Journal of European Integration History – Revue d'histoire de l'

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38Markus Schultelate this trend over the whole period up to 1964, and to take note of the deviationfrom this trend that occurred after 1959. The study is based on quarterly trade statisticsas published in the volumes (part 3) of Der Aussenhandel der Bundesrepublikand is done for the seven sectors of textiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals,non-ferrous metals, non-ferrous metal products, paper and paper products, machineryand electrical products 8 .The aims of the study were to find out about the actual import pressures thatalready existed in the absence of the free trade area and British EEC-membership.At the same time the study permits us to obtain a clearer picture of the importanceof individual export markets or competing foreign industries on the home market aswell as of the common market for individual industrial sectors. On this basis itbecomes clear that the fear of import competition from, say, the Scandinaviancountries did not necessarily concern the German home market but rather the prospectof a more or less significant opportunity cost in expanding export marketswithin the EEC. Overall the study enables us to judge with a greater degree of differentiationwhat the general impact of the EEC – EFTA division was, in what waythis situation differed according to individual sectors, which export markets wereof the greatest significance, where trade expanded the most, and whose competitionhad to be feared.Likely Winners from the FTA and British Accession.Machinery, Chemicals and Electrical EngineeringAmong the expanding sectors of German industry and hence among the likely winnersfrom a Europe-wide free trade arrangement were the chemical and pharmaceuticalsectors, electrical and electronic products, as well as the machinery industry.Together with the motor car industry and a number of other expanding sectors, theirprospects concerning the establishment of the EEC and the project of a Europewidefree trade area were broadly similar, a similarity related to their rapid and gen-7. Portugal has not been included in the present quantitative analysis given that its trade with Germanywas of minor importance in terms of the percentage share of overall German foreign trade and ascompared to trade with the other members of EFTA. In the pilot study to the present analysis, conductedon the basis of annual foreign trade data, sectoral trade data were often unavailable for Portugal.In view of this and in view of the minor importance of the Portuguese market for German exportindustries, Portugal has been omitted from this analysis, because it was felt that the immense amountof additional data entry and processing would not be in any reasonable relationship to the explanatoryvalue of the outcome that could be expected on the basis of the pilot study. It is also evident that,concerning the FTA, EFTA and British accession, German industry was mainly worried about thechanges in trade relations with Britain, the Scandinavian countries, Austria and Switzerland whereasPortugal figured only marginally if at all in any of the analyses and position papers coming from Germanindustry.8. STATISTISCHES BUNDESAMT [ed.], Der Aussenhandel der Bundesrepublik Deutschland undBerlins (West). Teil 3. Der Spezialhandel nach Bezugs- und Absatzgebieten und nach Warengruppenund -untergruppen. 1953-1964, Stuttgart 1954-1965.
Industrial Interest in West Germany´s Decision 39eral expansion on virtually all European markets. All of them were in favour of thefree trade area and British accession and were also likely to gain from the openingof the French and the Italian markets as well as from the abolition of other barriersto trade vis-à-vis the Seven, while none of them had to fear serious competition.The examination of the trade statistics of these three sectors will help assess towhat extent these expectations were met by the trade with the other EEC membersand the Seven. They will also highlight to what extent sectoral interests were actuallyvisible in terms of losses or opportunity costs in export markets as well asinroads made by foreign competitors into the home market of the respective sectors.Electrical Engineering and Electrical Products – ExportsThe value of exports of electrical products to the EEC starts from roughly DM75,000 in 1953 and rises to DM 550,000 at the end of 1964 while the value ofrespective exports to the EFTA ranges between DM 60,000 to DM 460,000 at thesame points in time. The more important observation is that exports to the EFTAcountries after 1959 continue to rise roughly along the 1953-58 trend line, whereasexports to the other EEC partners are clearly above that trend line after 1960. Therise in exports to the EEC is mostly attributable to trade with France. Starting froman extremely low level of less than DM 10,000 in the first quarter of 1953 the valueof exports doubles only by 1956. Export values are rising more steeply only afterthe third quarter of 1959. For Belgium-Luxembourg and the Netherlands exports ofelectrical products follow pretty much the 1953-58 trend line. The same is true forexports to Italy with the exception of the period after 1961 when values are clearlyabove the trend. Hence for the electrical engineering industry France was the marketwith the greatest growth potential which was realised immediately after thebeginning of the internal lowering of tariffs and quantitative restrictions in theEEC.
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