Market Mover - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

This section is classified as non-objective researchTechnical Analysis – Interest Rates & CommoditiesBond & Short-Term Contracts• Europe 10y: Still a ST bottoming/up bias above 2.06 (H&S neckline) for 2.41 target• US 10y: Still a ST bottoming/up bias and a rising wave “5” scenario developing towards 2.40/47 targets• Short-term contracts h2: Toppish/weak bias on Euribor (2-top) and weak one on ED within MT falling channelEquities & Commodities• WTI (Cl1): Now up ST above falling channel and now 90.52 (2-dip neckline) for 99 area first and then 106 target• Equity markets: ST bottoming/up bias developing from Sept/Oct lows with new tops printedUS 10y: Breaks above ST falling channel/triangle call for 2.40/47 target MT Trend: Down Range: 2.20/2.40MT SCENARIO remains downThe breaks below 2.50 (LT triangle support),2.33 (2010 low) and then 2.03 (2008 low),above which we are back, strengthened theMT falling bias to reach MT 138.2% extensionof 2010/2011 rise at 1.78. Main risk if fallresumes and breaks below 1.93 (61.8%) toextend fall towards 1.67 low and then 1.50(LT falling channel support).1.93 2.72ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO…Rise extendsST bottoming/up bias is under way, sustainedby rising divergences on weekly RSI, andbreak above daily ST falling channel and nowST triangle for a move first towards 2.40/ 2.47(channel & triangle breaks target). Note alsoon daily chart the risk of a rising wave “5”scenario developing towards 2.47 target also.STRATEGYKeep short if you are above 2.06 for2.40/2.47. Could add above 2.26/2.29WTI: Break above ST falling channel & 2-dip neckline opened way up for 99 MT Trend: Weak Range: 90.0/98.0MT SCENARIO is still down83.57