Temperature Profiles for an Optimized Water Vapor Canopy.indd

2 L. Vardimancomplete treatment of the water vapor canopy in, TheWaters Above. He gathered supporting documentationfor a vapor canopy not only from Scripture, but alsofrom archeology, mythology, and science. He began thefirst serious attempt at developing a numerical modelof the vapor canopy. Dillow was able to maintain alivable surface temperature under a massive watervapor canopy by assuming a high albedo at the top ofthe canopy which reflected most of the incident solarradiation, a large infrared emission coefficient whichallowed a large amount of heat to escape back to space,and a large flux of heat from the atmosphere to theocean and transfer to the poles. These assumptionswere based on extensions of theoretical considerationsby Kondratyev (1965, 1969) but are not supported byobservation or current atmospheric modeling.Rush (1990) extended Dillow’s efforts by usinga widely accepted radiation code to model thetemperature profiles under a two-layer atmosphere,the upper layer of which was pure water vapor.Details of the model and the results of the simulationsmay be found in Rush and Rush & Vardiman (1990).Canopies ranging in size from 10 to 1013 mb of watervapor (that is, 10 cm to 1013 cm of precipitable water)were found to produce temperatures in radiationalequilibrium at the canopy base hot enough tomaintain water in the vapor phase. Unfortunately,except for the 10 mb (10 cm of precipitable water)canopy, all modeled canopies produced inhospitablyhigh surface temperatures. It was suggested thatthe addition of cirrus clouds at the top of the canopywhere supersaturated vapor conditions had beennoted in the model might help reduce the extremelyhigh temperatures found at the surface.In Vardiman (1998) the solar constant, surfacealbedo, solar zenith angle, cirrus cloud thickness,and cirrus cloud-base height were varied and theeffect on vertical temperature distributions studied.It was found that changes in the solar constantmost strongly affected the surface temperature. Theaddition of a 4 km thick cirrus layer at the top of thevapor canopy produced a completely isothermal layerfrom the bottom of the cirrus layer to the ground. Thishelped to reduce greatly the surface temperature butnone of the effects were so dramatic as to eliminatethe concern over limitations of water content in thecanopy on hot surface temperatures. It was suggestedthat optimum values of all five parameters should beintroduced into the same 10 mb (10 cm of precipitablewater) model simultaneously to minimize the surfacetemperature. This paper reports on the results ofconducting such a study.The one-dimensional model by Rush & Vardiman(1990) is used here to calculate the equilibriumvertical temperature profiles which result fromheating by solar and infrared radiation at each of 20or more layers in a two-component atmosphere. Theheating was tabulated from radiance calculationsusing the atmospheric radiance and transmissionprogram LOWTRAN 7 developed by the U.S. AirForce (Kneizyset al. (1988). The two-componentatmosphere was structured with an upper layer ofpure water vapor containing approximately 10 cmof precipitable water resting hydrostatically on alower layer of dry air identical to today’s atmosphere.The initial vertical temperature distribution wasisothermal at 170 K. Since this is a one-dimensionalradiation model, no heat is transported by conductionor convection or north and south. The solar constant,the solar zenith angle, the surface albedo, and cloudgeometries and properties could all be varied.Optimizing the CanopyIn Vardiman (1998) surface temperature andlower atmospheric layer temperatures were shownas a function of five variables: (a) solar constant, (b)solar zenith angle, (c) surface albedo, (d) cirrus cloudthickness, and (e) cirrus cloud base height. Surfacetemperature decreased strongly for lower values ofthe solar constant. It was varied from 50% to 150%of today’s value and exhibited the strongest effect onsurface temperature of all the variables.Surface temperature decreased moderately forlarger values of the solar zenith angle. The solarzenith angle can be thought of as the angle the sun’srays make relative to the local zenith (vertical) at thetime of the year of the vernal or autumnal equinox(when the sun stands directly over the equator). Asolar zenith angle of 15° represents a latitude of 15°,or the tropics. A solar zenith angle of 75° representsa latitude of 75°, or the polar regions. So, as wouldbe expected, solar heating is the least in the polarregions and greatest in the tropics.Surface temperature decreased weakly forlarger values of surface albedo. The surfacealbedo is the fraction of short-wave solar radiationwhich is reflected by the earth’s surface. Since theequilibrium temperatures in the earth-atmospheresystem are dominated by infrared radiation undercanopy conditions, even large changes in the surfacealbedo have a relatively small effect on surfacetemperature.It is generally accepted today, although just theopposite is sometimes reported, that low cloudsproduce surface warming and high clouds producesurface cooling (Ramanathan & Collins, 1991). In thissimulation surface temperature decreased weakly forlarger values of cirrus cloud base height. Within theheight constraints of the model, surface temperaturereached a minimum for a cirrus cloud-base height of50 km.Surface temperature decreased moderately for

Temperature Profiles for an Optimized Water Vapor Canopy3larger values of cirrus cloud thickness. The thicker thecirrus clouds the greater the absorption and scatteringof radiation, either solar or infrared. At 4 km thicknessthe cirrus cloud produced isothermal conditionsbetween the cloud base and the earth’s surface. Thisis important for reducing the minimum equilibriumsurface temperature, because with no layer aloft ora thin layer, the temperature distribution near thesurface exhibited a “foot” of high temperatures atthe ground. The 4 km thick cirrus cloud creates anabsorbing layer. Under such conditions convectivemotions will not occur and conduction and radiationtransfer will bring the lower atmosphere to anisothermal state, in accordance with Sandstrom’stheorem discussed in Houghton (1986).In an attempt to minimize the temperatures at theearth’s surface, the optimum values of the variablesabove were studied. Cirrus cloud thickness was setat 4 km. Cirrus cloud-base height was set at 50 km.Surface albedo was set at 30%. The solar zenith anglewas set at the two extreme values of 15° and 75°. Thiswas done to simulate polar and equatorial conditionssince both are present in the atmosphere at the sametime. This polar condition will actually constrain thepotential precipitation of oxygen, nitrogen, and othergases from the atmosphere. If polar temperaturesfall below the boiling point of a gas (for example,90 K for oxygen) the gas will form liquid dropletsand precipitate out of the atmosphere. Knowing bothpolar and equatorial temperature distributions willalso allow pole-to-equator temperature gradients tobe estimated and, consequently, pressure gradientsand wind fields. The solar constant was varied from1% to 100% of today’s value.Twelve different model runs are reported here, sixat a solar zenith angle of 15° representing conditionsin the tropics and six at 75° representing the polarregions. The equilibrium temperature distributionsin the atmosphere will be displayed by altitude andas a function of the solar constant, the independentvariable.ResultsFigures 1 and 2 show the change in the verticaldistribution of temperature with time for a solarconstant of 1% of today’s value in the polar regionsand 100% of today’s value in the tropics, respectively.These conditions are the extremes modeled in thispaper. The initial distribution of temperature in theatmosphere is set at a constant 170 K with height inall simulations. This is done to follow the procedurefirst introduced in this type of modeling by Manabe& Strickler (1964) and to avoid the possibility thatdifferent initial values would influence the finalresult. Time is shown in days after the simulation isbegun. Radiational equilibrium is reached when theHeight (km)80604020640 320160 80 40 20 10 01280050 100 150 200Temperature (K)Figure 1. The vertical distribution of temperature for 1%of today’s solar constant in the polar regions. Each curveis for the time in days after the start of the simulation.vertical temperature distribution stops changing withtime. Note, that equilibrium was not reached in thesimulation of Figure 1, but was reached in all others.For a solar constant of 1% in the polar regions, shownin Figure 1, the amount of solar radiation entering theatmosphere is not sufficient to compensate for the lossto space by infrared radiation. The entire atmospherecools from its initial isothermal 170 K. It cools morestrongly in the upper atmosphere as shown by thebending to cold temperatures near the top of the plot.However, the entire atmosphere cools and contractswith time, approaching absolute zero. It will not reachabsolute zero, but the simulation shows that sufficientcooling occurs that all the water vapor in the canopywill be turned to ice and fall out as snow.In addition, as the temperature falls below 90 K,the condensation point for oxygen is reached, so eventhe oxygen in the atmosphere will turn to a liquidand precipitate out. The boiling point for nitrogen is77 K, so if the temperature continues to cool, even thenitrogen in the atmosphere will turn to a liquid. Atcolder temperatures oxygen and nitrogen may eventurn to a solid.Height (km)8060402040201001608064032012800100 150 200 250 300 350 400Temperature (K)Figure 2. The vertical distribution of temperature for100% of today’s solar constant in the tropics. Each curveis for the time in days after the start of the simulation.

4 L. VardimanThis model does not account for heat flowing fromthe equator to polar regions. This heat flow polewardin the atmosphere and oceans is what causes the globalcirculation and eddies which we know as weather. Wewill discuss below why these weather patterns mayhave been weakened under a canopy. This model alsodoes not consider dynamic changes in the total gaseousconcentration on radiation. All gas concentrations areinitially set at a fixed value. The gases are allowedto expand and contract as the temperature changes.The contraction of the atmosphere at the poles withtime can be seen in the temperature distributions.Asthe atmosphere cools, the heights of the data points,which are shown at constant pressure levels, decrease.This contraction is due to cooling, not the removal ofmass. The model treats radiation effects only. If thewater vapor was removed from the canopy in themodel, the cooling would be even greater. For a solarconstant of 100% at the equator shown in Figure 2,the atmosphere rapidly warms from the isothermal170 K to an equilibrium temperature distribution ofapproximately 400 K at the surface and isothermal tothe base of the cirrus cloud deck above. The surfacetemperature is hotter than the boiling point of water,making life as we know it on earth, impossible.The expansion of the atmosphere at the equatorwith time can also be seen here in the temperaturedistributions. As the atmosphere warms, the heightsof the data points increase. This expansion is due towarming, not the addition of mass. In the real world,if the atmosphere were warmed, water vapor wouldbe evaporated from the oceans and the temperaturewould become even greater. This would be similarto the extreme surface temperatures in the carbondioxide atmosphere of Venus which has been giventhe name, “The Runaway Greenhouse.”Figures 3 and 4 show the equilibrium temperaturedistributions in the polar regions and at the equator,respectively, as a function of the percentage of the solarconstant. Note first, that the depth of the atmosphereand the equilibrium temperatures are directlyproportional to the magnitude of the solar constant.Even with all the complexity of the absorption,scattering, and re-emission of the radiation in theatmosphere, the final equilibrium temperature is afairly simple function of the amount of energy enteringthe system.Second, for the same percentage of solar constant thetemperature distribution at all levels in the atmosphereis colder in the polar regions than at the equator. Infact, the relative temperature differential betweenthe poles and equator is similar to that of today. Thisis somewhat of a surprise, since Dillow (1981), Rush(1990), and Rush & Vardiman (1990) had anticipatedthe temperatures would be more uniform from poleto equator than today. This is significant becauseHeight (km)807060504030201050201051100050 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Temperature (K)Figure 3. Equilibrium temperature distributions in thepolar regions as a percentage of today’s solar constant.the pole-to-equator temperature differential is whatdrives the general circulation of the atmosphere and,in particular, the jet stream which circles the globe inboth hemispheres. This means that the intensity ofthe global circulation was probably about the same asthat of today. The jet stream probably had about thesame velocity and barotropic instability as today. Abarotropic instability is the tendency to form eddies inthe west-to-east flow patterns because of strong windshear at mid-latitudes. Baroclinic instabilities (thosecaused by temperature gradients) were probably alsoweaker because of increased convective stability, to bediscussed below.Third, for all simulations, particularly at highvalues of solar constant and at the equator, thevertical temperature distribution is isothermal inthe lower atmosphere. This means that vertical airmotions are suppressed. It is unlikely that convectionwill occur and precipitation would be eliminated orgreatly reduced. Baroclinic instabilities would also beweaker because of little or no release of latent heat atfrontal boundaries. The net result of a similar pole-Height (km)8070605040302010201015010030050 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Temperature (K)Figure 4. Equilibrium temperature distributions in thetropics as a percentage of today’s solar constant.

Temperature Profiles for an Optimized Water Vapor Canopy5to-equator temperature gradient with much greatervertical stability would probably be a world with muchless precipitation and fewer clouds. The RichardsonNumber, a measure of dynamic instability wouldbe much less (see Hess, 1959, p. 290). Rossby waveswould probably be weaker (see Hess, pp. 253–256).Jetstream patterns with associated clouds, if any,might be more similar to those on Venus and Saturn.Clouds would probably girdle the earth as morecontinuous circular bands and exhibit fewer wavesand eddies. This implies that less heat would probablybe transported from the equator to the poles thantoday, and pole-to-equator temperature gradientsmight be even greater.Fourth, under a vapor canopy containing 10 cmof precipitable water the solar constant must liesomewhere between 1% and 100% of today’s value forthe mass of the atmosphere to remain in equilibrium.At 1% of today’s solar constant all of the watervapor and maybe even a part of the oxygen wouldprecipitate out at the poles. At 100% the oceans wouldevaporate in the tropics. This doesn’t happen todaybecause the solar constant is high enough to preventexcessive cooling at the poles and there is relativelylittle water vapor in the atmosphere to produce suchhigh temperatures in the tropics. It appears that thesolar constant needed to balance these two extremesis about 25% of today’s value. At 25% the surfacetemperature at the poles stays above the boiling pointfor oxygen and the surface temperature at the equatorstays below the boiling point for water.DiscussionThe earth’s atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphericsystems are like a very complex still—an apparatusfor distilling liquids. The sun is the heat source, thetropics is the firebox, and the polar regions are thecondensers. Solar radiation is converted to sensible andlatent heat in the tropics, transported by the generalcirculation to the poles, and emitted to space. Waterplays a major role in this process because of its uniquecapacity to hold large quantities of heat in its variousstates and to absorb and release this heat during phasechanges. In addition, water in vapor form modulatesthe radiational properties of the atmosphere in majorways through its greenhouse properties.If, in addition to an initial vertical distribution ofwater vapor in the atmosphere, the solar constanthas varied in the past, it might be possible to discovervarious states in which this “atmospheric still”operates. It appears that we have now discovered someboundaries conditions which constrain a vapor canopyand lead to estimated conditions under which it couldfunction if, in fact, it existed. These conditions appearto require the magnitude of the solar constant tohave varied in the past. It will be necessary to extendthese studies to explore thicker canopies again as wasoriginally done by Dillow (1981) and Rush (1990),however, these studies are beyond the scope of thispaper. In the meantime, it is instructive to discuss theimplications of a changed solar constant.Why would the solar constant have been lower priorto the Flood? There are four possible sets of conditionswhich could have caused a lower effective solarconstant: (1) the sun’s output was less, (2) the distancefrom the sun to the earth was greater, (3) some of theradiation from the sun was captured en route to theearth, or (4) a greater percentage of the solar radiationwas reflected from the top of the atmosphere.1. Reduced Solar OutputEven to suggest that the sun’s output has beensignificantly different during past historical timeseems to be unimaginable to most people. However,both biblical and scientific evidence lends supportto such an idea. The view that the sun has alwaysbeen the same brightness falls into the category ofuniformitarianism, except for one supposed longperiodtrend early in the old earth system. The “faintyoung sun paradox” seems to be one exception to thebelief that the present is the key to the past. But, Joshua10:12–14 speaks of the sun standing still for an entireday so that the Children of Israel could prevail overthe Amorites. Although this incident doesn’t involvethe darkening of the sun, which is harder for God todo, make the sun stand still or reduce its output?Exodus 10:21–27 says that during the ninth plagueon Egypt the sun was darkened for three days. Thiswas not a slight dimming, but a complete darknesswhich could be felt. Luke 23:44–45 speaks of theSun being darkened for three hours during the timeof Christ’s crucifixion. It may be that God causedclouds or the moon to cover the sun, but the moststraightforward interpretation of this passage is thatthe sun’s radiation was reduced or stopped.Evidence continues to mount that at some time inearth’s history increased concentrations of oxygen andcarbon dioxide were present in the earth’s atmosphere(Graham, Dudley, Aguilar, & Gans, 1995, pp. 117–120).Carbon dioxide is almost as effective a greenhouse gasas water vapor, so if such high concentrations existed,similar simulations as conducted in this paper wouldrequire the solar output to also be reduced to avoidextreme surface temperatures. Nuclear models of theSun call for it to have had a reduced intensity earlyin its life (Sagan & Chyba, 1997, pp. 1217–1219). Ofcourse, early in its life means millions or even billionsof years ago according to the conventional scientificcommunity, but if nuclear processes were slower inthe past and then accelerated, as some now suggest(Humphreys, 2000), then reduced solar output couldhave been present as well.

6 L. VardimanOne associated effect of a reduced solar constantwhich might be of interest to young earth creationistsand experts in radiocarbon dating, would be thereduction in 14 C and the effect on radiocarbon dating.If the solar constant in the early history of the earthwere 25% of today’s value, the production rate of 14 Cwould be 25% of today’s value as well, significantlyreducing the estimated age of buried organics. Forexample, if the equilibrium concentration of 14 C inthe atmosphere was 25% of that of today, assumingnothing else changed, the estimated age of a bone orother once living organism would need to be reducedby about 11,500 years.The RATE project, a group of young-earthcreationists exploring the possibility that acceleratednuclear decay in earth’s early history could explainthe evidence for large quantities of nuclear daughterproducts (Vardiman, 2000; Vardiman et al., in press),has begun to collect evidence that nuclear processeswere, in fact, accelerated for periods of time in thehistorical past. This acceleration of nuclear processesdoesn’t appear to be limited to events on the earth,but may have been caused by cosmological effectswhich are universal in their extent. Such causeswould likely have produced many changes, includingprocess rates in the sun. D. R. Humphreys, (2001) in apersonal communication suggests that these changeswould be consistent with a greater solar intensityduring these periods.2. Greater Distance from the SunHumphreys (2001) has also suggested that thesame cosmological effects could possibly have affectedgravity. If, for example, the gravitational constant werehalved, the orbit of the earth around the sun would betwice as large as before and the solar constant wouldbe one fourth as much. In other words, the solarconstant would have been 25% of today’s value beforesuch a change in the cosmological constants. Thesehypotheses must be explored further before anysignificance should be placed on these conjectures,but at least the possibilities are consistent.3. Solar Radiation Captured en route to EarthSuggestions have been made that early in earth’shistory a greater concentration of dust was present inintergalactic and interplanetary space (Zeilik, 1988,pp. 327–348). Depending upon the amount and sizedistribution of the dust particles present, a portion ofthe solar radiation coming to earth could have beencaptured and reradiated in all directions. A significantpercentage of the solar radiation could have beenprevented from reaching earth. If this dust was thenremoved, either slowly or in some catastrophic event,the percentage of solar radiation reaching the earthwould have increased.The mechanism by which the dust was removedcould have been by simple planetary sweeping ofthe dust; removal by the Poynting-Robertson Effect,in which solar radiation produces a net force onthe particles; or by movement of our solar systeminto a clear region of our galaxy. Of course, theseconsiderations are normally suggested within anold universe, uniformitarian model of the origin ofthe solar system. Most of these considerations wouldnot apply in a young universe, creationist frameworkunless there was some large scale, catastrophicprocess. We don’t propose such a mechanism here.4. Reflection from the Top of the AtmosphereIn the upper layers of the atmosphere thetemperature is colder than 0 °C and water vapor canfreeze and form ice crystals. It is not sufficient thatthe temperature just be colder than 0 °C, however.The vapor pressure must exceed the saturation vaporpressure, as well. If pure water vapor existed in theupper atmosphere, these conditions would be met,according to the modeling studies done by Rush (1990).When this condition was discovered he at first fearedthat any ice crystals formed would precipitate entirelythrough the vapor canopy to the base of the canopyand fall out of the canopy as rain, slowly depletingthe water mass. However, upon closer investigation,it was found that below the upper layer of ice crystals,the canopy was not saturated, so that ice crystalsfalling from above would sublimate and replenishthe upper canopy with vapor. The sublimating icecrystals below the cirrus layers cause this portion ofthe canopy to expand as the molecules change statefrom a solid to a gas. The water vapor is then forcedto higher levels where it is again converted to icecrystals and precipitates out. A type of convection celldriven by phase changes recycles the upper portionsof the canopy.The upper-most ice crystal layers of the canopywould produce a reflective layer for solar radiation,preventing a portion of the incident radiation fromentering the atmosphere. This reflection of solarradiation at the very top of the atmosphere wouldreduce the solar constant by some yet unknownfactor. By reflecting this radiation at the top ofthe atmosphere it would not become involved inthe complex absorption, scattering, and emissionprocesses lower in the atmosphere. If this layer wasthin, relatively little incident radiation from thesun would be removed. However, if the layer wasthick, permitting greater amounts to be removed, itwould probably become less transparent for viewingof the sun, moon, and stars from the ground. It ispossible that the cirrus layer could also be “patchy” or“broken” giving intermittent visibility. The necessityfor visibility to see the sun, moon, and stars before the

Temperature Profiles for an Optimized Water Vapor Canopy7Flood is required from Genesis 1:14–19.For purposes of simulations reported in this paper,the solar extinction equation for cirrus developed bythe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationand distributed by a commercial software company(Ontar) was used. It calculates the extinction of solarradiation at 0.55 µm wavelength as:CEXT= 0.14 CTHIKwhere CEXT is the extinction of solar radiation andCTHIK is the thickness of a cirrus cloud in kilometers.The optimum cooling for cirrus clouds in the canopymodel occurred at a thickness of 4 km at an extinctionof just over 50%.Further studies need to conducted on the reflective,absorptive, and transmission properties from the topof thin cirrus clouds. It would be helpful to determineif thin layers of cirrus clouds can reflect largepercentages of solar radiation while at the same timepermitting planetary and stellar objects to be seenthrough them. Obviously, much more work needs tobe done.ConclusionsIt appears then that if a more dynamic view ofsolar history is entertained, earth’s climate may notonly allow a thicker vapor canopy, but may requireone. Evidence seems to exist that solar radiation wasmuch less in the past. The radiation reaching theatmosphere may have been as little as 25% of today’svalue. A thicker vapor canopy and weaker solarradiation could have balanced the rates of incomingand outgoing radiation and produce equable surfacetemperatures. A thicker vapor canopy would probablyreduce the solar radiation reaching the surface atshort, ultraviolet wavelengths and increase thesurface pressure. These effects would be expected tocreate healthier conditions on earth than exist today.RecommendationsIt is recommended that further climate simulationsbe conducted with thicker vapor canopies and smallersolar constants. Canopies of 100 to 1000 millibarsshould be explored for solar constants of 25% or lessof today’s value. Effects of such thick canopies andhigh cirrus decks on visibility should be checked toensure that enough visible light reaches the groundto allow the sun, moon, and stars to be seen. Thehealth benefits of reduced ultraviolet wavelengthsand increased pressure on plants and animals shouldalso be verified.It would be useful if three dimensional globalatmospheric general circulation models with a coupledocean model were used to test the vapor canopy. Thiswould be much more suitable for testing polar and(1)equatorial effects of radiation effects and includingthe dynamics as well. Such models are now becomingavailable and sufficiently economical that creationistsmay soon be able to utilize them. The vapor canopymodel is still alive and worth testing.AcknowledgmentsThe computers used in this study were provided byMr. Steve Low and his associates and matching giftsfrom the Hewlett-Packard Corporation. Softwareand supplies were purchased from donations by Mr.and Mrs. James Moyers and matching gifts fromthe Mobil Oil Corporation. The ICC reviewers of thispaper made it better by their critiques.ReferencesDillow, J. C. (1981). The waters above (479 pp.) Chicago, Illinois:Moody Press.Graham, J. B., Dudley, R., Aguilar, N., & Gans, C.(1995). Implications of the late Palaeozoic oxygenpulse for physiology and evolution. Nature, 375,117–120.Hess, S. L. (1959). Introduction to theoretical meteorology.Lalbar, Florida: Krieger Publishing Company.Houghton, J. T. (1986). The physics of atmospheres (2nd ed.).Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.Humphreys, D. R. (1994). Starlight and time (137 pp.) GreenForest, Arizona: Master Books.Humphreys, D. R. (2000). Accelerated nuclear decay: Aviable hypothesis? In L. Vardiman, A. A. Snelling, & E. F.Chaffin (Eds.), Radioisotopes and the age of the earth: Ayoung-earth creationist initiative (pp. 333–379). 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