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operations flexibility in process industries - Roland Berger Strategy ...

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1DEVELOP BUSINESS SCENARIOSEstablish<strong>in</strong>g <strong>flexibility</strong> starts with creat<strong>in</strong>g different bus<strong>in</strong>ess scenariosand assess<strong>in</strong>g the related cost and benefits of <strong>flexibility</strong>Determ<strong>in</strong>ants of <strong>flexibility</strong> valueDifferent bus<strong>in</strong>ess scenarios trigger the needto evaluate cost and effects of becom<strong>in</strong>g moreflexible. Bus<strong>in</strong>ess scenarios can be calculatedwith different time horizons and <strong>in</strong>cidentprobabilitiesEBITScenario AOccurswithprobabilityThe cost of becom<strong>in</strong>g more flexible aredeterm<strong>in</strong>ed by the actual degree of <strong>flexibility</strong>and the cost of implement<strong>in</strong>g additional<strong>flexibility</strong> measures. The type of measures tobe implemented crucially depends on the timehorizon of the bus<strong>in</strong>ess scenariosNo<strong>in</strong>vestment<strong>in</strong> <strong>flexibility</strong>IncidentP AThe benefits from <strong>flexibility</strong> are the effectsresult<strong>in</strong>g from the measures implementeddur<strong>in</strong>g the realization of one of the possiblebus<strong>in</strong>ess scenarios<strong>in</strong>vestment<strong>in</strong> <strong>flexibility</strong>Scenario BOccursCost of becom<strong>in</strong>g more flexibleEBIT development scenario AGa<strong>in</strong>s from <strong>flexibility</strong> scenario AEBIT development scenario BGa<strong>in</strong>s from <strong>flexibility</strong> scenario BwithprobabilityP B22AirbusTIMESource: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong><strong>in</strong>terview

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