disabilities,gender, psychosocial issues, HIV and AIDS, and environment, climatechange, and disaster risk reduction are identified as cross-cuttingthemes and must be considered, not as separate sectors, which peoplemay or may not select for attention, but must be integrated within eachsector (Sphere Project, 2011). Exactly which topics are selected as crosscuttingthemes, to be incorporated throughout an activity, is contextspecific.Below, we consider just two: different timing (diachronicaspects within a single day or across longer time periods) and differentspatial and functional scales.2.5.4.2. Timing, Spatial, and Functional ScalesCross-cutting themes of particular importance for understanding thedynamic changes within exposure, vulnerability, and risk are differenttiming (diachronic aspects within a single day or across longer timeperiods) and different spatial and functional scales.2.5.4.2.1. Timing and timescalesTiming and timescales are important cross-cutting themes that needmore attention when dealing with the identification and managementof extreme climate and weather events, disasters, and adaptationstrategies. The first key issue when dealing with timing and timescalesis the fact that different hazards and their recurrence intervals mightfundamentally change in terms of the time dimension. This implies thatthe identification and assessment of risk, exposure, and vulnerabilityneeds also to deal with different time scales and in some cases mightneed to consider different time scales. At present most of the climatechange scenarios focus on climatic change within the next 100 or200 years, while often the projections of vulnerability just use presentsocioeconomic data. However, a key challenge for enhancing knowledgeof exposure and vulnerability as key determinants of risk requiresimproved data and methods to project and identify directions anddifferent development pathways in demographic, socioeconomic, andpolitical trends that can adequately illustrate potential increases ordecreases in vulnerability with the same time horizon as the changes inthe climate system related to physical-biogeochemical projections (seeBirkmann et al., 2010b).Furthermore, the time dependency of risk analysis, particularly if theanalysis is conducted at a specific point in time, has been shown to becritical. Newer research underlines that exposure – especially theexposure of different social groups – is a highly dynamic element thatchanges not only seasonally, but also during the day and over differentdays of the week (e.g., Setiadi, 2011). Disasters also exacerbate predisastertrends in vulnerability (Colten et al., 2008).Consequently, time scales and dynamic changes over time have to beconsidered carefully when conducting risk and vulnerability assessmentsfor extreme events and creeping changes in the context of climate change.Additionally, changes in the hazard frequency and timing of hazardoccurrence during the year will have a strong impact on the ability ofsocieties and ecosystems to cope and adapt to these changes.The timing of events may also create ‘windows of vulnerability,’ periods inwhich the hazards are greater because of the conjunction of circumstances(Dow, 1992). Time is a cross-cutting dimension that always needs to beconsidered but particularly so in the case of anthropogenic climate change,which may be projected some years into the future (Füssel, 2005). Infact, this time dimension is regarded (Thomalla et al., 2006) as a keydifference between the disaster management and climate changecommunities. To generalize somewhat, the former group typically(with obvious exceptions like slow-onset hazards such as drought ordesertification) deals with fast-onset events, in discrete, even if extensive,locations, requiring immediate action. The latter group typically focuses onconditions that occur in a dispersed form over lengthy time periods andwhich are much more challenging in their identification and measurement(Thomalla et al., 2006). Risk perception may be reduced (Leiserowitz,2006) for such events remote in time and/or space, such as some climatechange impacts are perceived to be. Thus, in this conceptualization,different time scales are an important constraint when dealing with thelink between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (seeThomalla et al., 2006; Birkmann and von Teichman, 2010).However, it is important to also acknowledge that disaster risk reductionconsiders risk reduction within different time frames; it encompasses88