Global Liquidity - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Global Liquidity - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Global Liquidity - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
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<strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing:<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.July 31, 2014<strong>Dr</strong>. <strong>Ed</strong>ward Yardeni516-972-7683eyardeni@yardeni.comDebbie Johnson480-664-1333djohnson@yardeni.comMali Quintana480-664-1333aquintana@yardeni.comPlease visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.comthinking outside the box
Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong> Supply 1International Reserves & World Exports 2Foreign Exchange Holdings 3Allocated Official Foreign Exchange Reserves 4Foreign Official Dollar Reserves (FRODOR) 5US Treasuries & Agencies 6-7Foreign Holders 8-9Non-Gold Reserves: Emerging vs. Advanced 10Non-Gold Reserves: Asia 11-12Non-Gold Reserves: Latin America 13Non-Gold Reserves: Middle East 14Miscellaneous 15-16July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong> Supply18.516.514.512.510.5Figure 1.GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPLY(trillion dollars, ratio scale)MayMay18.516.514.512.510.58.5<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong> Supply*8.56.5Non-GoldInternational Reserves6.54.54.52.52.5.5yardeni.com88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.5* Non-gold international reserves plus Fed’s holdings of US Treasuries and Agencies.Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Federal Reserve Board.40Figure 2.GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPLY*(yearly percent change)403020<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong> Supply* (11.8)Non-GoldInternational Reserves (6.6)302010May1000-10yardeni.com88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16-10* Non-gold international reserves plus Fed’s holdings of US Treasuries and Agencies.Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Federal Reserve Board.Page 1 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
International Reserves & World Exports24.118.112.1Figure 3.WORLD EXPORTS vs NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(trillion dollars, ratio scale)MayMay24.118.112.16.16.1World Exports(12-month sum)Non-GoldInternational Reserves.175 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).yardeni.com.160Figure 4.WORLD EXPORTS vs NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(yearly percent change)60404020200May0-20Value of World Exports*Non-GoldInternational Reserves-20-40yardeni.com75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-40* Yearly percent change in 12-month average.Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).Page 2 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Foreign Exchange Holdings13.112.111.110.19.1Figure 5.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES vs FOREIGN EXCHANGE HOLDINGS(trillion dollars, ratio scale)May13.112.111.110.19.18.18.17.1All Central Banks7.16.1Total Foreign Exchange Holdings6.15.1Non-GoldInternational Reserves5.14.14.13.13.12.12.11.11999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).yardeni.com1.11312111098Figure 6.FOREIGN EXCHANGE HOLDINGS vs. ALLOCATED RESERVES(trillion dollars, ratio scale)Q1131211109876All Central BanksTotal Foreign Exchange HoldingsQ1765Allocated Reserves544332211999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).yardeni.com1Page 3 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Allocated Official Foreign Exchange Reserves65005500Figure 7.CURRENCY COMPOSITION OFOFFICIAL FOREIGN EXCHANGERESERVES (COFER)(billions of dollars)Q1ALL CLAIMS IN US DOLLARS(as a percent of Allocated Reserves)7545003500All CountriesAllocated ReservesClaims inUS DollarsQ1All Countries702500651500500yardeni.com99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Q1yardeni.com99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 156038003400300026002200180014001000600Industrial CountriesAllocated ReservesClaims inUS Dollars99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Q1Q1yardeni.comIndustrial CountriesQ1yardeni.com99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1574737271706968676665646362616030007826002200Developing CountriesAllocated ReservesClaims in US DollarsQ17674727018001400Q1Developing Countries6866641000Q16260600200yardeni.com99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15yardeni.com99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15585654Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).Page 4 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
13.612.611.610.69.68.67.66.65.6Figure 8.Foreign Official Dollar Reserves (FRODOR)NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES vs FRODOR(trillion dollars, ratio scale)Non-GoldInternational ReservesMay13.612.611.610.69.68.67.66.65.64.63.6Foreign Official Dollar Reserves:US Treasuries & AgenciesHeld By Foreign Central Banks7/304.63.62.62.61.62003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).yardeni.com1.646504150365031502650Figure 9.FOREIGN OFFICIAL DOLLAR RESERVES*(billion dollars, ratio scale)7/3046504150365031502650215021501650165011501150650650US Treasuries & AgenciesUS TreasuriesUS Agencies150yardeni.com2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014150* Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed. Average of week ending Wednesday.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.Page 5 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
US Treasuries & Agencies26002400Figure 10.US TREASURIES & AGENCIES HELD BY FED(billion dollars)7/302600240022002200200018001600US TreasuriesUS Agencies7/3020001800160014001400120012001000100080080060060040040020002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.yardeni.com20008000Figure 11.US TREASURIES & AGENCIES HELD BY FED & FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS(billion dollars)7/308000700070006000600050005000400040003000300020002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Federal Reserve Board.yardeni.com2000Page 6 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
42004000380036003400320030002800260024002200200018001600140012001000800600400Figure 12.US TREASURIES & AGENCIES HELD BY:(billion dollars, nsa)FedForeign Central BanksUS Commercial Banks2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Federal Reserve Board.US Treasuries & Agencies7/307/16yardeni.com4200400038003600340032003000280026002400220020001800160014001200100080060040095009000850080007500700065006000550050004500400035003000250020001500Figure 13.US TREASURIES & AGENCIES HELD BY:(billion dollars, nsa)2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Federal Reserve Board.Fed + Foreign Central Banks +US Commercial BanksFed + US Commercial Banks7/167/16yardeni.com95009000850080007500700065006000550050004500400035003000250020001500Page 7 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Foreign Holders70006000Figure 14.MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF US TREASURY SECURITIES(billion dollars)May700060005000Grand TotalForeign Official Instititutions50004000Held by Foreign Central Banks40003000300020002000100010000802001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015080757570May706560Foreign Official Institutions(as a percent of Grand Total)6560555550454035302520152001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Grand Total(as a percent of public debt)Foreign Official Institutions(as a percent of public debt)2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs, US Treasury, and Federal Reserve Board.MayMayyardeni.com55555045403530252015Page 8 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
3836Figure 15.Foreign HoldersFOREIGN OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS HOLDINGS OF US TREASURY SECURITIES(as a percent on Non-Gold International Reserves)38363434May32323030282826262424221999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs, and International Monetary Fund.yardeni.com22403836Figure 16.TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR vs. FOREIGN OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS HOLDINGSOF US TREASURY SECURITIES(as a percent of Non-Gold International Reserves)Foreign Institutions Holdingsof US Treasury Securities1401351303432Broad Trade-WeightedDollarMay125120115301102826Jun105100249522yardeni.com1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs, and International Monetary Fund.90Page 9 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
124501045084506450Figure 17.Non-Gold Reserves: Emerging vs. AdvancedINTERNATIONAL RESERVES (EX-GOLD): ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES(billion dollars, ratio scale)May1245010450845064504450May445024502450Emerging Countries (8193.4)Advanced Countries* (4222.5)450yardeni.com2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015450* Includes United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland,Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.80Figure 18.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: EMERGING vs ADVANCED COUNTRIES(yearly percent change in 12-month average)80606040Emerging CountriesAdvanced Countries*402020May00-20yardeni.com75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17-20* Includes United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland,Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.Page 10 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Non-Gold Reserves: Asia481042103610301024101810Figure 19.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, ratio scale)Mar4810421036103010241018101210Jun1210Mar610610Asia Ex Japan & ChinaChinaJapan1087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.yardeni.com10541451361271Figure 20.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, ratio scale)Jun5414513612711811819191South KoreaTaiwanIndia187 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.yardeni.com1Page 11 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Non-Gold Reserves: Asia317272227182Figure 21.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, ratio scale)Jun31727222718213792JunJun137924747MalaysiaIndonesiaSingapore287 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.yardeni.com2220.2165.2110.2Figure 22.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, ratio scale)Jun220.2165.2110.255.2Jun55.2ThailandPhilippines.287 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.yardeni.com.2Page 12 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Non-Gold Reserves: Latin America730650570490410330Figure 23.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, ratio scale)May7306505704904103302502501701709090Latin America*10yardeni.com87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1610* Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.480.5400.5320.5240.5160.5Figure 24.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, ratio scale)Jun480.5400.5320.5240.5160.580.580.5MexicoBrazilArgentinaChile.587 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.yardeni.com.5Page 13 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
1340124011401040940840740640540Figure 25.Non-Gold Reserves: Middle EastNON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, ratio scale)May1340124011401040940840740640540440440340340240240140Middle East1404087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.yardeni.com40902812722632542452362272Figure 26.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, ratio scale)Jun9028127226325424523622721821829292Saudi Arabia287 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.yardeni.com2Page 14 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
140120Figure 27.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, nsa)MiscellaneousMay140120100100Turkey8080606040402020097 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.yardeni.com05045Figure 28.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, nsa)Jun50454040353530South Africa30252520201515101055097 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Source: South African Reserve Bank.yardeni.com0Page 15 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
600Figure 29.NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, nsa)Miscellaneous600500500400RussiaJun400300300200200100100097 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation.yardeni.com0Page 16 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>Global</strong> Economic Briefing: <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Liquidity</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
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