Slayt 1 - RTC, Regional Training Centre - Turkey

Outlook As computer power increases and the number and complexity of schemesgrows, it is important to remember the following:1. The improved simulation of natural detail important to atmospheric processesleads to greater forecast sensitivity to physical parameters whose values arepoorly or not at all known. (This is especially true for detailed structure in shortrangeforecasts and long-term background means in long-range forecasts)2. More sophisticated schemes and finer resolution will lead to more realisticlookingforecast detail but also more complicated model error characteristics3. The increasing complexity of model error characteristics will result in greaterreliance on model diagnostics to make adjustments to the model forecast fields4. Model changes will take longer to develop and test because changes in oneparameterization affect the behavior of other parameterizations through acomplex web of interactions5. Operational model changes will continue to be released in bundles, rather thanindividually, because of the need to test complex interactions together6. Although model skill will improve and model phenomena will appear morerealistic, model output will still require human interpretation and adjustment