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Backdrop: 2007The 20 Largest Retailers:Avg FY2 Rolling P/E Multiple, monthly20x19x18x17x16x15x14x13x12x6058565452504846444240383634323028262422201816141210Months ago...BBY, COH, COST, CVS, GPS, HD, JCP, JWN, KSS, LOW, LTD, M, NKE, SHLD, SHW, SPLS, TGT, TJX, WAG, WMT8
Conclusion: 6/07• SSS are slowing.• Store growth has accelerated.• Inventory growth has outpaced sales growth fortoo long.• Productivity gains are peaking (have peaked?).• The US retail store landscape is mature and isshowing signs of over-crowding.• This will result in weak retail sector performance.Sell retail stocks.9
Page 1 and 2: The detail on retailfor MN Shopping
Page 3 and 4: Backdrop: 2004For the nation's 12 l
Page 5 and 6: Backdrop: 2005For the nation's 12 l
Page 7: Backdrop: 2007For the nation's 12 l
Page 11 and 12: Retail Landscapeand Stock Evaluatio
Page 13 and 14: On the rise again.US Retail Store C
Page 15: Even as Wal-Mart has slowed square
Page 18 and 19: For the nation's 12 largest retaile
Page 20 and 21: Valuation check: Stocks "look cheap
Page 24 and 25: When is it enough???24
Page 28: Today’s proven catalystsfor picki
Page 34 and 35: Wal-Mart for 200834
Page 36: Thank you.36

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