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Bloomberg/ ­- Politics, Dom, 15 de Abril de 2012
CLIPPING INTERNACIONAL (Supreme Court)
Pakistan Spring Emerging From Winter
of Discontent
About Vali Nasr Vali Nasr is a professor of
international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and
Diplomacy of Tufts University. From 2009 to 2011, he
was an advisor to the U.S. Special Representative for
Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke. More
about Vali Nasr The snarling between the U.S. and
Pakistan won’t let up. The battle began, of course,
when U.S. forces sneaked into Pakistan to kill Osama
bin Laden last May. Last week, the U.S. upped the
ante, announcing a $10 million reward for information
leading to the arrest of notorious terrorist Hafiz
Muhammad Saeed, who is thought to be close to
Pakistani intelligence. Things are so bad, Pakistani
author Ahmed Rashid pronounced in his recently
published book, “The United States and Pakistan are
just short of going to war.” America’s greater fear is
that Pakistan will get in the way of war. Pakistan’s
Parliament last week unanimously voted to forbid the
U.S. from conducting drone strikes inside Pakistani
territory. If the measure is implemented, it will deny the
U.S. its most effective weapon against al­-Qaeda and
other militant groups. Yet, as worrisome as the trend in
bilateral relations is, other developments within
Pakistan signal that the country may be changing for
the better, in terms of the military’s role, democratic
tendencies and relations with India. By focusing on the
security dimension of its relationship with Pakistan, the
U.S. risks missing these currents and thus the
opportunity to engage with the country in fruitful new
ways. Unexpected Turn One new twist that should be
particularly gratifying to the U.S. is the Pakistani
public’s unexpected turn against the military. Popular
anger at the U.S. for swooping into the country to kill
bin Laden was matched by outrage that the military
was caught snoozing by U.S. commandos. Pakistanis
asked: Why do we need such an expensive military if it
can’t even protect the country’s borders and doesn’t
know that the world’s most wanted man is hiding in a
garrison town? If that weren’t enough, three weeks
later, extremists attacked the naval base in Karachi,
which houses nuclear warheads. They destroyed a
helicopter and two advanced P­-3C Orion patrol
aircraft. Pakistani special forces lost 10 men and had
to fight for 16 hours to end the siege. More
embarrassments followed. Impassioned appeals to the
Supreme Court to find President Asif Ali Zardari a
traitor backfired on the army and intelligence chiefs
when the credibility of their witness, who had claimed
that Zardari was colluding with the U.S. against the
military, dissolved amid the man’s ever­-changing story
and his cameo in a mud­-wrestling video. Next, the
Supreme Court opened hearings in a case alleging
that the military bought votes in the 1990 election. The
televised spectacle of generals hauled to court to
answer judges has mesmerized Pakistanis. The
humbling of the military is good news for democracy in
Pakistan. National elections may take place as early
as October and must occur by February. With the
military restrained, there is hope that voting will be free
and fair, and that the outcome may further strengthen
civilian rule. There are signs that democracy already is
budding in what may prove to be a Pakistani Spring.
Amid widespread disenchantment with corruption and
government mismanagement, the young and the
middle class are restless. Many have flocked to
anti­-establishment politician Imran Khan, a former
cricket hero, and his Movement for Justice. Khan isn’t
friendly to the U.S.; he promises to stand up to
America. But in other ways his campaign has
enhanced the political debate. He regularly addresses
the need to earnestly battle corruption and to reform
the woefully inadequate tax system. Questioning the
Rolls Also, at Imran’s request, the Supreme Court in
February reviewed the electoral rolls and questioned
the validity of 35 million names, about 44 percent of
the 80 million registered. Given that 32 million new
young voters will be added to the rolls, Pakistan may
have its cleanest ­-­- and most unpredictable ­-­- election
since the 1970s. At the same time, Pakistan’s relations
with India have mellowed. With Pakistan’s economy in
poor shape ­-­- growth was 2.4 percent in 2011 and
there is little foreign investment or aid ­-­- its business
community has convinced the military that expansion
can come only through increased trade with India.
Pakistan’s government has agreed to remove
restrictions on the import of most goods from India by
year’s end. Liberated from military pressure and eager
to add momentum to the cross­-border commerce,
Zardari went to New Delhi on April 8, the first Pakistani
head of state to visit in seven years. There is now talk
of even more trade and greater cooperation on other
fronts. A humbled military, a resurgent democracy and
better ties with India are all things the U.S. wants to
see in Pakistan. Together they present hope, however
slight, for a more stable, constructive Pakistan. In
responding to the Pakistani Parliament’s new security
demands, the Obama administration should consider
these developments rather than answering on purely
military grounds. The U.S. should be careful not to
derail these positive trends, for instance by provoking
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