Planning for Renewable Energy in Worcestershire Research Paper

5. Worcestershire’s Vulnerability toClimate Change5.1 Worcestershire is vulnerable to theeffects of climate change. Thisvulnerability will differ from place to place,but County-wide predictions forWorcestershire include:●●●●●An increase in average maximumtemperature of up to 4.5 o C by the2080s;More frequent very hot summers andless frequent very cold winters;Summer rainfall to decrease by up to12% by 2020s and up to 50% by2080s;Winter rainfall to increase by up to23% by 2080s;More short duration extreme weatherevents such as storms and floods.Worcestershire Climate Change Strategy5.2 Several areas of the County havebeen identified as being at particular riskfrom climate change. As part of theClimate Change Strategy, the impacts ofthe changes listed above were predictedin terms of the increased risk of flooding,subsidence and fire.5.3 The predictions 13 suggest thatflooding will be a major issue along thecourse of the rivers Avon, Salwarpe,Severn, Stour and Teme, with potentiallyserious consequences for Worcester City,as well as Upton-upon-Severn, TenburyWells, Pershore, Bewdley, and Stourporton-Severn,amongst others. In July of2007 for example, the EnvironmentAgency recorded record flood levels inTenbury, Upton and Worcester. New flooddefences in Bewdley are a visibleexample of reactive adaptation to climatechange, but proactive mitigation of effectsthrough such measures as reducingdamaging emissions, must not beoverlooked.5.4 Alongside the increased risk offlooding, climate change can also affectthe risk of subsidence and the threat ofoutdoor fire. The Climate ChangeStrategy highlights that there is aheightened risk of subsidence of gleyedsoil and clay for much of the County.5.5 An increased risk of fire has beenpredicted for Hartlebury Common,Kempsey Common, the Lickey/Clent Hills,the Malvern Hills, and the Wyre Forest.13The Impact of Climate Change on Worcestershire - GCavan 2004, for Worcestershire Climate ChangeStrategy.5. WORCESTERSHIRE’S VULNERABILITY ● Planning for Renewable Energy in WorcestershireTechnical Research Paper 13