Financial Stability Report No1 20 December 2010 - Banka Qendrore ...

Number 1Financial Stability ReportFigure 57. Inflation, average consumerpricesFigure 58. Real growth and budgetbalance, in percent108865.2%6.9%5.4%6420-22006 2007 2008 2009 2010 projChange in CPI, MacedoniaChange in CPI, EurozoneChange in CPI, CEFTASource: WEO April 2010, IMF420.0%-2.0%0-2-1.6% -1.9%-2.6%-4-4.5% -4.2%-62006 2007 2008 2009 2010 projBudget balance (% of GDP)∆ in real GDPSource: WEO April 2010, IMFFigure 59. Current account, in percentof GDP806040200-202006 2007 2008 2009 2010 projExports (% of GDP)Imports (% of GDP)Remittances (% of GDP)Current Account (% of GDP)Source: NBRM (2010) and WEO April 2010, IMFFigure 60. Deposit and loan growth, inpercent45.040.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 julLoan growthSource: NBRM (2010)Deposit growthMacedonia experiences relatively high current account deficit. Recently, potential adverseeffects may have come from trade with EU countries, since only Germany, Greece, Bulgariaand Italy comprise 45 % of exports and 31 % of imports. In the first part of 2010 Macedoniahas recorded a fall in exports to Greece, while imports have been increasing. Recent Greekcrisis may be a possible negative effect in the trade deficit of Macedonia with Greece. Inaddition, Macedonia has the smallest share of remittances to GDP (around 5 %), howeverwith a stable trend.Macedonia has a small banking system with limited reliance on external financing orinvestments. One of the biggest banks in Macedonia (Stopanska Banka) is a subsidiary of aGreek bank Nevertheless, banking sector in Macedonia, appear to be stable and goodpositioned. Around 30 % of the banking sector is euroized. In 2009 and in the beginning of2010 the government issued bonds with high interest rates and low risk, which createdmore favourable conditions for banks to invest in bonds rather than crediting the economy.66 |