2012 Weather Review: Heat and Drought Hit Eurasia

2012 Weather Review:Heat and Drought Hit EurasiaUSDA Agricultural Outlook ForumFebruary 22, 2013Eric LuebehusenMeteorologisteluebehusen@oce.usda.gov202-720-3361

US Heat and Drought havebeen the BIG Story

But we were not alone…

How did it all unfold?What areas and cropswere impacted?

Spring, 2012In the spring, 2012, near‐ to above‐normal rainfallacross most major growing areas seemed to pointtoward favorable winter and summer crop prospects.There were a few exceptions, most notably in northcentralEurope and in southwestern Russia.

Summer, 2012However, a much drier‐than‐normal summerimpacted crops from southern Europe into centraland eastern Russia. Areas hardest hit included cornin Italy, Romania, and Bulgaria, as well as springwheat in Russia’s Siberia District. Dry weather late inthe summer also trimmed corn yield expectations insouthwestern France after a favorable start.

Summer, 2012A closer look revealssummer drynesslined up with mostof the EU’s primarycorn areas.Corn

Italy: Po River ValleyCumulative Precipitation, June 1 – August 31Little if any rain fell during moisturecriticalstages of development, keepingirrigation demands highTassel/SilkFill

Southern RomaniaCumulative Precipitation, June 1 – August 31With no irrigation available, droughtrapidly took a toll on Balkans’ cornTassel/SilkFill

Southeast BulgariaCumulative Precipitation, June 1 – August 31With no irrigation available, droughtrapidly took a toll on Balkans’ cornTassel/SilkFill

Summer, 2012CornHeat was also an issue;95‐degree days werecommon in southernEurope’s Corn Belt

Italy – Po River ValleyDays at or above 95°FJune 1 – August 31, 1980-20122 nd Most:35 Days(10 Avg)CornAvg

Southern RomaniaDays at or above 95°FJune 1 – August 31, 1980-2012Most:45 Days(18 Avg)CornAvg

Northern BulgariaDays at or above 95°FJune 1 – August 31, 1980-2012Tied –Most44 Days(15 Avg)CornAvg

Southeast BulgariaDays at or above 95°FJune 1 – August 31, 1980-2012Most:35 Days(10 Avg)CornAvg

Summer, 2012Even more alarmingwas the frequency of100‐degree heat,especially in theBalkans.Corn

Southern RomaniaDays at or above 100°FJune 1 – August 31, 1980-2012Most:25 Days(5 Avg)CornAvg

Northern BulgariaDays at or above 100°FJune 1 – August 31, 1980-2012Most:25 Days(4 Avg)CornAvg

Corn37.6DamageStress104°F100°F95°F86°F77°FHeat was unrelenting anduntimely, making irrigation anincreasingly futile exercise.Tassel/SilkFill

Corn37.6DamageStress104°F100°F95°F86°F77°FIrrigation was removed from the Balkans;not sure it would’ve made much difference.Tassel/SilkFill

In June, before theheat, everythingseemed not onlyfine, but in someareas excellent.Corn

Within a month,conditions tanked inthe Balkans and Italy.Corn

By August, all of srnEurope was wiltingunder the heat.Corn

Corn

Non‐Functional irrigationAugust 2012; RomaniaBalkans’ 2012 crop‐tour pictures courtesy of Bryan Purcell, Crop Assessment Analyst, USDA FAS‐IPAD

Balkans’ 2012 crop‐tour pictures courtesy of Bryan Purcell, Crop Assessment Analyst, USDA FAS‐IPAD

Balkans’ 2012 crop‐tour pictures courtesy of Bryan Purcell, Crop Assessment Analyst, USDA FAS‐IPAD

EU-27 Corn Yield1999-20122012 EU‐27 Corn:Down 19% versus 2011Down 12% versus 5‐yr avgYield Data courtesy of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service's Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) online database

EU-27 Sunflower Yield1999-20122012 EU‐27 Sunflower:Down 17% versus 2011Down 9% versus 5‐yr avgYield Data courtesy of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service's Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) online database

EU-27 Wheat (All) Yield1999-20122012 EU‐27 Wheat:Down 3% versus 2011Down 3% versus 5‐yr avgYield Data courtesy of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service's Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) online database

Drought and heat lingered into theFall, impacting winter rapeseedplanting intentions in the Balkans.

Summer, 2012Farther east, summer drought was not aswidespread or intense. However, it wasideally timed and placed to have a majorimpact on several primary growing areas

Russia: Northern portions of the Southern DistrictCumulative Precipitation, March 1 – August 31Winter Wheat ‐Head/FlowerFill

Russia: Siberia District, NovosibirskCumulative Precipitation, March 1 – August 31Spring Wheat ‐Head/FlowerFill

Summer, 2012The southern Europe heat wave expanded east,encompassing key wheat and summer cropareas of Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan

Russia: Northern portions of the Southern DistrictDaily Maximum TemperatureJune 1 – August 31WinterWheat37.6DamageStress104°F100°F95°F86°F77°FHeat withered crops inportions of Russia’s SouthernDistrict, impacting late‐fillingwinter wheat

Northwestern KazakhstanDaily Maximum TemperatureJune 1 – August 31RussiaKazakhstanSpring Wheat37.6DamageStress104°F100°F95°F86°FHeat in northern Kazakhstanpeaked in mid‐ to late‐July,hammering reproductivespring wheat77°F

Russia: Siberia District, NovosibirskDaily Maximum TemperatureJune 1 – August 31RussiaKazakhstanSpring Wheat37.6DamageStress104°F100°F95°F86°F77°FWhile not quite as extreme, midtolate‐summer heat took a toll oneastern Russia’s spring wheat

RussiaKazakhstanNorthwestern KazakhstanDays at or above 95°FJune 1 – August 31, 1980-20122 nd Most:24 Days(10 Avg)Spring WheatAvg

RussiaKazakhstanRussia – Siberia District, OmskDays at or above 95°FJune 1 – August 31, 1980-2012Most:11 Days(3 Avg)Spring WheatAvg

Russia – Siberia District, NovosibirskRussiaKazakhstanDays at or above 95°FJune 1 – August 31, 1980-2012Tied –Most:8 Days(3 Avg)Spring WheatAvg

Spring WheatCornWinter WheatIn late June, only the drought in theSouthern District jumps out in theVHI; heat arrives shortly thereafter…

Spring WheatCornWinter WheatBy August, as spring wheat, corn,sunflowers, and other summercrops fill and mature, the impactsare widespread

Ukraine Corn Yield1990-20122012 Ukraine Corn:Down 26% versus 2011Down 3% versus 5‐yr avgYield Data courtesy of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service's Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) online database

Ukraine Sunflower Yield1990-20122012 Ukraine Sunflower:Down 17% versus 2011Down 2% versus 5‐yr avgYield Data courtesy of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service's Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) online database

Russia Wheat (All) Yield1990-20122012 Russia Wheat:Down 22% versus 2011Down 25% versus 5‐yr avgYield Data courtesy of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service's Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) online database

Kazakhstan Wheat (Spring) Yield1990-20122012 Kazak Wheat:Down 52% versus 2011*Down 48% versus 5‐yr avg* RecordYield Data courtesy of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service's Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) online database

We often hear “Cotton likes it hot”Well, to a point… and that point isgenerally accepted to be 102‐104°F(39‐40°C)

TURKEY: Western CottonDamageStress104°F95°F86°FFloweringMay Rainfall:DelayedFlowering?

Cotton Maturation/HarvestVHI clearly showing heat stress, althoirrigation in southeast remains evident

Turkey Cotton Yield1990-20122012 Turkey Cotton:Down 7% versus 2011Up 3% versus 5‐yr avgYield Data courtesy of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service's Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) online database

ConclusionsA much drier‐than‐normal summer impacted cropsfrom southern Europe into central and eastern Russia.Drought was most pronounced in southern Europe’scorn areas

ConclusionsFrequent damaging to excessive heat (highs greater 95°F,often above 100°F) occurred over many key corn,sunflower, and wheat areas from southern Europe intosouthern Ukraine , northern Kazakhstan, and centralRussia. Excessive heat also impacted cotton in portions ofthe Middle East

ConclusionsLarge expanses of crop stress are notedin the late‐August Vegetation HealthIndex, due largely to drought andexcessive heat.

ConclusionsFor 2013, lingering concerns exist overwinter wheat and rapeseed plantingmoisture in the Balkans and southernportions of Ukraine and Russia

MeteorologyOn a side note, February 5 th was “NationalWeatherman’s Day”… I didn’t know it existed untilthis year, when I was sent the following summary ofour profession…

Meteorology

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