THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ...

Government Programme Documentexpected to exceed previous projections for the sector due to new Government priorities,particularly the renewed focus on expanding Tanzania’s irrigation infrastructure.In the absence of approved budget guidelines from the Ministry of Finance, the assessment ofASDP’s consistency with the sector MTEF ceiling has been based on the 2006/07 budget requestssubmitted by the ASLMs. Based on these requests, the 2006/07 sectoral ceiling is estimated atTshs. 291 billion (Table 7), which represents an increase of 91% over last year’s ceiling.Significant increases in 2007/08 are also expected as the District Irrigation Fund is established.The increased expenditure is expected to be financed by new commitments from theGovernment’s general budget support funds and external donor support.Table 7: Estimated Agriculture Sector Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) Ceilings *(Tshs billion)ASLM 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09MAFC 112.9 228.4 238.5 272.0MLD 13** 34.89 33.94 35.36MITM 7.7** 9.35 9.7 12.1PMO-RALG 18.4*** 18.4 45.1 46.8Total 152.0 291.0 327.2 366.3* Based on approved budgets for 05/06 and budget requests for 06/07-08/09, OC anddevelopment expenditures only except within PMO-RALG.** ASLM 05/06 expenditures include former MCM (Now department of MarketingDevelopment in MITM) and MWLD (Livestock Development now MLD). ASLM 06/07-08/09 expenditures include MITM sub-vote 4002: Marketing Development and MLD.*** PMO-RALG expenditures calculated from estimates of the base DistrictAgricultural Development Grant, district extension PE/OC and an anticipated DistrictIrrigation Fund beginning in 07/08.The share of ASDP expenditures is estimated within the MTEF is expected to grow over timeboth as the result of mainstreaming of existing projects into ASDP and sector restructuring andprioritization. There is scope for mainstreaming other donor projects into ASDP (Table 7).The increasing share of irrigation related expenditure will require changes to MTEF ceilings.ASDP expenditures will remain in line with expected MTEF ceilings only if expenditure ceilingsare raised to accommodate increased expenditures. Total programme costs are estimated at Tshs.168 billion and Tshs. 297 billion in 2006/2007 and 2007/2008. If sectoral ceilings are not raisedto anticipated levels, further reallocation within the sector will need to take place, including revisitingplanned ASDP expenditures.