Slayt 1 - RTC, Regional Training Centre - Turkey

Model ComponentsForecast:This represents the final product for which NWP was ultimately developed. The format, meteorologicalvariables, forecast period, and frequency are driven by customer needs.Verification:Forecasters use model verification data to identify specific limitations and statistical biases of modelguidance and to compensate for them. Modelers use verification data to help identify deficiencies sothey can improve forecast model components. Model verification is an integral part of the NWPdevelopment process.Forecast Process:In the forecast process, model output and current observations are combined with the forecaster'sunderstanding of meteorological principles to develop a forecast for the area of responsibility.Centralized subjective guidance is used to help with specialized aspects of the forecast. Themeteorological variables required in the forecast and the customer needs drive the types of guidanceproducts and observations used in the forecast development process.Understanding Meteorological Principles:A thorough understanding of basic meteorological principles and relationships is necessary tointelligently use model guidance so one can, for example, identify when model output is notmeteorologically sound or consistent. As models become more complex and predict more detailed andrealistic-looking features, there is a greater need to understand meteorological principles in order tointelligently take advantage of NWP and avoid being misled. Knowledge of local climatology, terraininfluences, and model performance in the local area is also important to developing the best possibleforecast.Observations:Observations of all types are needed to ascertain current atmospheric conditions and to evaluate theaccuracy of a model's analysis or forecast. Observations provide the ground-truth data and are used tohelp assess the reliability of model output and to make necessary adjustments.