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2008: Recession loomsa b c d eYr Sls Growth Recession? Fed Funds Retailers'(YOY % Chg) Rate Cuts EPS Revisions1990 19 starts 7/90 Yes, several down (11%), the trough1991 24 ends 3/91 Yes, several down (6%), less bad1995 18 No 2 in 2H down (7%), the trough1996 12 No 1 in Jan down (5%), less bad2000 11 No No, raised 3x down (15%), the trough2001 6.2 3/01 - 11/01 Yes, 11x down (12%), less bad2007 5.2 No 3 in 2H down (6%)2008 4.8e Yes? 3 YTD still negativeRetailers used:WMT, HD, KR, COST, TGT, CVS, WAG, SHLD, LOW, BBY, M, JCP, SPLS, TJX, KSS,GPS, ODP, CC, LTD, JWN, OMX, BJ, SHW, DDS, BBBY, FDO12
On the rise again.US Retail Store CLOSINGS3,5003,0002,6443,0682,5002,2362,0001,7131,5001,2531,00050002004 2005 2006 2007 2008eNote: I'm starting w/2004 data b/c 2004 represents the most recent yr retail stocks outperformed the S&P…until 2008.13
Page 1 and 2: The detail on retailfor MN Shopping
Page 3 and 4: Backdrop: 2004For the nation's 12 l
Page 9 and 10: Conclusion: 6/07• SSS are slowing
Page 11: Retail Landscapeand Stock Evaluatio
Page 15: Even as Wal-Mart has slowed square
Page 18 and 19: For the nation's 12 largest retaile
Page 20 and 21: Valuation check: Stocks "look cheap
Page 24 and 25: When is it enough???24
Page 28: Today’s proven catalystsfor picki
Page 34 and 35: Wal-Mart for 200834
Page 36: Thank you.36

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