Market Mover - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation ForecastsCanada Norway AustraliaCPI Core CPI Headline CPI CoreCPICoreIndex % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y2010 116.5 1.8 115.6 1.7 128.8 2.4 120.1 1.4 172.6 2.8 - 2.82011 (1) 119.9 3.0 117.6 1.8 130.5 1.3 121.4 1.1 178.7 3.5 - 2.62012 (1) 123.2 2.7 120.1 2.1 132.4 1.5 123.6 1.8 183.5 2.7 - 2.6Q1 2011 119.4 3.3 2.0 117.0 0.7 1.6 130.2 0.6 1.4 120.3 -0.2 0.8 176.7 1.6 3.3 - - 2.4Q2 2011 119.8 5.6 2.5 117.1 3.4 1.5 130.9 0.6 1.4 121.5 1.0 1.0 178.3 0.9 3.6 - - 2.8Q3 2011 120.6 0.8 2.8 118.4 1.6 1.6 130.1 -0.7 1.5 121.2 -0.3 1.1 179.4 0.6 3.5 - - 2.5Q4 2011 (1) 121.1 2.2 3.0 118.9 3.2 1.8 130.7 0.5 1.0 122.6 1.1 1.7 180.2 0.4 3.6 - - 2.6Q1 2012 (1) 122.4 3.1 3.1 119.5 1.6 2.0 131.2 0.4 0.8 122.6 0.0 1.9 181.5 0.7 2.7 - - 2.5Q2 2012 (1) 123.6 4.8 2.9 119.8 1.7 2.1 132.5 1.0 1.2 123.8 1.0 1.9 182.4 0.5 2.3 - - 2.4Q3 2012 (1) 123.6 1.2 2.9 120.6 2.3 2.2 132.5 0.0 1.9 123.6 -0.2 2.0 184.3 1.1 2.8 - - 2.8Q4 2012 (1) 124.2 0.8 2.7 121.1 1.9 2.1 133.4 0.7 2.1 124.5 0.7 1.6 185.5 0.6 2.9 - - 2.8UpdatedNextReleaseOct 21Oct CPI (Nov 18)Oct 10Oct CPI (Nov 10)Oct 26Q4 CPI (Jan 25)Source: BNP Paribas, (1) ForecastsChart 8: Canadian Headline vs. Core CPI (% y/y)4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0BoC CPI Core (% y/y)BoC Mid-Point Inflation TargetCPI Total (% y/y)04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP ParibasWage pressures appear subdued, suggesting that underlyinginflation will soon move back within the BoC's target range.7.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0(% y/y)Chart 9: Australian CPI (% y/y)Headline CPIUnderlying CPIBNPPFcast-1.0Q193 Q195 Q197 Q199 Q101 Q103 Q105 Q107 Q109 Q111 Q113Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP ParibasUnderlying inflation is forecast to tick slightly higher in Q4, from2.5% y/y to 2.6%. This should push headline inflation 0.1pp up to3.6% y/y.CPI Data Calendar for the Coming WeekDay GMT Economy Indicator Previous BNPP F’cast ConsensusFri 28/10 23:30 Japan CPI National y/y : Sep 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%23:30 Core CPI National y/y : Sep 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%23:30 CPI Tokyo y/y : Oct -0.2% -0.5% -0.5%23:30 Core CPI Tokyo y/y : Oct -0.1% -0.4% -0.4%07:00 Spain HICP Flash y/y : Oct 3.0% 2.9% 2.9%Mon 31/10 10:00 Eurozone HICP (Flash) y/y : Oct 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%10:00 Italy CPI (NIC, Prel) m/m : Oct 0.0% 0.3% n/a10:00 CPI (NIC, Prel) y/y : Oct 3.0% 3.1% n/a10:00 HICP (Prel) m/m : Oct 2.0% 0.8% n/a10:00 HICP (Prel) y/y : Oct 3.6% 3.6% n/aRelease dates and forecasts as at c.o.b. prior to the date of publication: See Daily Economic Spotlight for any revisionSource: BNP ParibasLuigi Speranza/Gizem Kara/Dominique Barbet 27 October 2011Market Mover54www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com