Recipes for Systemic Change - Helsinki Design Lab

over time. Research has shown increasing temperatures generally result inincreased emissions from soils and forests, suggesting that Finland's carbonsink capacity will decline under pressure from global warming. In addition,they are potentially reversible due to human activity such as misguidedpolicies, poor management and over-harvesting.Even with robust management and careful monitoring, carbon sinksmay have limited impact on a country's true carbon footprint. With thebulk of Finland's carbon stocks processed into nondurable goods, the truevalue of its carbon sink is unclear.D1.3 Foresight ReportThe Government Foresight Report on Long-term Climate and EnergyPolicy is a recent and significant development in the government's approachto the de-carbonization challenge. The document assembles research onthe potential to limit climate change and the costs, impacts and efficacy ofclimate policy. It suggests that Finland could become a leader in climateprotection, but does not call for this directly.The report includes four model pathways to move Finland toward a lowcarbon future:➢ Pathway A is an "Efficiency Revolution" where Finland's economicstructure transitions to become dominated by services and advances inenergy efficiency lead to a 50 percent reduction in final energy consumption.All remaining energy is supplied with renewable sources and nuclearenergy production is ended.➢ Pathway B is a "Sustainable Daily Mile" strategy where Finland'spopulation becomes centralised in a few urban centres, transportation isdramatically reduced and services replace consumption. Energy is providedby increased nuclear power production and the share of renewable energy isincreased to two-thirds of the final energy consumption.➢ Pathway C is an effort to "Be Self-sufficient" where Finland's populationremains dispersed and highly efficient single-family homes producetheir own energy. The current fleet size of light-duty vehicles remains stablebut zero-emission vehicles replace emitters. The share of renewable energyis increased to four-fifths of final demand and industry creates its ownenergy with bio-refineries.➢ Pathway D assumes that "Technology is the Key" and leverages ahighly networked population and technological advances to reduce emissions.Rural areas are de-populated by moving the population to suburbanand urban areas in southern Finland. Zero-emission vehicles and a highspeedtrain network meet increasing transportation demands. Fossil fuelbasedenergy production remains high, necessitating the development andimplementation of carbon capture and storage. Nuclear power productionis increased dramatically to keep pace with rising demand.223