14. starptautiskā konference 2012 - Latvijas Jūras akadēmija

Air temperature, deg CWater temperature, deg CProceedings of 14th International conference „Maritime Transport and Infrastructure - 2012”This research implements calculations and parameters-related average indicators and values inthe profile of perennial dynamic. The changes of the parameters per 100 years have been calculated;for instance, temperature changes ºC/100 years, or water level changes cm/100 years.1. TemperatureThe analysis of water and air temperature data for time period from 1963 to 2011 deliversimpression, that Global Warming process is ultimately in force, because average air temperature hasgrown up by 4.1 ºC/100 years, and, accordingly, water temperatureby 2.3 ºC/100 year. The correlationfactor between these two parameters is 0.8, meaning tight mutual alignment of data (Fig.1).987y = 0.0411x - 75.066131211654321098761y = 0.0234x - 40.2195041962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012YearsAir Water Linear (Water) Linear (Air)Fig.1. Annual average air temperature measurements in Riga and water temperature in Bay of Rigaat time period 1963-2011However, analysis of the data for longer time period provides the dynamic of considerablyless air temperature growth. Average growth for several previous centuries is just 0.31 o C/100 years,and, when calculation time span is being widened up, the trends of temperature growth considerablydecrease accordingly (Fig.2, Table 1).The above mentioned data quite clearly demonstrate, that concept and assumption about theexistence of Global Warming as a reality phenomenon is strongly doubtful, at least within the regionof the Baltic Sea. The processing of these data leads to an assumption, that there are short term andlong term natural cycles of climatic changes, and yet, we are not quite capable to figure them out.There are some written literary approvals on that, for instance, the book by O. Aboltins about thenatural processes at time period after the glacial era and global warming, as well as other writtenmaterials. So, for instance, book of Aboltins describes the trends of temperature changes upon the endof last glacial era, when there were at least three particular periods of time with much high average airtemperature compared with nowadays. These periods of higher temperatures occurred nearly 2000years before, 4000 years before, and 6500 years before. It means that there is no solid ground forstipulations, that intensive temperatures growth is being observed only within the period of lastcenturies [5, 6].123