Recipes for Systemic Change - Helsinki Design Lab

first group of dependents of the social contract between generations thatdefines the Nordic Model. The fates of the Baby Boom generation and thesocial welfare system have been tied together since their inception, and willcontinue to be intertwined well into the future.D1.4 Preparing For The WaveIntensity ofeconomic, socialand demographicpressures"Perfect Storm""Rise in sea level"Time"100 Year Flood"The following three descriptive models are conceptual starting pointsfor considering the pressures that the Silver Wave will put on the welfaresystem.The hundred-year flood: The Silver Wave can be likened to a comingflood, a finite surging and receding of demographic, financial, and socialpressures. In this situation, is it better to prepare for a one-year flood, aten-year flood, or a hundred-year flood? With short-term preparation, inthe case of the one-year flood, one risks being swept away by a larger swell.Preparation for the hundred-year flood creates risks of bankruptcy throughexcessive expenditure. Should the Silver Wave be considered a temporarychallenge to the welfare system—however long in duration—that will eventuallyrecede? How can solutions be scaled up and down accordingly?The Rise in Sea Level: If the surge is not temporary, it may be likenedto a permanent rise in sea level. The changes demanded by such an eventwould imply the occurrence of deep and permanent paradigm shifts. Is itconstructive to view the ageing issue as demanding a permanent paradigmshift that will irrevocably alter the structure of the welfare system? If so,how does one prepare a system for such a dramatic structural realignment?The Perfect Storm: Perhaps the Silver Wave represents the incrediblyunlikely confluence of a number of different powerful variables, one thatmay be compared to a perfect storm descending upon the Nordic Model.While it may be unreasonable and even impossible to adequately preparefor such a scenario, the severity of its potential effects demand that it beconsidered and that preparations be made. Is it meaningful to cast the challengesof the Finnish welfare state in such a drastic light? (One where theonly option is to prepare for the total replacement of the welfare system?)If so, how does one design a new system and still retain aspects of existingsystem?286