operations flexibility in process industries - Roland Berger Strategy ...

1 DEMAND FLEXIBILITYPredicting yearly flu types is very difficult for the pharmaceuticalindustry – demand for one serum can be very high or zeroExample: Flu serumDemanddemand for specificvirus (later: type A)• Serum has to be reproduced every year, as the virustransforms every year• Inventories are therefore not possible• WHO gives a yearly recommendation, which serumshould be produced/normally three types of viruses arecovered• Development of year specific serum takes up to 6 months• Extremely high demand of incubated eggs for repro-duction of antibodies (Impfviren), capacities are limited• Serum manufacturers expect that demand will doublewithin the next 10 years, resulting in production capacitiesrestraintsReal demandfor type Ademandtyoe Cdemandtype BAutumn Summer Fall WinterSource: Pandemic Report 2006tBackgroundProblem• Only one serum is really needed for one specific type• Production capacities have to be extremely flexible toreact to a specific demand• Limited production capacities15