Market Mover - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Key Data Preview150100500-50-100-150Chart 15: Canadian Employment (thousands)Monthly ChangeFull-TimeJan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11Sources: Reuters EcoWin ProPart-TimeOct (f) Sep Aug JulUnemployment rate % 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.2Payroll jobs (k) 20.0 60.9 -5.5 7.1BNP Paribas Forecast: ModeratingCanada: Labour Report (October)Release Date: Friday 4 NovemberCanadian employment is forecast to improve by 20k inOctober following a whopping 60.9k increase in the previousmonth. The volatility in employment growth has beenexacerbated over the past four months. We have seenanywhere from the positive surprise in September toAugust’s contraction of 5.5k jobs. Nevertheless, the 6maverage pace of employment growth is now running at 28.6kper month, up from the recent trough of 18.2k in August.Despite the improvement, we saw a spike in public sectoremployment (up 36.9k) in September while the private sectorlost 14.9k and self-employment rose 38.9k. Overall, whilethe report suggested some ongoing strength in the(public) services sector, it is unlikely to last while theprivate sector and goods producing industries struggle togenerate employment. On balance, we forecast theunemployment rate to remain at 7.1% as a result of a smalldecrease in the labour force participation rate.Key Point:We expect the pace of employment growth to slow inOctober after a spike in September showed labourmarket imbalances with strength in public services andthe private and manufacturing employment lagging.Market Economics 27 October 2011Market Mover78www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Economic Calendar: 7 Nov – 2 Dec7 Nov 8 Nov 9 Nov 10 Nov 11 NovJapan: Leading IndicatorSepEurozone: Retail SalesSepGermany: IndustrialProduction SepNorway: IndustrialProduction SepSwitz: CPI OctUS: Consumer CreditSepMarket Economics 27 October 2011Market MoverAustralia: NAB BusinessSurvey OctUK: BRC Retail SalesMonitor Oct, RICS HousePrices Oct, IndustrialProduction SepGermany: Trade BalanceSepFrance: Trade BalanceSepNeths: IndustrialProduction SepUS: NFIB Small BusinessOptimism OctAustralia: WestpacConsumer ConfidenceNovJapan: Current AccountSepUK: Trade Balance SepFrance: BoF Survey Oct,Investment Survey Oct,Budget Balance SepSweden: IndustrialProduction Sep, RiksbankMonetary Policy MinutesUS: Wholesale Trade SepAustralia: Labour OctJapan: M2 Oct,Machinery Orders SepEurozone: ECB BulletinUK: BoE RateAnnouncementGermany: CPI OctFrance: CPI Oct, IP SepItaly: IP SepNeths: CPI OctSweden: CPI OctNorway: CPI Oct, PPI OctUS: Trade Balance Sep,Import Prices Oct, UoMSentiment (Prel) Nov,Treasury Statement OctDuring Week: Germany WPI Oct14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 NovJapan: GDP (Prel) Q3Eurozone: IndustrialProduction SepFrance: Current AccountSepAustralia: MPC MinutesEurozone: Trade BalanceSep, GDP (Flash) Q3UK: CPI OctGermany: GDP (Prel)Q3, ZEW Survey NovFrance: GDP (Prel) Q3,NF Payrolls (Prel) Q3,Wages (Prel) Q3Spain: CPI OctItaly: EU Trade Bal SepNeths: GDP Q3, RetailSales SepUS: Empire State SurveyNov, Retail Sales Oct,PPI Oct, Bus Inv SepJapan: BoJ RateAnnouncementEurozone: HICP Oct,EU15 New CarRegistrations OctUK: BoE Inflation Report,Labour OctSpain: GDP (Final) Q3Italy: CPI OctUS: CPI Oct, IndustrialProduction Oct, TICSData Sep, NAHB HMI NovEurozone: GoverningCouncil Meeting (No RateAnnouncement)UK: Retail Sales OctSweden: Labour OctNeths: Labour OctUS: New Home StartsOct, Philly Fed SurveyNov21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 25 NovJapan: BoJ MonetaryPolicy Meeting Minutes,Trade Balance OctEurozone: CurrentAccount SepItaly: Non-EU TradeBalance OctUS: Existing Home SalesOctUK: PPI Oct, PSNB Oct,PSNCR OctNorway: GDP Q3US: GDP (Final) Q3,Corporate Profits Q3Japan: HolidayEurozone: Ind OrdersSep, PMIs (Flash) NovUK: BoE MPC MinutesFrance: Industry SurveyNovNorway: Labour SepUS: Durable GoodsOrders Oct, PICE Oct,UoM Sentiment (Final)Nov, FOMC MinutesUK: GDP (Prel) Q3Germany: GDP (Final)Q3, Ifo Survey NovItaly: Cons Conf NovSweden: ConsumerConfidence Nov, PPI OctNeths: ProducerConfidence NovBelgium: BusinessConfidence NovUS: HolidayDuring Week: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Dec, Retail Sales Oct, Import Price Index Oct28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov 1 Dec 2 DecEurozone: MonetaryDevelopments OctGermany: CPI (Prel) NovFrance: Job Seekers OctSweden: Retail SalesOct, Trade Balance OctUS: New Home Sales OctJapan: Labour Oct,Household ConsumptionOct, Retail Sales OctEurozone: Business &Consumer Survey (Nov),EU Finance MinistersMeet in BrusselsFrance: Housing StartsOctItaly: Wages OctSpain: HICP (Flash) Nov,Retail Sales OctBelgium: CPI NovSweden: GDP Q3US: S&P/Case-ShillerHome Prices Sep, FHFAHPI Sep, ConsumerConfidence NovJapan: IP Oct, HousingStarts OctEurozone: HICP (Flash)Nov, Labour OctUK: GfK Cons Conf NovGermany: Labour OctFrance: Retail Sales Oct,PPI OctSweden: CA Q3Norway: Retail Sales OctItaly: CPI (Prel) Nov, PPIOct, Labour OctSwitzerland: KoF NovUS: ADP Labour Nov, Prod& Costs (Final) Q3, BeigeBook, Chicago PMI Nov,Pending Home Sales Oct,Challenger Layoffs Nov,Canada: GDP SepAustralia: Retail SalesOctEurozone: ManufacturingPMI (Final) NovUK: BoE PressConference & FinancialPolicy StatementSwitzerland: GDP Q3,PMI NovUS: ISM ManufacturingNov, Construction OctJapan: CGPI Oct, TertiaryIndex SepUK: PPI OctSpain: GDP (Flash) Q3Sweden: PES Labour OctHoliday: France, USGermany: PPI OctItaly: Industrial Orders SepNeths: ConsumerConfidence NovBelgium: ConsumerConfidence NovUS: Leading Indicators OctCanada: CPI OctJapan: CPI Tokyo Nov, CPINational OctFrance: ConsumerConfidence NovItaly: Retail Sales SepSpain: PPI OctEurozone: PPI OctNorway: UnemploymentNovUS: Labour NovCanada: Labour NovDuring Week: UK Nationwide House Prices Nov, Halifax House Prices NovSource: BNP ParibasRelease dates as at c.o.b. prior to the date of this publication. See our Daily Spotlight for any revisions79www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
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Market Economics | Interest Rate St
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ECB to remain active onliquidity me
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The November FOMC meeting is the fi
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further actions to support stronger
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this figure by starting with CoreLo
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While a downgrade would not have a
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Low for longAs a result of the afor
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In September, we estimated 2012 Fre
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a fairly significant change in the
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Japan: Exports Slow on End of Catch
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Japan: Lessons from a ‘Lewis Turn
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durable consumer goods became commo
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Australia: Not Yet• Having been f
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Page 29 and 30: Restrictive lending conditions coul
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Page 42 and 43: EMU Debt Monitor: Trade IdeasThis s
Page 52 and 53: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 54 and 55: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 56 and 57: TIPS: A Pause Before a New Jump?Thi
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Page 72 and 73: Key Data PreviewChart 3: Japanese P
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