Youth Employment Programs - Independent Evaluation Group

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• Chapter Highlights• High youth unemployment, regardless of education level, is an important issue formiddle-income countries.• In low-income countries, youth from poor families often work for family businessesor farms, or in low-earning jobs in the informal sector. They often work under poorconditions as unpaid laborers, and are more likely to be among the working poor thanadults.• Youth employment issues are major concerns because they affect the welfare of youngpeople and potentially the long-term performance and stability of the rest of theeconomy.A growing economy and a stable macroeconomic and political environmentare fundamental conditions for job creation and employment for all agegroups. This is the primary requirement for increasing employment overall,and youth employment as a consequence. Yet even where growth is positive,youth differ from adults in the labor, asset, and credit markets. Onedifference is that employers have imperfect information about the skills andproductivity of young applicants, and youth are uncertain about the type ofemployer and job they want (Begg and Blanchflower 2000). As a result, youthhave a higher job turnover rate than adults and take longer to find work.Another difference is that youth are more likely to be among the workingpoor than adults. In addition, they are at higher risk of unemployment,underemployment, or working in jobs with low earnings. The early worksituation of young people has welfare consequences for their future.Addressing youth employment issues is a major concern for governmentseverywhere, and is all the more challenging where stable economicpolicies are not in place and institutions are weak. This report is the firstIndependent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluation of the World Bank Group’ssupport to clients seeking to address youth employment problems.The Nature of the Youth Employment ProblemYouth unemployment rates are everywhere considerably higher than adultrates, but the nature of the problem varies widely by country context. In 2011,the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated that 12.6 percent ofyouth in the global labor force are unemployed, corresponding to about 74.6million youth. The global youth to adult unemployment ratio is 2.8. But theseratios vary substantially across time and across countries. In Southeast Asia,for example, the ratio has increased most over the past decade (table 1.1).Lack of growth and job creation contribute to higher youth unemployment inall countries. As the economy shrinks with the business cycle, youth—oftenthe least educated—are the first to be let go, most without a social safetysystem to protect them against the financial risk related to unemployment.2 Youth Employment Programs
Table 1.1Youth Employment Indicators, by Percent, and RegionYouthlabor forceparticipationrateYouthunemploymentrateYouth-to-adultemployment ratio1998 2010 1998 2010 1998 2010World 53.8 48.8 12.5 12.7 2.7 2.8Developed economies and EuropeanUnionCentral and Southeastern Europe, andCommonwealth of Independent States52.6 47.5 14.3 17.9 2.4 2.443.3 42.0 22.6 19.4 2.3 2.5East Asia 68.5 60.3 9.4 8.8 2.7 2.7Southeast Asia and Pacific 53.9 52.5 12.2 13.6 4.8 4.9South Asia 48.9 41.3 9.0 9.9 3.8 4.5Latin America and Caribbean 55.6 52.8 15.6 14.4 2.6 2.7Middle East 32.5 30.3 24.0 25.5 3.9 4.1North Africa 36.4 33.6 26.6 23.8 3.5 3.8Sub-Saharan Africa 53.7 53.6 13.8 12.5 2.0 2.0Source: ILO 2011a.Note: The ILO defines youth as an age group of between 15 to 24 years. An unemployedperson is not employed, but actively looking for work. Labor force participation rate is thepercentage of the working age population who are employed or unemployed and looking forwork. The youth unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force ages 15–24 withoutwork, but available for work.In several middle-income countries, half of the youth workforce isnow unemployed. In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD) countries, the recent economic crisis has increased youthunemployment to more than 40 percent (for example, in Spain and Greece).Only in Africa, which already has the largest youth bulge, will the youthcohort continue to grow. Almost half (42 percent) of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa is under the age of 14 years. Between 2010 and 2020, thenumber of youth living in the region is expected to increase by 42.5 million(Bloom 2011; Proctor 2012). In most countries, wage employment is notgrowing fast enough to absorb these youth, and they will continue to work inthe informal sector (Fox and Sohnesen 2012).Some countries have voluntary unemployment among higher-incomeyouth who have higher reservation than market wages, and benefit fromfamily support while waiting for a “better job” (Rama 1999). When workingconditions and pay vary across jobs and sectors, the labor market can becomesegmented (Fields 2007). Access to social networks and better jobs is generallyrestricted to more privileged members of society who have connectionsWhy Focus on Youth Employment? 3
Page 5 and 6: Youth EmploymentProgramsAn Evaluati
Page 8 and 9: The Bank’s Impact Evaluations on
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Page 26 and 27: Management Action RecordIEG Finding
Page 28 and 29: IEG Findings and ConclusionsIEG Rec
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Page 35: could have focused more on the lack
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Page 44 and 45: ReferencesBegg, David, Stanley Fisc
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Page 63 and 64: school dropouts early. Learning opp
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Page 67 and 68: Agriculture, Health, Education, Soc
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farm self-employment and employment
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This appendix presents the factors
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Organization for Standardization (I
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Box A.3Youth as a Demographic Divid
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Table A.1Types of Youth Employment
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Notes1. This phenomenon could be le
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Appendix BEvaluation Data Sources a
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Identification and Analysis of the
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• Making the labor market work be
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Table B.3ApprovalFYList of Projects
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Table B.3ApprovalFYList of Projects
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Table B.4(I)nvestmentClimate(L)abor
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Table B.6List of Economic Sector Wo
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ment, Private Sector Development, a
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Other evaluations with outcome meas
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Table B.8CountryFranceKenyaMexicoPa
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Table B.8CountryUnitedStatesYouth E
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Table B.8CountryEuropeancountriesLa
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Bidani, Benu, Niels-Hugo Blunch, Ch
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Training Replication Sites.” Manp
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Appendix C provides additional info
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Box C.2Global Partnership for Youth
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ReferencesAedo, Cristian, and Ian W
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This appendix provides additional i
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The number of projects and total le
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Figure D.2World Bank Youth Employme
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Table D.5Intervention categoryYouth
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Table D.7Prevalence of Project Obje
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Table D.9Target Groups of Project O
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Table D.11Type of Interventions Sup
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Table D.13 Frequently Used Youth Em
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In sum, this portfolio review chapt
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approach in Turkey and Sierra Leone
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This appendix presents a detailed a
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to Finance business line, over a si
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entrepreneurship projects. Investme
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IFC has three types of investments
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Box E.1Africa Schools ProgramIFC su
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Box E.2e4e Initiative for Arab Yout
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3. IFC’s Advisory Services corpor
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This appendix presents lessons for
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Labor Market RegulationsLabor marke
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to the definition of unemployment b
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In post-conflict zones with small f
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Public works programs in Bank proje
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marginal impact of school-to-work t
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of the program. However, results fo
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• Weak results frameworks on the
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sustainability. Zambia’s TEVET pr
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unemployed youth registered with th
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for Employment and Entrepreneurship
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Note1. The Technical and Vocational
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Ibarraran, Pablo, and David Rosas.
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World Bank. 2012a. “World Bank an
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IEG’s Youth Employment Evaluation
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Figure G.1 Facebook Demographics Ba
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Figure G.3Results on Rural Employme
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BibliographyBarrera, Felipe, Paul G
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———. 2011b. Migration and Rem
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The World Bank GroupWorking for a W
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Youth Employment Programs - Independent Evaluation Group

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