Peace Without Poison

The total fertility graph shows that Albania started the depopulation program with a far higherfertility rate than the rest of Europe (nearly 6.5 children per woman) and accomplishedreplacement level fertility much later than the rest of Europe, namely in 2002. It currently has alow fertility rate of 1.5 children per woman.Albania’s much higher fertility rate, until recently at least, than the average Europeans isundoubtedly due to the fact that the majority of the population adheres to Sunni Islam rather thanChristianity and did not adopt the social practices of Christians (late marriage, compulsoryeducation for girls and boys) that helped Europe curb population growth prior to the applicationof covert chemical methods of sterilization after World War II.The decline in population (shown by the ‘total population by variant’ graph) since the fall ofcommunism in 1992 is due to heavy emigration. Live births still exceed deaths by circa 15,000 ayear and this means that the population is still growing modestly, but not for much longer.The fact that Albania, which is Europe’s poorest country with a nominal GDP per capita of$5,200, reached replacement and even sub-replacement level fertility despite its poverydemonstrates that low fertility has nothing to do with affluence. The historical record showsclearly that the GDP began rising only after Albania had nearly reached replacement level at theturn of the century.Albania’s contraceptive prevalence rate demonstrated that low fertility also has nothing to dowith contraceptives. As the graph below shows, Albania’s contraceptive prevalence rate hadbarely reached 57% by the year 2000 when replacement level fertility had nearly been reached.And prior to 1990, when Albania experienced the steepest fertility decline, contraceptive use wasalmost non-existent.Albania has just entered stage four of the demographic transition.18 | P a g e