Climate Change Decision Making: The Co-benefits Story

Climate Change Decision Making:The Co-benefits StoryKirk R. SmithProfessor of Global Environmental HealthUniversity of California, BerkeleyInternational Colloquium onThe Grand Scientific Challenges ofCombating Climate ChangeUnversidad Autotnoma MetropolitanaMexico City, November 9, 2011

Cartogram of Climate-related Mortality (per million pop) yr. 2000PatzJA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change and global:Quantifying a growing ethical crisis EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007.

Cumulative CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels(as depleted by natural processes)Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change and global:Quantifying a growing ethical crisis EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007

Distribution of Health Impacts fromClimate Change(Experiencing versus Imposing)10.00DALYs per 10001.000.100.010 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 350000.00PPP per capitaSmith and Rodgers

Ratio1000010001001010.10.01Distribution of Health Impacts fromClimate Change(Ratio: Imposing/Experiencing)>8000x different!!0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000Poor countries receive >16 times more healthrisk than they imposePPP per capitaRichcountriesimpose>500times morerisk thantheyreceive

CC Health Effects, cont.5) Co-benefits: Achieving health- andclimate-protection benefits with the samepolicies and projects

Proposed IPCC Definition of Co-Benefits• Co-benefit actions are those taken to mitigateclimate change that have significant benefits ofother types for society.• Although there is no mitigation action that does nothave at least some influence on other sectors, cobenefitsactivities are those in which there issufficient impact to be considered an intervention intheir own right for those sectors.

Being Smart about Mitigation• Co-benefits: Guide mitigation measures sothey help achieve other societal goals,including health protection.• No-regrets: providing a short-term morecertain return (health) on a long-term moreuncertain investment (climate protection)• Win-win: Double return on single investment

Why Worry about Co-benefits?• Helps reduce the cost of mitigation by sharingcost with other sectors.• Recognizes that society still has major goalsbesides avoiding climate change, such asproviding acceptable levels of health protection• Potentially bridge political gap betweendeveloped and developing countries ininternational climate negotiations – earlyachievement of more certain benefits that directlyrelate to development needs

Global warming in 2005 due to all human emissions since 1750IPCC, 2007CO2 is themost importantGreenhouse GasMostly from fuelcombustion

Air Pollution from Energy Use• Outdoor emissions from energy systems• 1 million premature deaths around the world• Most well documented benefits, climate and health• Energy efficiency, fuel shifting lead to lessclimate impact and less ill-health• Some difficult issues related to relativeclimate impacts of different aerosols, e.g.,black carbon, sulfates, organic carbon

CitiesClimate Warming in 2020 Under Present TrendsProceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences, 2010

Modifying the Built Environment• Obesity, traffic accidents, and lack ofphysical activity responsible for 3+ millionadditional premature deaths annually• Reduce vehicle use (air pollution, obesity,safety, etc)• Change urban design to increase physicalactivity (obesity, air pollution, safety)• Improve energy efficiency of buildings(avoid health risks of energy poverty)

MeatanddiaryClimate Warming in 2020 Under Present TrendsUnger et al. PNAS 2010

Redirecting Diet Preferences• Livestock responsible for 20+% of globalgreenhouse emissions – methane from animaldigestion plus operation of meat/dairy feed/supplysystems• Converge on lower mean global red meatconsumption with health benefits in rich countriesin heart disease, diabetes, and colon cancer• Similar benefits to convergence in global dairyconsumption• China/India have the major global growthpotential

Trends in consumption of livestock products per personFAO

Global warming in 2005 due to all human emissions since 1750IPCC, 2007Methane is secondmost importantGreenhouse Gas

MethaneClimate Warming in 2020 Under Present TrendsUnger et al. PNAS 2010

Methane Reduction• Second most important greenhouse gas• Major cause of rise in global troposphericozone concentrations – important healthdamagingand crop-damaging pollutant• Livestock a major source• Leaks: Coal mines, gas pipelines, etc.• Waste management: Landfills, wastewater• Incomplete combustion: biomass and coal

Mortality from ozone per 1000 km2 and per million peopleAnnenberg et al., 2010

Methane• Way to reduce warming in the next generation is toput more attention on methane (and other shorterlived GHGs)• The rate of warming is as important as the totalamount• Way to slow the rate is to immediately reducemethane emissions• Need to start working soon to lower rate in order togive us time to deal with CO2, a more difficultissue

HouseholdcookingwithbiomassClimate Warming in 2020 Under Present TrendsUnger et al. PNAS 2010

300-400 thousand years ago, hearths becamea regular feature in human habitation”On the earliest evidence forhabitual use of fire”Roebroeks and Villa,PNAS, 2011

800070006000500040003000200010000World Population Using Solid FuelsWorld PopSolid Fuel Users1965197019751980198519901995200020052010195019551960Million Peope

~30millionHouseholds Using Solid Fuels

Global warming in 2005 due to all human emissions since 1750IPCC, 2007CO 2 is important for climate,but so are many otherpollutants, including the onescircled that, unlike CO 2 , alsohave significant health aswell as climate impacts.All these are produced byincomplete combustionin household stoves usingsimple solid fuels

Household Fuels: where the mostrubber hits the co-benefits road• Large source of ill-health worldwide inpoorest populations ~ 2 million prematuredeaths annually• Non-renewable biomass and coal fuelsproduce net CO2 emissions• Poor combustion leads to non-CO2greenhouse-related emissions

Household Fuels a Major SourceCross‐checking of Outdoor results: Air Pollution in Asia%PM 2.5 from “Residential” Emissions from INTEX_B30%0%53%Householdof all PM2.5EmissionsChafe, 2010Source: Asian Emission Inventory for NASA INTEX_B 2006 (accessed 2010)30

Household combustion only a cause ofoutdoor air pollution in Asia?• Small particles, PM2.5, are the most important forhealth• According to the World Health Organization,Mexican cities have PM2.5 levels averaging 25‐30ug/m3 ‐‐ worst at 50 (Mex standard – 15)• Villages in Michoacán, just for comparison, have24‐h outdoor levels of 60‐90 ug/m3 (Zuk et al., 2006)• Nearly all from household combustion

ALRI/PneumoniaLow birthweightAsthma?Birth defectsCognitiveImpairmentDiseases for which we haveepidemiological studies showinga link to household biomass useAlso burns and scaldsChronicobstructivelung diseaseCataractsLung cancer(cervical,aero-digestive?)Heart disease/strokeTuberculosis

Global Burden of Disease from Top 10 Risk Factorsplus selected other risk factorsPercent of All DALYs0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%UnderweightUnsafe sexBlood pressureTobaccoAlcoholUnsafe water/sanitationChild cluster vaccination*CholesterolLack of Malaria control*Indoor smoke from solid fuels1.6 million prematuredeaths/yearOverweightOccupational hazards (5 kinds)Road traffic accidents*Physical inactivityLead (Pb) pollutionUrban outdoor air pollutionClimate changeChernobyl per month0.8 million prematuredeaths/year0.12 million prematuredeaths/year

To be published Nov 11, 2011

RESPIRE – Randomized trial (n=518)Impact on pneumonia up to 18 months of ageTraditional open 3-stone 3fire:kitchen 48-hour PM 2.5 levels of600 - 1200 μg/m3Chimney wood stove, locally madeand popular with households

CO monitorCO monitor

MD-diagnosed Acute Lower Respiratory InfectionWhere weWant toBe!ALRI Rate (per 100 Child-Yr)20 30 40 60 80(A)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Approximate Mean CO PM2.5 Exposure exposure (ppm) in 100s of ug/m3RESPIRE-Guatemala

Environmental Health PerspectivesNov, 2011

October2011

Cervical Cancer and Household Air PollutionThree papers; two done in Honduras, one in Columbia

What Intervention Affectsall of these SectorsClimate Warmingand has Majorin 2020HealthUnderBenefitsPresent Trendsas well?Unger et al. PNAS 2010

Most cost-effective GHG controldevice is probably a condom• Many tens of millions of women wish tohave fewer children, but do not have accessto contraceptives• Giving them access could mean ~2 billionfewer people by 2100 – a major reduction ofstress on the Earth• Many health benefits, particularly child andmaternal mortality, to smaller, more plannedfamilies

Risk ofMaternalMortalityThe very age groups thatmost wish to avoidpregnancy Contraceptive are thoseusewith the and highest Maternal riskMortalityof complications13 45Age of Mother

Child Deaths Potentially Averted

Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesOctober 12, 2010 | vol. 107 | no. 41 | 17521–17526

Global CO2 Emissions Under different Fertility ScenariosO'Neill B C et al. PNAS 2010;107:17521-17526

Access to Reproductive Services• Not population control, but reproductiverights• All countries on the way to replacementfertility this century• Just a matter of making it possible to happensooner rather than later in the century• Large health benefits can be accrued

CO2 and methane onlyHaigler andSmith, 2008Smith and Haigler, Ann Rev of Public Health, 2008

Summary• Carbon dioxide controls absolutely needed toblunt climate change impacts• Considerable health co-benefits in doing so ifprojects are targeted• Even greater health co-benefits can achieved byfocusing on other climate-altering pollutants(CAPs: methane, black carbon, etc.)• These mostly have an impact on rate of warming,not total• But rate is also important for impacts

GraciasPublications andpresentations on website– easiest to just“google” Kirk R. Smith

Global warming in 2005 due to all human emissions since 1750IPCC, 2007Sulfate is coolingfor climate,but damaging tohealth