r - part - usaid

southeast: an area 02 scra5um 7% lies to the
southwest. This data is indicative only, and it is
not predicted tkaZ precisely 3,760 people will be
found in the 16 sg.b. area around Tur Demerre. The
data is helpful in giving a profile af the site, ar.d
the density of the populations surrounding it.
Finall]-, some indication of the movement of animals
and pe~pXe czn be gained between the dry season and
the w et season, The aninax eovement patterns are, in
fact, quite can?lex iz the regiar, but the total
estimated increase i~ water demanci during the dry
season is shown in Figure 2.2-11. k broad evacuation
takes place throughout the region: figures in brackets
denote reduced deaand- The zrea represented by "*"
denotes reduced denand in excess of 99 cubic meters
per day. Only the belt in the rrorthwest sector,
running from. northeast to sosthwest, shows a
significant increase in demand. This is the area in
which sost of the project wells have been constructed.
Closer examination is obviously required to determine
+
&hz availability of grazing areas throughout the
reqian dcring the dry season, and to what extent
access Lo zhese areas is restricted by Lhe lack of
water.
Becasse the resoxrzes of h e Planning U~it were
limited, only data fcr t Bay Region has been
entered, but the system serves as a ~udel for covering
F
the whole cf Sanalia, L Q xhich ~ statistical data is
zvailable- Tn fact, assista=~e bas been qiven to
C-N.I.C.Z.P. staff, who, xsing this model, are
setzing up 5ata for the Northeast of Sonafia, and
possibly far the whole country.
1. L, Ec~noak analysis.
X set a5 conputerized costing models has been
deve2cped to dezen:.,ine the cost of well construction,
operation, and maintenance, These models are
>resented in, and fohn the basks of, Section 4.0 of
this vo;uxe of tke report. The madefs incorporate
over three hzndred variables, and show the detailed
crst of a well cmstruction program, the foreign
exchange an5 local currency components of tatal cost,
the nanpower, and the vehicle axd eq-itipment budgets
Ear the pr~pcsed progran. The model can be
xanipul&ted to reflect tke costs and resource
reguire~ezts for a prograx arywhere in Somalia.