14. starptautiskÄ konference 2012 - Latvijas JÅ«ras akadÄmija

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Proceedings of 14th International conference „Maritime Transport and Infrastructure - 2012”THE GLOBAL WARMING IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE AND WATERLEVEL CHANGES IN LATVIAViesturs Bērziņš*, Aleksandrs Pavlovičs**, Ilmārs Lešinskis*BIOR Fishery Department, Marine laboratory,8 Daugavgrīvas str., Riga, LatviaE-mail:Viesturs.Berzins@bior.gov.lv** Latvian Maritime Academy, 5B Flotes str., LV-1016, Latvia, E-mail: info@latja.lv*** Riga Technical University, Kaļķu-1, LV-1658, Latvia, E-mail: Ilmars.Lesinskis@latja.lvAbstractThe title analyses fluctuations and changes of some hydrometeorology parameters of Latvian coastalarea in relation with the global warming, covering the time period of last centuries: watertemperature changes in Bay of Riga, air temperature changes in the City of Riga, as well as thealterations of the water level in Venstpils and Daugava river basin. The findings reveal, that lastcenturies dynamic of the air temperature fluctuations is being expressed as the cyclic process,however, there is not considerable temperature growth monitored. The average tempo of water levelgrowth in the area is considerably less than as compared with the records from last Glacial Era’sfinal phase. The global warming process is being continuing after the end of last Glacial Era up tonow, and there is no solid ground for assumption, that this process has been facilitated nowadays.KEY WORDS: temperature, levels of water, globalwarmingIntroductionSo called ”global warming” trends, the process which is being continuously discussed anddescribed during last decades, is directly associated with the common tendencies of water and airtemperature growth, as well as augmentations in the levels of water and other different climaticphenomenon and processes. Hereinafter some hydrometeorology parameters of Latvian coastal areaare being analysedin direct relation with the warming; namely,temperature changes in Bay of Riga, airtemperature changes in the City of Riga and in vicinity, as well as water levels alterations in theVentspils and Daugavgriva (Daugava river basin).Data provided from Fishery Department’s Marine laboratory (BIOR) has been used fordynamic of water temperature changes in the Bay of Riga (before 1991 – Baltic Fishing IndustryResearch Institute, BaltNIIRH, 1991-2004 – Latvian Fishing Research Institute, LZPI, 2004-2010 –Latvian Fish Resource Agency, LZRA). Average water temperaturein the Bay of Riga is beingcalculated using the observations, which are equalized in adherence to average seasonal calendardatum and in pro-rata to layers volumes [1].Air temperaturedata series for the City of Riga are erratic due to changing methods ofobservations in the Riga and vicinity, as well as there are some time-gaps in observations. Since 1795up to 1960 observations were conducted in the University of Riga-with the omissions at time periodsfrom 1814 till 1823. In some time periods observations have been conducted in Jelgava, Spilve,Daugavgriva,suburbs of St. Petersburg and these observations have been rendered to related data fromRiga, using transient coefficients [2]. At time period from 1960 to 1973, observations have beenconducted in Riga Observatory; from 1973 to 1991 at Riga Airport [3]. The period 1992- 2009 iscovered by dynamic observation data from Website FOBOS, weather station at Riga Airport,http://www.gismeteo.ru/catalog/latvia/; further observations after 2009 have been extracted fromWebiste WINDGURU, from location in Riga (Kisezers DA), Web: http://www.windguru.cz/.Observations on the water levels alterations in Ventspils and Daugava river basinare retrievedfrom the publications of Latvian Hydrometeorology Administration [4].122
Air temperature, deg CWater temperature, deg CProceedings of 14th International conference „Maritime Transport and Infrastructure - 2012”This research implements calculations and parameters-related average indicators and values inthe profile of perennial dynamic. The changes of the parameters per 100 years have been calculated;for instance, temperature changes ºC/100 years, or water level changes cm/100 years.1. TemperatureThe analysis of water and air temperature data for time period from 1963 to 2011 deliversimpression, that Global Warming process is ultimately in force, because average air temperature hasgrown up by 4.1 ºC/100 years, and, accordingly, water temperatureby 2.3 ºC/100 year. The correlationfactor between these two parameters is 0.8, meaning tight mutual alignment of data (Fig.1).987y = 0.0411x - 75.066131211654321098761y = 0.0234x - 40.2195041962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012YearsAir Water Linear (Water) Linear (Air)Fig.1. Annual average air temperature measurements in Riga and water temperature in Bay of Rigaat time period 1963-2011However, analysis of the data for longer time period provides the dynamic of considerablyless air temperature growth. Average growth for several previous centuries is just 0.31 o C/100 years,and, when calculation time span is being widened up, the trends of temperature growth considerablydecrease accordingly (Fig.2, Table 1).The above mentioned data quite clearly demonstrate, that concept and assumption about theexistence of Global Warming as a reality phenomenon is strongly doubtful, at least within the regionof the Baltic Sea. The processing of these data leads to an assumption, that there are short term andlong term natural cycles of climatic changes, and yet, we are not quite capable to figure them out.There are some written literary approvals on that, for instance, the book by O. Aboltins about thenatural processes at time period after the glacial era and global warming, as well as other writtenmaterials. So, for instance, book of Aboltins describes the trends of temperature changes upon the endof last glacial era, when there were at least three particular periods of time with much high average airtemperature compared with nowadays. These periods of higher temperatures occurred nearly 2000years before, 4000 years before, and 6500 years before. It means that there is no solid ground forstipulations, that intensive temperatures growth is being observed only within the period of lastcenturies [5, 6].123
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14. starptautiskÄ konference 2012 - Latvijas JÅ«ras akadÄmija