Planning for Renewable Energy in Worcestershire Research Paper

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5. Worcestershire’s Vulnerability toClimate Change5.1 Worcestershire is vulnerable to theeffects of climate change. Thisvulnerability will differ from place to place,but County-wide predictions forWorcestershire include:●●●●●An increase in average maximumtemperature of up to 4.5 o C by the2080s;More frequent very hot summers andless frequent very cold winters;Summer rainfall to decrease by up to12% by 2020s and up to 50% by2080s;Winter rainfall to increase by up to23% by 2080s;More short duration extreme weatherevents such as storms and floods.Worcestershire Climate Change Strategy5.2 Several areas of the County havebeen identified as being at particular riskfrom climate change. As part of theClimate Change Strategy, the impacts ofthe changes listed above were predictedin terms of the increased risk of flooding,subsidence and fire.5.3 The predictions 13 suggest thatflooding will be a major issue along thecourse of the rivers Avon, Salwarpe,Severn, Stour and Teme, with potentiallyserious consequences for Worcester City,as well as Upton-upon-Severn, TenburyWells, Pershore, Bewdley, and Stourporton-Severn,amongst others. In July of2007 for example, the EnvironmentAgency recorded record flood levels inTenbury, Upton and Worcester. New flooddefences in Bewdley are a visibleexample of reactive adaptation to climatechange, but proactive mitigation of effectsthrough such measures as reducingdamaging emissions, must not beoverlooked.5.4 Alongside the increased risk offlooding, climate change can also affectthe risk of subsidence and the threat ofoutdoor fire. The Climate ChangeStrategy highlights that there is aheightened risk of subsidence of gleyedsoil and clay for much of the County.5.5 An increased risk of fire has beenpredicted for Hartlebury Common,Kempsey Common, the Lickey/Clent Hills,the Malvern Hills, and the Wyre Forest.13The Impact of Climate Change on Worcestershire - GCavan 2004, for Worcestershire Climate ChangeStrategy.5. WORCESTERSHIRE’S VULNERABILITY ● Planning for Renewable Energy in WorcestershireTechnical Research Paper 13
5. WORCESTERSHIRE’S VULNERABILITY ● Planning for Renewable Energy in Worcestershire5.6 Maps indicating these predictedareas of increased risk are reproduced atAppendix D. There may also bevulnerability issues associated withrenewable energy technologies. Thereexists, for example, the potential forflooding or drought to impact upon thegrowth of energy crops. These issuesshould be identified at the earliest stageso as to ensure that schemes are 'climateproofed' from the outset. Existingagricultural growers are already facingdifficulties through droughts; the Vale ofEvesham, in particular, is becomingincreasingly at risk.Alongside the risks identified in theClimate Change Strategy, new researchsuggests that it is also crucial to plan forpotential changes to biodiversity andlandscape. 13aIn Worcestershire this may include, forexample, increased vulnerability ofhedgerow trees to drought, and theconsequent impacts on landscapecharacter; and the impacts of both winterflood events and low summer river flowson Salmonid breeding habitats.5.7 For those rural areas wheregrid-connected electricity or gas suppliesmay be unavailable or at risk undersevere weather conditions,de-centralised, off-grid renewables couldoffer a far more secure means of supply.Extreme storm events can easily disruptcentralised distribution systems. Forexample, overhead power lines can bebroken under windy conditions, andelectricity sub-stations can be overrun byflood waters.WORCESTERSHIRE'S VULNERABILITY TOCLIMATE CHANGE: SUMMARY/SUGGESTIONS● WORCESTERSHIRE'S VULNERABILITY TO THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATECHANGE IS HIGH AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. THE SEVERITY OF 2007'SFLOODING HIGHLIGHTS THE COUNTY AS BEING AT PARTICULAR RISK.● RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH THE MITIGATION OF,AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE BY REDUCING THE EMISSIONS THATCAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE AND BY PROVIDING A MORE SECURE MEANS OFSUPPLY.13aPlanning for Climate Change in WorcestershireTechnical Research Paper, Worcestershire CountyCouncil, 2008.14Technical Research Paper
Page 2 and 3: TECHNICAL RESEARCH PAPERPlanning fo
Page 4 and 5: Executive SummaryGenerating energy
Page 6 and 7: SOCIAL BENEFITS OF RENEWABLEENERGY
Page 8 and 9: 1. Purpose1.1 This working paper is
Page 10 and 11: significant positive impact. Conser
Page 12 and 13: 3.1 An Energy White Paper, 'Meeting
Page 14 and 15: Regional3.10 The West Midlands Regi
Page 16 and 17: 4. Community Strategies, Climate Ch
Page 18 and 19: As mentioned elsewhere in this pape
Page 22 and 23: 6. Renewable Energy and the Environ
Page 24 and 25: 6.10 Green belt designation covers
Page 26 and 27: 7. Social benefits of Renewable Ene
Page 28 and 29: 8.10 The economicbenefits of renewa
Page 30 and 31: Fig.1 - Responses to Questions 13(d
Page 32 and 33: 10. Baseline Data and Forecasts10.1
Page 34 and 35: 11. Technological Issues for Renewa
Page 36 and 37: 12. Infrastructure Requirements12.1
Page 38 and 39: 13.7 This research paper provides a
Page 40 and 41: Appendix A. Characteristics and App
Page 42 and 43: Domestic Micro Wind TurbinesDomesti
Page 44 and 45: Forests and WoodlandThe potential o
Page 46 and 47: acknowledged that increasing the su
Page 48 and 49: Ground/Water/Air Source HeatPumpsGr
Page 50 and 51: Biogas (Anaerobic Digestion)Biogas
Page 52 and 53: OpportunitiesFew planning obstacles
Page 54 and 55: OpportunitiesSignificant potential
Page 56 and 57: GROUND/AIR/WATER SOURCE HEAT PUMPSO
Page 58 and 59: Appendix C. Example calculations of
Page 60 and 61: Appendix D. Maps of Predicted Incre
Page 62 and 63: Appendix E. Energy Saving Trust tab
Page 64 and 65: MAP OF DELIVERABLE WIND RESOURCEIN
Page 66 and 67: SOLAR IRRADIANCE AT DIFFERENTLOCATI
Page 68 and 69: MAP OF UPTAKE OF ENERGY CROP SCHEME
Page 70 and 71:
FORESTRY COMMISSION WOODLAND OPPORT
Page 72 and 73:
DISTRIBUTION OF WOODLAND OF OVER 2
Page 74 and 75:
CO2 EMMISSIONS IN WORCESTERSHIRE IN
Page 76 and 77:
CHANGE IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN WORCESTE
Page 78 and 79:
TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AT L
Page 80 and 81:
Appendix H. Sources of Further Info
Page 82 and 83:
Further ReadingThe Assessment and R
Page 84 and 85:
Rural Regeneration Zone Annual Repo
Page 86:
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