Peace Without Poison

As soon as Nelson Mandela took over the reins of the country in 1994 and until the end of histerm in 1999 the program was slowed but not shut down and the total fertility rate declinedduring his presidency from 3.3 to 3 children per woman.Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (199-2008), slowed down the program even more and duringhis presidency the total fertility rate declined the least, from 3 to 2.5 children per woman, but itcontinued nevertheless.Mbeki’s successors, Kgalema Motlanthe (2008-2009) and incumbent President Jacob Zuma(since May 2009), have continued the program at a slower pace and the total fertility rate hasalmost reached replacement level, as it is currently at 2.2 children per woman.As most elsewhere in the world, South Africa’s contraceptive prevalence rate now (at 60%) andin the past (at near zero when fertility began declining in the 1960s) could not possibly accountfor the decline in fertility since the 1960s or for South Africa’s current replacement level fertility.Abortion, the historical record shows, is even less significant since it has never reached 10% andhas only been practiced since the turn of the 21 st century.South Africa has been rewarded for pursuing covert depopulation with a rising GDP. Its GDPdid not start to rise until 1980, by which time fertility had already declined from 6.5 to 4.5children per woman and did not explode until 2005, when fertility had sunk to 2.5 children perwoman, thus nearly replacement level.South Africa is in stage three of the demographic transition.769 | P a g e